Expectations for 2010

fraser murphy · **Joined:** Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:04 pm **Posts:** 1685

aramari wrote:

Blueman

At least you've made a falsifiable prediction now.

What is it about you that leads you to think that your deductions and vague predictions attain credibility when stated in soothsayer syntax?

Why not just be straight up and say:

"I reckon we'll struggle to make the eight next year, but we'll be back in the finals in 2011. I say we'll miss because Fevola has left, an eventuality I didn't forsee, because who could predict Fev's Brownlow performance? "

Didn't you say we'll surprise and win a flag well ahead of schedule? Was that at the end of 07 or 08?

Now you say we'll make finals in 2011 (I think). No suggestion of a flag in 2011. So maybe we'll win one in 2012. is that ahead of schedule? Or do you admit that this is all a silly attention-seeking game?

I'm confused aramari.

Why exactly does Blueman have to qualify his predictions with an 'I reckon', yet you ask this of no other poster?

Why does Blueman have to construct his opinion with deductive reasoning when clearly he is using his intuitive faculties?

And just how do you judge the credibility of a prediction? Is there even a need to?

dane · **Joined:** Tue Mar 08, 2005 10:14 am **Posts:** 22357

Steveojk1 wrote:

WIth Fevola gone is opens up alot of options in our forward line for waite,Kruz, henderson (give him a year or so his still only 19) he was pick 8 in 2007 same yr Kruz wen no.1 and maybe even O'haplin he played a couple of good games those are our possible talls nxt yr n we should have yarrn n garlett should play alot more footy nxt yr with eddie but if eddies not careful he could end up in da VFL in 2009 he started well with 30 goals after 12 games then he droped off a bit but he should b alrite should get fitter coz i love it wen he gets a run on da ball but i will miss fevola one of carlton best forwards but stuffed up to many times he had plenty of warnings but we will benefit from henderson n we'll see what we do wit pick 12 hopefully tall key defender i reckon we need. Our midfield is perfect i reckon juddy,murphy,gibbs,simpson( who is underated),mclean, and if A. Joseph one of the best taggers in the AFL in his 1st season if he can hurt teams more if he got the ball more n use it but a great shut down player if warnock lives up to expections hammer will b a good bak up ruckman n they all most prob rotate though the foward line with Kruz goin in sometimes

I'd suggest looking for existing threads on the same topic, proper words and punctuation.

samboymolloy · **Joined:** Mon Sep 14, 2009 11:35 am **Posts:** 406

dane wrote:

I'd suggest looking for existing threads on the same topic, proper words and punctuation

OUCH!

graemep · **Joined:** Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:39 pm **Posts:** 55

dane wrote:

I'd suggest looking for existing threads on the same topic, proper words and punctuation

Ok to suggest using existing threads but ... literary elitism? I Dunno bout that ... cood privent some having there sai on torkin carlton

bax · **Posted:** Sun Oct 11, 2009 5:15 pm

Steveojk1 wrote:

WIth Fevola gone is opens up alot of options in our forward line for waite,Kruz, henderson (give him a year or so his still only 19) he was pick 8 in 2007 same yr Kruz wen no.1 and maybe even O'haplin he played a couple of good games those are our possible talls nxt yr n we should have yarrn n garlett should play alot more footy nxt yr with eddie but if eddies not careful he could end up in da VFL in 2009 he started well with 30 goals after 12 games then he droped off a bit but he should b alrite should get fitter coz i love it wen he gets a run on da ball but i will miss fevola one of carlton best forwards but stuffed up to many times he had plenty of warnings but we will benefit from henderson n we'll see what we do wit pick 12 hopefully tall key defender i reckon we need. Our midfield is perfect i reckon juddy,murphy,gibbs,simpson( who is underated),mclean, and if A. Joseph one of the best taggers in the AFL in his 1st season if he can hurt teams more if he got the ball more n use it but a great shut down player if warnock lives up to expections hammer will b a good bak up ruckman n they all most prob rotate though the foward line with Kruz goin in sometimes

Ever heard of full stops. Read your post before you send it :thumbsup:

aramari · **Posted:** Sun Oct 11, 2009 5:53 pm

Synbad wrote:

im expecting we dont have a predictable forward line next year... if were kicking it to fev were going backwards...

