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When does our Premiership window realistically open (greater than 25% chance of winning the flag)?
2011 33%  33%  [ 33 ]
2012 48%  48%  [ 48 ]
2013 18%  18%  [ 18 ]
2014 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
2015 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Other 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 101
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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:25 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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Josh Kaplan wrote:
The fact that people have the attitude that 2013 is the year we push for a flag is beyond me.
Any team in the top 4 has their premiership window open as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about you guys, but top 4 is the expectation for 2011. Anybody who says our window only opens in 2013 is going to be satisfied with finishing in the bottom reaches of the 8 again and a first up elimination final played somewhere in this vast country. Get a grip people. 2011 is when we aim for top 4, and that means 2011 is when we are a legitimate shot at #17.


Also remember posters in 2006-7-8 saying window opening in 3 years time after our rebuild, that would put 2011 well and truly in the picture. Now the same posters are telling us 2013+ ... hmmmmmm


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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:49 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 9:02 pm 
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Bruce Comben
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If Carlton were to play in the 2011 grand final it wo'nt be against the aints, they will be too mentally shot.


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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 9:04 pm 
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Bruce Comben
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If Carlton were to play in the 2011 grand final it wo'nt be against the aints, they will be too mentally shot.


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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:16 am 
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Rod Ashman
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Josh Kaplan wrote:
The fact that people have the attitude that 2013 is the year we push for a flag is beyond me.
Any team in the top 4 has their premiership window open as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about you guys, but top 4 is the expectation for 2011. Anybody who says our window only opens in 2013 is going to be satisfied with finishing in the bottom reaches of the 8 again and a first up elimination final played somewhere in this vast country. Get a grip people. 2011 is when we aim for top 4, and that means 2011 is when we are a legitimate shot at #17.


Not often I disagree with you Josh, but this is one of those times.

I specifically put into the heading for the poll a > 25% chance of winning a flag. To me, finishing top 4 should be our aim for next year, and I would be disappointed (but actually not surprised) if we didn't. However, while anyone in the top 4 has a chance, history shows that most of the time, you can pick a top 4 team and confidently say that they won't win the flag. The Dogs where that this year, Collingwood the previous year, St K in 2008, North 2007 etc.

We are a long way off a Premiership team in terms of our key position players. Jamison is good to very good, but needs to be better. We don't have a CHB. I think Henderson will be a star, but he is 2-3 years away, and Waite at the moment is our fill-in FF. He could become a star FF, as early as next year.

IMHO, we should be aiming for top 4 in 2011, and may or may not make it. We should definitely make it in 2012, but I still think we will be a year away (we could get lucky of course, as Hawthorn did). For me, 2013 represents the year when we will be a realistic chance to win the flag. Maybe that does mean that our window opens in 2012, but I don't think we are a realistic shot until 2013.

Having said that, we have one thing in our favour. More than likely, Geel, St K and the Dogs will go backwards. Collingwood should actually improve, likewise Freo. Hawthorn are an unknown. So we may be timing our run nicely, provided we can get in before GC (which may actually end up with the best team ever to play the game).

Oh, and while I'm on a late night waffle...

I thought we might have missed the boat when we were down, and didn't trade for more draft picks the way Hawthorn did. I have felt since then that our list may not become what it needs to become to win a flag. However, from what I have read, this draft has alleviated that. I suspect this draft may go down in history as the one that netted us a Premiership (hopefully more than 1) in the same way that the 2004 draft did for Hawthorn.

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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 6:38 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 7:02 am 
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Stephen Silvagni

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blueswoop wrote:
If Carlton were to play in the 2011 grand final it wo'nt be against the aints, they will be too mentally shot.



Therefore, if Carlton were to play the Aints in a GF we would be Premiers in 2011.

Look, I don't think we will be Premiers in 2011. I will put $100 or more on it though, but I'll hedge my bets and back them to play in a GF, Top 4 and Top 8, with a fair bit of dosh on the Top 8. That's betting.

Now, over to The Old Dak Navy Blues.
The ball is in their court; improvement is expected from everyone.

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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 8:43 am 
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Geoff Southby
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Josh Kaplan wrote:

Any team in the top 4 has their premiership window open as far as I'm concerned.


It depends who the other 3 teams are....

Doggies have been top 4 a couple of times haven't they? But as far as I was concerned they never had a Window because they just weren't good enough....

We have just recruited 2 talented KPB that our list was in dire need of.... and you expect our window to open in their debut year?

I've always maintained that our window will be when our high picks...like Gibbs, Murph, Kruez and what not will be fully mature and grown men. You have to remember we had no nucleus when we started having all these high picks. These high picks will become our nucleus from which to build upon and then our window will open....anything sooner and I'll be mighty surprised.

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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 12:28 pm 
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Garry Crane

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 9:45 pm
Posts: 273
Maybe its a bit semantic about what it means to have the window ajar or opened.

We've played finals for a couple of years with expectations of taking the next step so we hare obviously in the mix.

All I'm rapped about is the fact that I can honestly get to any game next season and feel mildly confident of coming away with a win.

Thats not to say that I expect we will win every match but at least know we have the 'nucleus' of what it takes to get the four points.

What a great feeling to have for the first time in a long time...

If that means the window is open, fantastic!!!

If we don't in the flag in 2011, then I'm not gonna get miserable about it. I just wanna enjoy the ride..


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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:43 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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going it in the first week of the finals may be a blessing...
No expectations when in reality only slight improvement is needed to give us a shot in 2011

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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 10:55 pm 
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Horrie Clover

Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:24 am
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The board was of the opinion that Fev would never play in a Premiership at Carlton.

That is why they had no trouble moving him on. They 100% believe that we are still rebuilding.

Looks like we have finally got a handle on list management. Now we need some luck.


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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 5:08 am 
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Geoff Southby
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I'm not sure the Scotlands, Houlihans, Josephs or the Jamisons will be part of that either.... But time will tell!

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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 9:34 am 
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Bruce Doull
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I can't really offer an opinion. I recall at the end of 2003 I, & others, saying our window would open in 2005 :oops: :lol:

Been a bit burnt ever since...

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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 2:18 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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TheBluesMuse wrote:
I'm not sure the Scotlands, Houlihans, Josephs or the Jamisons will be part of that either.... But time will tell!
You might be right Ayresy!


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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 2:29 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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CK95 wrote:
I can't really offer an opinion. I recall at the end of 2003 I, & others, saying our window would open in 2005 :oops: :lol:

Been a bit burnt ever since...



You were right didnt we win the Nab cup in 2005? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Premiership window
PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 8:17 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Yep, 2 flags under Pagan! :cool:

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