Sidefx wrote:
if we keep climbing the ladder and lose the 10% discount
Currently we have pick #9 (1355) and #17 (879) moving back to #10 (1276) and #18 (836) if Cochrane is called out before Cody.
If we finish in top 10 (no discount):
We better hope Richmond doesn't finish last and if they do, Sydney doesn't finish second or win the GF.
You're right Sidey. The picture can be even bleaker than the above. I have no doubt 3 of our 2026 and 2027 First picks, maybe 2026 2nd rounders, will be used on Walker. I hope its not 4 1sts (there could be a riot), but then again, if that means we end up playing in a Prelim or GF, that's the cost.
Lets see how we go against Hawks this week, because I think we can get to Wildcard 10th and beat WB, therefore 8th, then face Hawks. Beat the Hawks and we are facing a Prelim at the Gabba against Lions (dejavu). I expect us to land as high as 4th.
Crusader pointed out that points can get bleaker if/ when we add FA compo picks after the teams first pick who end up below Sydney. Your shift from 9 to 10 accounts for the Ports matching of the Cochrane bid, before us. Then there's the shift to the Sydney first rounder from compo picks for FA (Butters Bailey Williams King Fritsch Sparrow....what if we beat Lions...Neale compo...)
Add 20% to points required for pick 2 or 3, let alone 1....
Reduce points we have for our Sydney first round pick, pushed from 15,16,17,18 to 21, 22, 23, 24....
I don't want dannyboy to even have to think about this cost before our season is finished.
Que sera sera
As for who ends up with Pick 1 and the related nuances:
I don't think Effendopes will get off the bottom of the ladder, and hope they continue to desire our 2027 picks for Bewick.
Eff vs Bris, GWS, Haw, Adel, Geel, Syd, PA
Richmond no better but have a chance against of a win against WCE at the MCG.
I hope they both lose all their games.
If Effendopes win ONE game, and Tigers lose all their games, things just got Bleaker if Tigers call out Walker first, or 2nd.
Let GW and CD worry about that. But I'm not sure they factored our revival (let alone 7 wins in a row) and possibility of Finals when they decided to not tank after the Lions game.
I would love to beat the Hawks this week, to give us confidence when we face them next in Finals

I like the positivity Bondi.
4th might be a stretch but I wouldn't complain if we did get that high.
Fingers crossed the bottom of the ladder stays the way it is and the Dopes* don't bid on Cody first.