Personally... i beieve ......and im serious.

if we continue to believe were not "old enough" ..to make some real inroads... we wont make any inroads.. and we will continue to make excuse after excuse.

if we work on structures and set ups and ball movement.. i cant see why we wouldnt be a top 4 team.

for every year we dont make those vital steps forward in how we play.. others will begin catching up and it wont be so much about making up ground on the teams ahead of us...but about fending teams hungry and organised coming over the top of us from behind.....

Yep, "it's later than you think". Did Jeans say that?

aramari · **Posted:** Sun Oct 11, 2009 6:16 pm

fraser murphy wrote:

aramari wrote:

Blueman

At least you've made a falsifiable prediction now.

What is it about you that leads you to think that your deductions and vague predictions attain credibility when stated in soothsayer syntax?

Why not just be straight up and say:

"I reckon we'll struggle to make the eight next year, but we'll be back in the finals in 2011. I say we'll miss because Fevola has left, an eventuality I didn't forsee, because who could predict Fev's Brownlow performance? "

Didn't you say we'll surprise and win a flag well ahead of schedule? Was that at the end of 07 or 08?

Now you say we'll make finals in 2011 (I think). No suggestion of a flag in 2011. So maybe we'll win one in 2012. is that ahead of schedule? Or do you admit that this is all a silly attention-seeking game?

I'm confused aramari.

Why exactly does Blueman have to qualify his predictions with an 'I reckon', yet you ask this of no other poster?

Say "reckon" or whatever you like - don't come to us like you're Moses with a direct line from the universe or Nostradamus. It insults the intelligence.

Why does Blueman have to construct his opinion with deductive reasoning when clearly he is using his intuitive faculties?

We all use both, don't we? Again, nobody else, (not even Synbad!) tries to tell us that something WILL come to pass because they can tell the future or read sheep's entrails. The predictions we make are based on what we perceive IN REALITY and how we interpret that perception. Most people aren't under the misapprehension that what they perceive in dreams or acid trips to the future in a De Lorean is actually real and worthy of being pronounced in definitive, Charlton Hestonesque decrees.

And just how do you judge the credibility of a prediction? Is there even a need to?

The nature of the source of a prediction is a guide to credibility. A source that uses reasoning may be credible, because reasoning is shown to have validity when used properly, (as does "intuition"). One that uses mumbo-jumbo cannot be given credence, unless and until they've proven the validity of their method.

Of course predictions in complex systems by their nature are fallible, but there is an understanding that they will be made and if there is an argument to support it, a dialogue can occur, because the dialogue is between parties that understand "the rules of engagement".

There is no such understanding in modern society for a dialogue with someone that operates outside those "rules". You can't argue the point with a soothsayer, can you? All you can do if you want to disagree, is to criticise their mode of "engagement".

dane · **Joined:** Tue Mar 08, 2005 10:14 am **Posts:** 22357

graemep wrote:

dane wrote:

I'd suggest looking for existing threads on the same topic, proper words and punctuation

Ok to suggest using existing threads but ... literary elitism? I Dunno bout that ... cood privent some having there sai on torkin carlton

camel · **Posted:** Sun Oct 11, 2009 6:32 pm

Steveojk1 wrote:

WIth Fevola gone is opens up alot of options in our forward line for waite,Kruz, henderson (give him a year or so his still only 19) he was pick 8 in 2007 same yr Kruz wen no.1 and maybe even O'haplin he played a couple of good games those are our possible talls nxt yr n we should have yarrn n garlett should play alot more footy nxt yr with eddie but if eddies not careful he could end up in da VFL in 2009 he started well with 30 goals after 12 games then he droped off a bit but he should b alrite should get fitter coz i love it wen he gets a run on da ball but i will miss fevola one of carlton best forwards but stuffed up to many times he had plenty of warnings but we will benefit from henderson n we'll see what we do wit pick 12 hopefully tall key defender i reckon we need. Our midfield is perfect i reckon juddy,murphy,gibbs,simpson( who is underated),mclean, and if A. Joseph one of the best taggers in the AFL in his 1st season if he can hurt teams more if he got the ball more n use it but a great shut down player if warnock lives up to expections hammer will b a good bak up ruckman n they all most prob rotate though the foward line with Kruz goin in sometimes

Merged.

fraser murphy · **Joined:** Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:04 pm **Posts:** 1685

aramari wrote:

fraser murphy wrote:

aramari wrote:

Blueman

At least you've made a falsifiable prediction now.

What is it about you that leads you to think that your deductions and vague predictions attain credibility when stated in soothsayer syntax?

