As it has been well documented, we have a very interesting draw this year, playing many of the better sides within the first 9 weeks of the season. It has been raised quite a bit that we may have a slow start to the season, with some even predicting that we could be 1-8 after 9 rounds. Looking at our fixture and the possible outcomes, I'm not quite sure that I subscribe to the theory of having a bad year, or missing the eight. The first 9 weeks of the season may be tough, but if you take a look at the following rounds, it could be the time where we hit a purple patch, gaining some momentum at the right time of year on the latter side of the fixture before the finals start.

The four week period between rounds 10-13 are our make or break games. West Coast, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Fremantle are our opponents, all teams that we have recent wins against and are more than capable of beating. This is when our run on should really start, and the beauty of the fixture is that we have a grand opportunity to post a couple of wins before the mid season break to further build momentum for the upcoming weeks.

As we saw last season, once we start to build a bit of momentum, anything can happen. We ran the Saints into the ground, unfortunate not to come away with the points, beat the Bulldogs convincingly and defeated eventual premier Geelong. When opposition supporters look at our draw, they fail to see the momentum that can be gathered at certain parts of the fixture, and the impact that can have on our year. I see no reason why we can't come home with a wet sail given the draw we have from about round 8 (Port Adelaide) onwards.

The middle section of the second part of our draw ramps up a bit, giving us the Lions again and the Bulldogs, but then from Round 16 onwards, it seems that we could hit another purple patch with stringing a few more wins together. It's not all doom and gloom as many suggest. There could be some serious momentum gained from our draw.

Thoughts?

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Premierships: 1869, 1871, 1873, 1874, 1875, 1877, 1887, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1914, 1915, 1938, 1945, 1947, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1987, 1995.

"GIBBS."

And any momentum that we might be able to build up could be non-existent after we are 1-7 after the first 8 weeks and our heads start to drop. All much of a muchness really.

It's pretty hard to recover from a bad start. History will tell you that the final 8 doesn't change too much after the first 7 rounds of the season.

I've never been one to predict too far ahead, too many variables that can occur throughout a season.

IMO it's fair to say that most clubs approach the season in 4 game blocks and we're probably no different. Let's focus on the first month and go from there.

I tend to agree that feasibly we could come home strong however there's no denying on paper that the first half draw is tough, real tough. We wouldn't want to leave ourselves too much work to do otherwise our season could be over (in terms of finals) a lot sooner than we would hope.

As such, early wins are crucial. Stating the bleeding obvious I know but our second month is tough so there is even more importance on early wins imho. We should be aiming for 3-1 or at worst 2-2 start.

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We are on our way back...

Teams that make the finals 90% of the time score at least 3 wins out of 5 in their first five games.

We will need to aim for 3 out of first five to have a platform for possible finals.

True, but history will also tell you that up until recently all teams played each other once before they play a team again.

We need to aim for a 2 and 2 start.
Let's start with that.

Let's beat Richmond

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WADA medical director Dr Alan Vernec describes Essendon* FC drug case as biggest scandal in team sport the world of sport has seen. #WC2WB

#GUILTY

Even if we're 1-7 after the first 8 weeks, a run of 6 or 7 wins in a row (which we 're more then capable of doing) like we did this year will bring us back in the finals race....

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James Hird and Essendon* FC - #FOREVERDRUGCHEATS

True, but I think the point B. Russell was making is that if we (or any other team for that matter) were 1-7, our confidence would be pretty shot and a string of 6 or 7 wins on the trot would be pretty unlikely regardless of the opposition.

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STURDYISM!!

If we could be 3-1, with an interstate win, it would really set us up for a big season.

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"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent." Qui-Gon Jinn 15-05-2005

"there’s more chance of me becoming the full forward for the [Western Bulldogs] than there is of any change in the Labor Party." Julia Gillard 18-05-2010

What's with all the negativity around our first 5 games?

I am expecting to be 5-0 after round 5.

He ha a point. Very lopsided draw for us this year, on paper anyhow.

R8 might be a good time to put some money on Blues making the 8

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It's a small world, but I wouldn't want to paint it

I think the draw we have received this year will work against us this year, however in furture years (when GC & GWS) it will set us up quite well.

The draw for the first 9 rounds is a lot different than is previous years.

From round one we have played on these days

Thur - Thur (Brisbane) - Sat - Sat(Adelaide) - Mon - Sun - Mon - Sun (Adelaide) - Sun

As you can see our draw is all over the place, it must be difficult for our players to get into a regular routine. Training wouldn't be regular, recovery wouldn't be regular. I think this is having a bit of an impact on us early in the year, but we need to get used to it.

We still have another Thursday game coming up.

We only have 2 interstate trips left for the remainder of the year. Eagles in Round 17, Dockers in round 22.

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when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

Feelgood Hit of the Winter - GHRP-2, GHRP-6, CJC-1295, AOD-9604, Humanofort and Hexarelin

Sometimes it is not who you play but when you play them which can make a draw quite tough.
So far we have played Brisbane and Hawthorn at the wrong time of the season.

Glad to have been one of the people who didn't write us off before the year began.

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Premierships: 1869, 1871, 1873, 1874, 1875, 1877, 1887, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1914, 1915, 1938, 1945, 1947, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1987, 1995.

"GIBBS."

The filth (as always) have a far better draw than anyone else

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Cheats never prosper (except in the AFL)

Yeah but they'll be howling with indignity over having to travel up to Brisbane this round and play on the GABBA surface.

Long breaks between games.

Played:

Freo on 19 June
Lions on 1 July
Dogs on 11 July

That means we have played one game before today in 21 days.

We should have been fresh for a run at the end of the year, but the break seems to have put us further out of form

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when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

Feelgood Hit of the Winter - GHRP-2, GHRP-6, CJC-1295, AOD-9604, Humanofort and Hexarelin