We are better than last year. I am happy we are in the 8 - there is so much upside to our team.

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Delulio is a member of TISM

Yeah but is our coach going to bring out the upside?

We have lacked the spirit of the big comebacks that we had last year, so from that perspective I think we have been average this year.

Some X factor and killer instinct missing since the first Richmond game.

We are a very lazy team, if it wasnt for Judd we would not be where we are.

The players want to play finals, get upset when they lose, yet they are not prepared to play 4 hard quarters.

Melvey would just climb out!
It needs a roof

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I see you watching me watching you.

I am sorry to bring arithmetic into the proces but you opened the dooe when you used the word " average". This term actually has a spefic meaning and it is not what you feel after a good night out putting more into your gut han your liver can handle.

To be an average team at the point in time when one team has won 15 games, one 13 etc , is actually a score of total points for wins/draws (480) divided by teams playing (16) = 30 so by this measure Carlton at 8 wins (32) and no draws is "above average" but not by a a large amount.

To be in the "8" means you have a better win/loss ratio than the other 8 teams not in the "8" so by definition the "average" result or mean (meaning middle point will be between the 8th and 9th teams. I do not know anyone who wants to be 9th (and this would include Tigers fans in a good year).

Rather than make this Statistics 101, I believe we have a better than average position at 7/16 teams and agree that but for a few close losses could be higher up the ladder.

The key at this point on 13th July is how many morre of the next 7 games can Carlton win?

If Carlton wins the games of teams below its ladder position it will be 4 wins and if it looses against the teams above it on the ladder it will be 3 losses. This would result in 12/22 wins for the Home and Away rounds - and this is enough wins to play in the Final series for 2009. As I see it the key game is against Port at AAMI, as defeating Sydney who now are not going to play in September, do not have a stable forward line is a whole lot easier in 2009 than it has been in the past three years, similarly defeating Noth Melbourne is a similar situation as is the Melboure game -so there are the 3 probable wins. Port at home is the toss up game. Collingwood, Geelong and Adelaide (although in Melbourne) are the games that are less easy to pencil in as wins at this stage so I have assumed three losses.

Would 12 wins be close to the objectives of the coaches and players when the year started?

I would say Yes.

If you want to play with Finals games options see the discussion on the Carlton BF site. Just a little optimism can achieve wonders, look no further than Hawthorn in 2008. I would be more than pleasantly surprised if we are playing in late September.

So are we an average team NO.
Is some of the football that Carlton delivers in games average (like my liver on the week-end) YES.

Can we improve as a team = YES just getting the best 22 on the field at any one time will help this happen but all teams do make this statement.

but is it organic upside?

The funny thing is in Melvey's efforts to be 'unbiased' and 'clinical' he's actually gone the other way and sees negativity way too easily.

I'll admit Essendon* have beaten us twice this season and belted us once.

But I'll also admit that they are ahead of us when they stop playing a team that averages a year's more experience and age and they stop relying on three 30 year olds at either end of the ground.

So far they've beaten

Freo (in melbourne)
Collingwood (very lucky win on ANZAC day)
Hawthorn
Richmond
Melbourne (enough said)
Sydney and
Us (twice)

They also lost to North, Port, Brisbane at the Gabba (funny that a team ahead of us should lose that) and got smashed by Geelong and Collingwood.

To me, if you stop reading all the press crap about how silly "they know we're coming" is and start looking at the facts the teams arent too far apart (unless of course you consider our young players upside)

After reading most of his posts for the last 6 months I reckon Melvey rocks!

It never surprises me how half empty the glass can be. I suspect he is a true absolute die hard blues supporter who has been wounded so badly by the last 7 years of hell that we have been through that he has succumbed to the dark side.

But Melvey let me say this ... I honestly believe that come 2011 the glass will be brimming up the top and you will lose the rain clouds and see sun again. I am very much looking forward to the day that we win the 17th ... no point complaining about winning the premiership one would think.

But seriously, yes we do have problems, but all young teams do. Is Ratts the man to take us to the 17th? I am still undecided but think he deserves another year to find out not because if we could get someone better I would not jump at the chance but because we are going to make the 8 and its just not going to happen so why winge and moan ... I think there is enough evidence there historically that says he could do it as well ... look at Geelong, Saints and HAwthorne ... all thier coached were vilified b4 coming good . Just like everyone in the team he is learning and I believe he is learning from his mistakes.

Are we ordinary at the moment? Hard to say as well ... Did we just have one of those weeks against the scum, did Freo have a blinding couple of 10 minute periods and we just dominated the rest of the game but failed in our scoring to put them away? Did the cr@p conditions on Saturday against the Tigs and a bit of travel fatigue mean we looked ordinary on the weekend?

To be honest cannot see this post being truly reflective of where we are until after the swans game.

Its a game we should win comfortably if we are genuine 8 material and that we have really progressed this year.