Why not just be straight up and say:

"I reckon we'll struggle to make the eight next year, but we'll be back in the finals in 2011. I say we'll miss because Fevola has left, an eventuality I didn't forsee, because who could predict Fev's Brownlow performance? "

Didn't you say we'll surprise and win a flag well ahead of schedule? Was that at the end of 07 or 08?

Now you say we'll make finals in 2011 (I think). No suggestion of a flag in 2011. So maybe we'll win one in 2012. is that ahead of schedule? Or do you admit that this is all a silly attention-seeking game?

I'm confused aramari.

Why exactly does Blueman have to qualify his predictions with an 'I reckon', yet you ask this of no other poster?

Say "reckon" or whatever you like - don't come to us like you're Moses with a direct line from the universe or Nostradamus. It insults the intelligence.

Why does Blueman have to construct his opinion with deductive reasoning when clearly he is using his intuitive faculties?

We all use both, don't we? Again, nobody else, (not even Synbad!) tries to tell us that something WILL come to pass because they can tell the future or read sheep's entrails. The predictions we make are based on what we perceive IN REALITY and how we interpret that perception. Most people aren't under the misapprehension that what they perceive in dreams or acid trips to the future in a De Lorean is actually real and worthy of being pronounced in definitive, Charlton Hestonesque decrees.

And just how do you judge the credibility of a prediction? Is there even a need to?

The nature of the source of a prediction is a guide to credibility. A source that uses reasoning may be credible, because reasoning is shown to have validity when used properly, (as does "intuition"). One that uses mumbo-jumbo cannot be given credence, unless and until they've proven the validity of their method.

Of course predictions in complex systems by their nature are fallible, but there is an understanding that they will be made and if there is an argument to support it, a dialogue can occur, because the dialogue is between parties that understand "the rules of engagement".

There is no such understanding in modern society for a dialogue with someone that operates outside those "rules". You can't argue the point with a soothsayer, can you? All you can do if you want to disagree, is to criticise their mode of "engagement".

In all honesty the only difference I can see between someone saying 'I had a dream, Carlton will win the flag in 2012' and 'I reckon we will win the flag in 2012' is that the former sounds vaguely interesting.

I understand the point you are making in regards to having evidence or logic to support a contention. If one is interested in having an intelligent debate they are indeed necessary to show how one contention is better than another. However, not having verifiable evidence does not render conversation mute, it merely makes having an argument unsatisfactory.

For instance we could have a conversation about what we perceive in dreams and when we're tripping and whether those perceptions are real. Be a bit harder to have an argument about it beyond the 'My perception's bigger than you're perception'.

In any case I reckon 7th.

blueman · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 6:28 pm **Posts:** 2220

I expect that Carlton will now take a backward step or two in 2010 and then go forward in 2011.

But the backward steps are those of a developing team with obvious potential.

Coaching strategies (or a lack of strategies) will have a lot to do with the backsliding.

There will be a lot of more discussion that relates to coaching than there has been in 2009 and a great deal of new frustration about this issue.

There will be new problems with accuracy in the forward 50 and too many matches will be lost by small margins. This isnt as much a prediction as a statement of the new Post Fevola reality.

Remember threading the eye of a needle from the boundary line for a goal and kicking goals while laying on the ground on the back - well we just wont have those kind of goals as regularly as we did in the past - until new strategies are developed and then practiced to the point where they succeed... you will soon see how spoiled we were in the forward line.

Some people here are assuming that everything will fall into place and the fact that we have a talented list means that we will be a 'shoe in' to make the 8 - but it wont be that easy.

Yes, there will be just as many forward 50 entries - but the loss of Fevola, his strength and his accuracy will mean that for a period of time we will be noticably less efficient and effective inside 50 than we were in the past. This will translate into more losses.

It will be a period of adjustment, but as David Parkin said - You get a kick up the bum 10 times before you get a lick of the ice cream.

However the fact is that plenty of first round picks mean that we have plenty of talent.

Clearly, it is all about developing that talent and getting the most out it Development is something that can take time..

Can Eater · **Posted:** Sun Oct 11, 2009 7:54 pm

10 wins next year will be a bonus.

We will realise throughout the year how critical the loss of Fev is. I don't subscribe to this theory that we kick it to him too often because if you use that argument then Hawthorn should get rid of Franklin.

