aboynamedsue wrote:
I reserve the right to change my prediction, but at this stage (ie. 10 days before the game and with a VFL match still to be played)...
Duigan Jamo Laidler
Yarran Hendo JR
Simmo Judd Scotland
Carrazzo T-Bird Robbo
Garlett Setanta Tex
Kreuzer Gibbs Murphy
Inter: AJ, Curnow, Hammer
Sub: Betts
In - Curnow, Hammer, JR, Setanta
Out - Armfield, Davies, Ellard, Warnock
4 changes is more than what's ideal. The players being dropped are unlucky but it might serve to keep them 'hungry' and I think we need to get another AFL game into Curnow, Hammer, JR & Setanta - they may be required for the finals.
Hammer to go forward and share the 2nd ruck duties with Setanta (I suspect the MC will seek to protect Hammer from centre bounces, due to his knee). Kreuzer as first ruck, rotating through the forward line and bench with both Setanta and Hammer.
Betts as sub. Hopefully this will fire him up before the finals and it might also sting Garlett into action.
Do we persist with Hendo in defence, or do we move him forward? If moved forward, does that mean T-Bird goes to the backline? Or does Davies hold his place instead of T-Bird (meaning at least one of Laidler, Duigan, JR or Davies would have to play taller)? This might give us more run and flexibility (I'm conscious of the fact that my team is a bit tall). Or does Gibbs go back and either Armfield or Ellard are picked ahead of T-Bird or Setanta? FWIW, my feeling is that Hendo will stay in defence for the remainder of the year (but that's not to say he will stay there in 2012 and beyond).
I thought seriously about bringing in Bower (and moving Hendo forward), but he's left his run too late this year I suspect. I also considered playing White at CHF instead of T-Bird. White played CHF for the Bullants last week and seems to have his supporters amongst the MC, but ultimately I thought 5 was too many changes and I'm not convinced he's an improvement on T-Bird.
Unfortunately, I don't think Waite will make it back this season. However, depending how he trains next week, the MC may take a punt and play him against the Saints (probably at the expense of T-Bird which means Setanta would have to play higher, or they might simply pick Waite ahead of Setanta).
Personally, I wouldn't be bringing in the likes of Lucas, Kerr, ROK, Tuohy or Watson. Hopefully they have a good VFL finals series which leads into a solid pre-season, but I can't see how they could come into the Carlton side now and make us a better finals team this year.
And Austin, Brock, Hoops & Twomey are decent back-ups if we get a sudden glut of injuries, but otherwise they shouldn't be considered IMO.
If Hampson is picked it wont be as second ruck. He'll need to be up and going and able to take any centre bounce as required. Otherwise we might as well stick with Warnock. I do agree that even the contest Hammer will provide up forward would be good for Betts and Jeffy. I would personally give him a go against the Saint. At worst Warnock will come in extra fresh for the first final.
No way will Thornton be dropped. I think Ratts loves his flexibilty this year. He would also add expirience in a final.
I think Waite will be given a crack whenever he is fit. If it's first week of the finals he'll still come straight in. He is one of our most important.
Sorry but I just don't rate Setanta's ability to produce anything in a final. I know he will try his guts out but that's not enough, you need to have an influence on the game if you're going to be a forward. If he get a go against the Saint he will need to put in a pretty good one.