Seeing as we are in the top four after five rounds I thought I would have a look at how many teams manage to hang on to a top four place to the and of the season after being there in round 5. Based on the last ten years our odds at the moment are:

To make the Eight:

73%

To make the top Four:

40%

To make the Grand Final:

17%*

more details here: http://www.navyblueblog.com

I like those odds.

* If we stay top four till the end of the year.

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What are the odds of making the GF if we aren't top 4?

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And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

7%

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what are the odds of us finishing 9th?

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*(grow - fun - gah)

Yeah but whatabout your whataboutism.

Richmond%

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you are good at this

it was a trick question

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*(grow - fun - gah)

Yeah but whatabout your whataboutism.

If we don't beat Hawthorn this week , the odds won't mean a **** !

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Get the facts first.
Then you can distort them at your leisure.

Negative nellies invading another thread.

You do know we can still make top 4 even if we lose against Hawthorn? 16 more games to go you realise? Yep that's 16, only 2 of which I'm confident of not winning.

Jars figures are more than achievable if we win the games we are meant to win.

TEN PREMIERSHIPS IN A ROW...............!


kindest regards tommi

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that'siti'mnotchangingthistagain......!

Good thread! Made me have a look at the ladder over the past 10 years. Only once has the team in third spot after Round 5 not made the eight, Geelong finished 9th in 2002.

We'll have to fall over to miss the finals this year.

Call me if we beat the dawks.

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It's a small world, but I wouldn't want to paint it

Call you what?

*cough*


viewtopic.php?p=886250#p886250

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I'm not ready to focus on odds yet...still have my fingers, toes and eyes crossed before a game.

I'm with you.

It was only 1 week ago some of us were diving for the razor blades. (includes me).

If we get over the Hawks, or if we're still in the top 4 by R12, then I will start to BELIEVE.

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It's a small world, but I wouldn't want to paint it

This is why I love stats -when you dig deeper

Of those 10 seasons only 3 of the Round 5 3rd placers had a 3-2 start ( Sydney '07 - finished 7th, WCE '03 - finished 7th, Geelong '02 - finished 9th)

There were only 4 Top 4 finishes. All had a 4-1 start Dogs had a 4.5-0.5 start (Bulldogs '08 - finished 3rd , Brisbane '04 -finished 2nd, Port '01 -finished 3rd , Ess '99 -finished 1st)

The other 4-1 starts were (Collingwood '06 - finished 5th, Melbourne '05 - finished 7th, Geelong '00 - finished 5th)

More importantly total number of Flags won by the team in 3rd at R5 = 0

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Ecclesiastes 1:4, "One generation passes away, and another generation comes: but The Blues abide forever."

True. However, where we are on the ladder after Round 13 will be a better indicator.

we're doomed

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Top 8 this year

Top 4 next year

And wires too IIRC



Just making the finals will make me a happy chappy

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A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" -Winston Churchill

L.M 35-06