The reason we went to Fev so often is due to 2 main points:

1) The fact that he is a star
2) The fact we have failed to develop any other effective forward options.

Point 2 scares the hell our of me because unless Henderson, and whoever we pick up with pick 12, become B grade key position players at a minimum, and Yarran delivers on his promise then we will struggle to make any serious impact over the next 3-5 years.

By then Juddy will be approaching 30.

blueman · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 6:28 pm **Posts:** 2220

Developing a new forward line and the strategies that are needed to kick our goals and win matches will take time.

It will happen - but nowhere near as quickly as people seem to expect.

Because it wont be anywhere near as easy to replace Fev as some are thinking.

Brett Ratten said that Fevola was the best player at Carlton in 25 years.

Thats a pretty big call from the coach.

Henderson and whoever pick 12 will fullfill their potential and we will have a finals team by 2011 - but time and patience is required.

verbs · **Posted:** Wed Oct 14, 2009 1:20 am

Having watched three of our better performances for 2009 tonight, gotta say, I have no expectations for 2010. Impossible to tell what we're going to do.

I'd hope McLean will substitute for Stevens. Fevola will be a big loss.

Boom or bust in 2010.

dannyboy · **Posted:** Wed Oct 14, 2009 7:31 am

McLean for Brownlow

Henderson for Coleman

Blues for Flag!

Easy peesy

tap in 79 · **Joined:** Fri Mar 04, 2005 10:58 am **Posts:** 2134

It will be a huge shame for the game - and even for many neutral supporters - if Judd doesn't play in a premiership team in the coming years.

It seems like a lot of people on this site are putting their faith in Henderson on the forward line- a kid that has played less than 20 games.... even Fev was pretty average at around the 20 game mark.

I hope that the Blues make the eight, but wouldn't be surprised if Carlton misses the eight altogether.

Maybe we can get some of our A grade midfielders to rotate through the forward line (less time in midfield/ and then more time in forward line and we can snag a few goals from Judd, Murphy, Simpson and Gibbs). 15-20 goals from each player would be needed.

Blue Sombrero · **Posted:** Thu Oct 15, 2009 6:37 am

Have faith, people.
One swallow a summer maketh not.
Fev will be a huge loss but I am tipping we can cover his goals with one or more of:
Waite
Cloke
Kreuzer
Henderson
Setanta
our mids.

Judd was a goalkicking mid at WCE and will return to that role.

How many times did we see Setanta/Fisher/Wiggins/Houlihan/Garlett in position only to be ignored with a kick to Fev? The raw stats showed how many times we went to him and how few times we went to others.
Fev kicked his huge bags of seven or eight occasionally but also went missing a lot. We would have won more games over the years if he had kicked (say) four a week instead of eight one week and one the next. We have won lots of flags without winning the galkicking.
If we get one player to kick 50+, plus seven or eight players to kick five more goals each next year (one extra each every month), the deficit is recovered. We have to have a plan on how to go about it. That's what the coaches are doing, even as we post.

We have lost great players before and they have been replaced by other great players and great teams.

We WILL finish in the eight, maybe in the top six. I'm going to buy yet another year's membership on the strength of it.

brazilbeliever · **Joined:** Sat Mar 28, 2009 6:40 am **Posts:** 448

Not sure why people are so pesimistic ... Fev is a huge loss ... no doubting that ... BUT I just cannot shake the feeling we will be a better team without him.

Are we premier material at the moment :?:

... No .... are we top 8 :?:

... definately.

Just look at who is below us!

Personally i think it will be 2-3 years before we give it a good shake ... but we will make the finals for the next 8 years! With a minimum of three flags in that time.

Optimistic ... maybe ... but I just cannot shake the feeling ...

Go Blueboyz!

2ndeffort · **Posted:** Thu Oct 15, 2009 10:14 am

Under the

blue in the face · **Joined:** Sun Jun 28, 2009 8:53 pm **Posts:** 284

brazilbeliever wrote:

Not sure why people are so pesimistic ... Fev is a huge loss ... no doubting that ... BUT I just cannot shake the feeling we will be a better team without him.

Are we premier material at the moment :?:

... No .... are we top 8 :?:

... definately.

Just look at who is below us!

Personally i think it will be 2-3 years before we give it a good shake ... but we will make the finals for the next 8 years! With a minimum of three flags in that time.

Optimistic ... maybe ... but I just cannot shake the feeling ...

Go Blueboyz!

Expectations for 2010

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