If you look under talkingcarlton on page 2 there is a topic called Ladder predictions, on the second page I posted a link I'm pretty sure.

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The climbing has alread began

Is anyone else still spewing about Rnd 1 when we went down to Ninthmond!

Sorry to bring it up but it may come back and bite us!

Anyway looking forward again we will flog the Crows this week and I'm heading off to put my money where my mouth is.

Judd showed no sign of soreness last week and I'm tipping him to tear the Crows a new one with 3 goals and 36 touches!

You heard it here first!

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I support the Navy Blues whatever happens!

And the two Bumbers games

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The climbing has alread began

I look at the momentum this side has & really only from Rnd 1 this season have they played "together".

No Judd, Stevens, Cloke, Kreuzer, Jamison last year plus others probably that I've failed to mention but if we look at the side that has been fielded this year in terms of time played "together" we will see that barring the first 3 games against Ric, StK & Ess, where this "team" were finding their feet together, we have won 8 of the last 14.

With kids like Murph, Gibbs, Grigg (etc) having to learn to play their roles with Judd, Stevo & the likes also takes time. ie from Rnd 1 to now.

So, with that spasmodic form of winning approx every 2 or 3 games, after the Bullies game has this side now reached a level of form, consistensy & understanding of each others roles within the team, that they will now go on a streak of wins, reach the finals (etc, etc, etc), or have they not yet reached the required aforementioned level & continue to play with the same spasmodic form & thus probably not make the finals this year?

That is the question?

I believe they have reached the required level, or would like to think they have after last weeks game & therefore will make the finals.

To put it another way, I believe after last week they now know how to play well enough together, to beat anyone on their day & the only ones that can stop that is themselves, by regressing from this current point.

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"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

We are two different teams from when we played in round 1 and today.

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“It is a state of mind, a system of belief, a way of seeing the world, a deep faith that, because you are Carlton, you belong to something great.” - Mike Fitzpatrick articulating what Out of the Blue means.

I still can't see us making the finals until we stop making so many turnovers.

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Mjonc signing off at 8888

Spot on.
Every single game we make ourselves look like amateurs by wayward kicks at the 50, and handballs to players who are about to get gang tackled.

In that respect we are exactly the same team we were last year, the same team we were in 07, the same team we were in 06.

Our roster, enthusiasm, game plan, and talent have all gone through the roof, but our basic skill errors are what separates us from the good teams.

I wont be very disappointed if we miss the finals this year - I'd rather concentrate on development. I love the work Carrots has done on his kicking, everyone else should put a priority on honing their skills to become contenders instead of pretenders.

I admit I'm one of the guilty masses who have been very harsh on Jordan Russell - I think he is a great barometer of our young team. When players like JR stop making as many flower-ups that cancel out the good things they do, then we'll know that we've arrived.

Patience!

Sorry. Don't think that's right. We don't make any more turnovers or errors than anyone else on any given day & we are certainly better than some of the top teams going around at the minute, on a week to week basis. Some weeks it depends on who you play which will sometimes determine (via the level of pressure applied) how many errors & mistakes you make & also how "attacking" a game style is played. See Geelong for example. They play a very attacking game & therefore have high amount of clangers, because they "dare" & take it on, but they get away with it because their efficiency is usually to always HIGH.

FACTS: (Superfooty Stats)

Rnd 17

CAR - 78% efficiency , 39 clangers
WB - 75% , 45

GEE - 79% , 59 **
HAW - 75% , 60

SYD - 73% , 48
ADE - 73% , 50

Rnd 16

CAR - 68% , 58 (not good)
SYD - 72% , 43

GEE - 78% , 60 **
WB - 69% , 57

HAW - 74% , 58
STK - 81% , 46

Rnd 15

CAR - 74% , 45
STK - 77% , 48

GEE - 78% , 55 **
FRE - 71% , 54

HAW - 67% , 60 **
SYD - 72% , 55 **

WB - 78% , 48
MEL - 76% , 47

Rnd 14

CAR - 73% , 33 (we won this one too!)
RIC - 77% , 32

GEE - 79% , 41
ADE - 76% , 57

WB - 80% , 49
PORT - 74% , 62

FACT: (Pro Stats AFL)

TEAM RANKINGS - ERRORS (Current averages)

1st - MELB - 107.6
2nd - GEE - 105.6 (1st on ladder)
3rd - FRE - 104.6
4th - PORT - 99.6
5th - SYD - 99.5 (4th on ladder)
6th - HAW - 98.4 (3rd on ladder)
7th - COLL - 97.4 (6th on ladder)
8th - ADE - 97.2 (7th on ladder)

9th - CAR - 97

12th - WB - 94.1 (2nd on ladder)

So you see, even the top teams have similar error totals, clangers & efficiency ratings that we do. I deliberately took the "upper teams" where possible to get the best possible benchmark in the competition. I only went back to Round 14 but I'm very confident if you went through every week the results would be similar & going back too far is pointless anyway because that's history too far past in the game of footy.