If we lose then I will open up a Melvey fan club with me as number 1 ticket holder and president.

We look like an average team because we have too many Average players playing in the 22.They are made up of two groups of players: Hacks who should never play AFL football and the Young ones who are continuing to develop but still make simple errors and continue to bring the team down....


By Finals time, Bring back Scotland, Stevens, Walker and Warnock and you will have more than average team.....

Alan Richardson

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WADA medical director Dr Alan Vernec describes Essendon* FC drug case as biggest scandal in team sport the world of sport has seen. #WC2WB

#GUILTY

Someone made a good post about the Dons, Crows, Lions etc being ahead of us.

There's a lot of competition.

I think many of us, and in the media, and other supporters, think just bec we had 3 no.1 picks, and Judd, we will win a Premiership.

It's not that easy.

Many people think our strength is our midfield and our weakness is KPP.

Right now though, I actually think it is the other way around.

Next year we could have Warnock, Hampson, Jacobs in ruck. And Fevola, Kreuzer, Setanta, and maybe Waite fwd.

I actually think we don't bat deep enough in midfield, and with Scotto and Stevo under performing, there are concerns.

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It's a small world, but I wouldn't want to paint it

It's all Houla's fault we're shit - I knew it!!

Seriously through - we're being exposed for having very shallow depth. IMO we can't afford to leave Scotto out, and be without Aussie, Setanta, Carrazzo and even a fit Stevens for that matter.

These guys aren't superstars, but they're better than the alternatives. This is what makes Judd such an incredible player. He takes an average team and makes it a good one, and an bad team and makes it average.

If Warnock comes on as we hope and we then get AW back to 80% fitness for the last few H&As we'll be a better side in the first week of finals (provided we make it).

Then it's just a matter of getting the coach to coach properly .

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end of message

Referred to in the wrestling industry as "Hell in a Cell".... or there is always the "Elimination Chamber"?

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37°47'1.59"S - 144°57'43.30"E - Home

There is no doubt we are not playing at our peak right now. I agree that that our form over the recent weeks in only average. Stating that, I think we are on track for 12 wins and a finals appearance. If we acheive this, we are showing improvement and are on track to achieve where I thought we would be at the start tof the year.

I think so far this year, we have met most expectations, but not exceeded them.

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Have I run too far to get home?

Very well put.

For every StKilda there is an Adelaide or Essendon* game....

I hope that our MC and all those who matter aren't going around the club giving each other high 5's cos we had the Saints within 9 Pts...

Obvious dissapointment aside.....I actually tipped that we'd sneak into the 8 which is what is hopefully going to happen...so maybe I should just put our insipid Adelaide/Freo/Essendon* games behind me and be thankful

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The problem will be made. for the solution to be sold, to your face before your eyes, tolerance is now the new danger

Yes, our form over the last couple of weeks is nothing but average, but we still won those matches while playing that way. In previous years, average meant "only" losing by 4-6 goals.

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And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

That's very true too KK.....

I think alot just got sucked in to believing our own hype.....and now can't hack it that we are only just above average.....and playing some really crappy fooball in patches.

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The problem will be made. for the solution to be sold, to your face before your eyes, tolerance is now the new danger

Some people are forgetting where we have come from and despite our relatively uninspiring recent performances we are still up there with a good chance of playing finals. So all in all we are progressing in line with expectations. Yes we are struggling for depth and we do have injuries, just like every other club, but we are still sitting 7th with a lot of scope for improvement through development of young players (Austin, Garlett, Hampson) and through some key personnel returning from injury that should allow us to field a more versatile setup (Walker, Warnock if he comes good).

On a side note... regarding so many ‘ordinary’ players in our team ... I can see Scotland coming back into the side sooner than Stevens and this isn't necessarily a bad thing. At the end of the day, our 'senior' players need to realise that they need to either shape up or ship out... and if there are young players knocking on the door and doing the right things then they do deserve to get a go. It's easy to bag guys like Bentley, Anderson etc... but there isn't much point giving them just one game and dropping them... if that were the case we never would have persisted with guys like Grigg, Austin, Hampson.... even Gibbs had some very quiet games during first year.

right on there! it seems like everybody forgets where we have been the last 7 years and expect juddy/fev/murph/gibblet and kreuze to propel us into a g/f!
We need time to grow and expand as a playing group and start playing for each other and that WILL take time!
Also have to remember how young we are and how long geelong took to get up and going! Look at the cats now!
i think we are just above average with a few bad quarters here and there and not taking our chances inside 50 when games were in the balance and we had momentum. ess 4pts hawks 4pts stk 9pts freo 7 pts and to a lesser extent sydney by 17.
Growth and belief within the playing group will convert those losses to wins in the future.
So all in all only just above average but moving forward!

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When you're a Jet you're a Jet all the way!