Josh Kaplan wrote:
The fact that people have the attitude that 2013 is the year we push for a flag is beyond me.
Any team in the top 4 has their premiership window open as far as I'm concerned. I dont know about you guys, but top 4 is the expectation for 2011. Anybody who says our window only opens in 2013 is going to be satisfied with finishing in the bottom reaches of the 8 again and a first up elimination final played somewhere in this vast country. Get a grip people. 2011 is when we aim for top 4, and that means 2011 is when we are a legitimate shot at #17.
Not often I disagree with you Josh, but this is one of those times.
I specifically put into the heading for the poll a > 25% chance of winning a flag. To me, finishing top 4 should be our aim for next year, and I would be disappointed (but actually not surprised) if we didn't. However, while anyone in the top 4 has a chance, history shows that most of the time, you can pick a top 4 team and confidently say that they won't win the flag. The Dogs where that this year, Collingwood the previous year, St K in 2008, North 2007 etc.
We are a long way off a Premiership team in terms of our key position players. Jamison is good to very good, but needs to be better. We don't have a CHB. I think Henderson will be a star, but he is 2-3 years away, and Waite at the moment is our fill-in FF. He could become a star FF, as early as next year.
IMHO, we should be aiming for top 4 in 2011, and may or may not make it. We should definitely make it in 2012, but I still think we will be a year away (we could get lucky of course, as Hawthorn did). For me, 2013 represents the year when we will be a realistic chance to win the flag. Maybe that does mean that our window opens in 2012, but I don't think we are a realistic shot until 2013.
Having said that, we have one thing in our favour. More than likely, Geel, St K and the Dogs will go backwards. Collingwood should actually improve, likewise Freo. Hawthorn are an unknown. So we may be timing our run nicely, provided we can get in before GC (which may actually end up with the best team ever to play the game).
Oh, and while I'm on a late night waffle...
I thought we might have missed the boat when we were down, and didn't trade for more draft picks the way Hawthorn did. I have felt since then that our list may not become what it needs to become to win a flag. However, from what I have read, this draft has alleviated that. I suspect this draft may go down in history as the one that netted us a Premiership (hopefully more than 1) in the same way that the 2004 draft did for Hawthorn.