The last 30 years has seen an enormous change in the number one aus rules competition in this country

Will the current structure of 9 teams based in metro Melbourne exist in 2036.I believe it wont and probably 3 maybe 4 teams will be reallocated, merged or wiped off altogether.

The new TV rights deal of 780 million is a temporary windfall for all clubs, but also ups the anty for the Melbourne clubs to find further revenue resources to survive on their own two feet.As the game continues to grow into the future it is going to cost more to run a club in the black and this cost will increase higher than inflation.Eventually even with AFL handouts Victorian clubs wont survive.

One process that will speed up this inevitable happening is the introduction of live AFL into NSW and Queensland where population areas are such that an AFL team could exist.The 4 untapped areas are Illawarra/ACT,Newcastle /HunterValley,the Gold Coast and a second team in Sydney.It seems that a minimum population base of 500000 is needed for a club to be viable.The problem for the areas except Sydney is that they dont have the requied stadium to house a decent crowd.Manuka and Carrarra could be developed.I totally new stadium would need to be built in Newcastle.

The Swans winning the flag will see an enormous positive change in the attitude to Aussie rules and with the possibility of prime time TV footy in these areas the game will continue to grow in culture to the point where an AFL side could exist in a viable state in these areas.

Which leads me to the future of the Melbourne clubs.Only the filth,the scum are safe from these inevitable changes.The AfL will want to reallocate the future financial windfalls to other areas rather than to existing Melbourne clubs who will continue to spiral into debt.The gulf between the interstate and Melbourne clubs is vast in terms of money,resources and to some degree success.The last two flags have been fought out by non-Victorian clubs.The last time we had an all Victorian final was in 2000.

Which clubs will go.It would of been unthinkable that the Blues could be one of these clubs a few years ago.The big 3 has become the big 2.We are on the right track now with the move to the phone dome and the G,but has the damage done through the Elliott years made the situation irreversible.Its a worry when 16000 people turn up to see Carlton play the Power and Freo at the G when you need 20000 to break even.Those days reminded me of going to Bulldogs games with my brother.No doubt there is the dropoff factor to consider with the team's awful form, and hopefully there will be some improvement in this area in the future years. However we must face the future with the prospect that the club we love may be in a different form through inevitable consequences.If you told someone in 1976 that the AFL final 30 years later would be won by a team from Sydney that used to be South Melbourne against one of two teams based in Perth you would be sent to the nearest mental institution with a sign hung around your neck not to be released.The one thing constant in life is change.If the Blues had to change in any way I would embrace it.

I have not included the Pussies in this post because they are a separate identity to the 9 Metrop clubs and will survive in their current state.

It's a fascinating question keogh.

I think our predicament from the last few years will have really opened the eyes of many Carlton supporters making many realise how vulnerable any club can be in the current climate if on field and off field mismanagement gets too out of hand.

I think it will be safe to say at least 2 clubs will be gone (or merged) from Melbourne in the next 30 years. Whether that means we have a 14 team compeition or a 16 team comp with teams re-located is a bit of a lottery I think.

There's no room for complacency if we want Carlton to remain a sole identity.

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I think we'll be still playing, but to the whim of our Ape overlords, who sit in the stands, crack whips and throw dung on untalented players.

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What, the apes are going to leave the forums?

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Thanks Kent!

Good post keogh.

I reckon it is really important that the club tries to actually directly contact as many carlton supporters as possible and make them feel involved with the club. There are supposed to be 700,000 odd Carlton supporters in Australia, the club should be trying to engage as many of them as possible as some 'insurance' for whatever the future may hold for the AFL and threats to Melbourne clubs.

Also, this thread reminds me a bit of this old one from TBV. http://www.theblueview.org/phpboard/vie ... hp?t=12681

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Between Parkville & Fitzroy

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