In the modern fast paced game of football ALL teams will have clangers, errors & mistakes, because that's the way the game is now played. You try & force more errors/turnovers than your opponent, in tight contested football

All teams rarely get above 80% efficiency for disposals weekly. Yes we can do better, but only in consistency. We are certainly not the worst team out there. Far from it in fact, so I think the guys need to be cut some slack on the turnovers & errors issue.

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"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

Great work Tiana con.

I have been keen to see some errors stats as I too think that people get too emotive over mistakes esp. from certain players.

I notice that every team makes errors and at critical times/areas of the ground as well, it is part of the game.

This is not to say that we wont see a continued improvement from our players as they get more confidence and belief in their ability, but it is good to see the ststa non the less

It's not how many turnovers or errors, it's the position on the ground and what it costs us on the scoreboard.

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Mjonc signing off at 8888

With all due respect mjonc, that's a fairly obvious comment, even for the most basic football follower, which I am not.

Also, I would have hoped that you would at least provide some reasoning as to why you think we will not make the finals, unless we stop turning the ball over as much &/or making as many mistakes, in areas of the ground that will & does hurt us on the scoreboard. If that is your view.

Considering, before you respond, the points that I have raised & the reasoning I have given for my view.

If not, that's fine too.

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"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

Great analysis TC. Just watching Hodge last week pass the ball to an opponent 4 times proves that they're all humans out there, and mistakes happen.

I agree that the level of pressure the opposition engages is going to reflect the number of clangers.

I think that mjonc is looking at our movement into the forwardline rather than the clangers as a stand alone figure.

If you consider the game gainst the Dogs or Swans, and nearly every game we played (bar Lions) we have come out and dominated only to miss opportunities from:

1. Taking shots from accute angles (degree of difficulty from our method of entry, not a clanger)
2. Missing shots from inaccurate kicking (clanger)
3. Looked for the Fev option exclusively only to see the surge stopped from a 3 on 1 advantage (not a clanger)

When we bring the ball in quicker as we did against the 'unaccountable' Doggies, and we look for options, and minimise our clangers we will all have the confidence in knowing we are heading for finals. Furthermore, we have to show this ability when playing more accountable teams, of which the Crows are (ultra defensive) and this week will determine if we have arrived or not.

In the meantime, we can only judge Carlton on their last quarter, and @#$%&! me dead, on that basis alone, we are finals bound; that's only 1 quarter though and not representative of our modus operandi for most of the season (of ups and downs from a very very young team).

Bluey44 wrote



Perhaps the kids are the real barometer given the make up of our team is mainly kids.

I think we are going to sneak in based on belief and improvement of the team all over the park (and the inclusion of Walker's strength and pace)...and if the form we have shown in the last month is an indicator as well as the draw teams above us have...the improvement implies we may even end up 5th (mathematically).

Our future is in our hands, and the Saints and Swans disappointments which incidently were the games to put us out of the race, may just provide the stimulus to seek satisfaction from playing better, rather than the disappointment from playing stop start and not playing bold fast moving footy.

Take the punt boys, roll the dice and attack; it's the best form of defense.

We've got nothing to lose; a beautiful place to be.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Cheers Bondi

Excellent post & I agree.

We do need to be better in front of goal & coming in to goal , to give a better account of ourselves towards &/or in the finals. I've said it before, bad kicking at goal is bad football, no different to missing a player with a pass or dropping a mark (etc).

I think we can all agree that turnovers & errors don't help & if the boys continue to play at a high level such as against the Bullies, consistently, we should be OK.

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"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

Tiana I'm not disagreeing with your points, they are correct, all teams do make mistakes and we aren't the worst.

I've got no stats to backup my argument (yet ), but I just think if the turnovers/errors are broken down into areas we would top the ladder within the top 10 teams for goals against from turnovers and accuracy from set shots on goal within 50, the other stat is our efficiency rate on rebound 50's.

If we play like the first half against the Bulldogs, that is why I think we won't make finals, we weren't a 6 goal worse team, but we butchered the ball badly and gave away easy goals, we do play like that for at least a quarter a game.

If we play like the second half then I'm already lining up for the F word tickets, but over the course of the season againt better teams I haven't seen enough consistency.

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Mjonc signing off at 8888

mjonc wrote



I agree and you don't need stats to know that if you've watched all games played this year.

It's an area we must improve.

In support of your point mjonc, we would be fixed in the 8 if we didn't lose winnable games for the reasons you mention, so yeah if we continue to play like that (such as the 1st half of the Dogies game), we only have ourselves to blame; it's an area we must improve in is we are to make it in the 8 this year, and next year.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

I'd like someone to pull out a stat to see which team has given up more goals in time-on in all quarters. Reckon we'll be pretty high on that list, and to be a finals threat we need to weed this out of our game.

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WADA medical director Dr Alan Vernec describes Essendon* FC drug case as biggest scandal in team sport the world of sport has seen. #WC2WB

#GUILTY

Now you know what I'm talking about.

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Mjonc signing off at 8888

Yep


But I bet you didn't factor those @#$%&! umpires!!

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Everyones still talking up Essendon* as a finals hope, with equal points and lower percentage.


What's up with that?!

We're still mathematically a chance I guess.

Roos getting up over the Lions just now. Good result for our chances.