One thing that has been overlooked when assessing the team/ratten's performances this year has been the availability of players for selection.

Whilst dreamteam ratings arent the best guide to a player's performance, they can provide a useful indication of impact.

In 2008 our top 11 dreamteam players (by average score) were murphy, carazzo, stevens, sotland, gibbs, judd, fevola, simpson, walker, waite and cloke

Together, the top 11 played 220 out of a possible 242 games (ie 90.9% games played). Of the 22 games lost to injury/suspension/form, walker accounted for 15 of those games. Excluding walker, our remaining top 10 (DT) players managed 213 out of a possible 220 games (ie 96.8% games played)

In 2009, our top 10 DT players are gibbs, murphy, judd, waite, simpson, fevola, scotland, stevens, thornton and carazzo

Thus far, our top 10 have managed 124 out of a possible 150 games (ie 82.6% games played). 2/3's of the way through the season, we have already 'lost' 26 games from our top 10 due to injury/suspension/form.

If we included the absence of walker (who you would expect to have been in our top 11), then the figure drops down to 124 out of a possible 165 games (ie 75.2% games played)

To summarise, in terms of games missed by our top group of 'impact' players
Excluding walker - Fpr 2008 just 3.2% of games were missed by our topliners whereas for 2009 our topliners have missed 17.4% of games (14.2% difference)
Including walker - For 2008, 9.1% of games were missed by our topliners. In contrast, 24.8% of possible games have been missed (15.7% difference)

At round 15 in 2008 we had a % of 93.8 and were 10th on the ladder. We had an average winning margin of 24.9 points and an average losing margin on 34 points

This year, despite the absence of 'key' players, our % is 108.8 (15% improvement) and are sitting 7th on the ladder. Our average winning margin has improved to 34.8 points (ie 2 goal improvement) and our average losing margin is down to 22 points (again a 2 goal improvement)

Despite managing just 1 extra win when compared to the equivalent period last season, I'd suggest that we have improved significantly from 2008 to 2009.

And for those that scoff at a 2 goal improvement, that all we need to entrench ourselves into the top 4 next season. Using this seasons results as a guide, with another 2 goal improvement we would have beaten Essendon* (rd 3), hawthorn (rd 6), fremantle (rd 7), st kilda (rd 12).

Rather than being 8 ad 7 with a % of 108.8%, we would currently be 12 and 3 and have a % of 121.5% (ie 3rd)

Interesting Post. And some very good points

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#23: Lachlan Henderson

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"I had to eat"

each team has players out or playing with niggles this time of the year...

unless we want all of our players in and everybody else to have polayers out knees etc...

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Due to recent budget cuts and the rising cost of electricity, gas, and oil....... the Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Hence I stated...

"Whilst dreamteam ratings arent the best guide to a player's performance, they can provide a useful indication of impact."

DT and SC arent everything but they provide a statistical indication of impact.

For a less statistical comparison of form/injury/suspension between the 08 and 09 seasons we can use the 2008 B&F top 10 list (judd, murphy, fevola, carazzo, gibbs, stevens, waite, simpson, scotland, thornton)

In 2008, the above players missed just 7 games missed (played 213/220 games ie 96.8%). In 2009, just 2/3 through the season these same players have missed alread missed 26 games (have played 124/150 games, ie 82.6%)

Somewhat interesting that these numbers/%s are identical to those garnered from the DT - perhaps our MC uses DT stats to judge the B&F?

goes without saying - and generally speaking teams that have significant injuries start to lose matches that they would otherwise be expected to win - north/freo have had their seasons ruined by injuries to key players. The cats with a mounting list just got caned by the lions etc

We've had fairly significant injuries throughout the season- Of the top 22+thereabouts (ie top 22 when injured) we have lost the following players for varying reasons
warnock, walker - 15 games each
jacobs - 11 games
carazzo, grigg, johnson - 8 games each
wiggins - 7 games
waite - 6 games
bower/jamison - 2 games each

Add to those
scotland - 6 games for various reasons
stevens - 4 games for various reasons
fisher - injured preseason
fev - injured preseason

Compare that to 08 where the list (by end of season) would have read
houlihan - 17 games
walker - 15 games
bentick/wiggins - 8 games each
jamison - 6 games
betts - 4 games
thornton - 3 games
cloke, grigg - 2 games each
waite, scotland, fisher, carazzo, judd - 1 game each

So given the respective lists (with 2009 being significantly more interrupted and our performances to date, one would have to say that we HAVE improved a fair bit.

Stats can be deceptive...looking at the above for instance you could take 5 players out of that whole group and generally say they are players whose absence has an impact (I'll name them later if you like but I truly believe you know who they are) whilst the rest fall into the following groups: Suspended (and we won when he was out anyway), dropped, duds, and extreme duds...

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"Truth, for the tyrants, is the most terrible and cruel of all bindings; it is like an incandescent iron falling across their chests. And it is even more agonizing than hot iron, for that only burns the flesh, while truth burns its way into the soul"     — Lauro Aguirre

stats also dont reveal the full picture ie looking at games missed through injury doesnt take into account games played by those coming back from injury and who are lacking either fitness, confidence or 'touch' - examples here would be Fev and scotland early in the season, jamison post shoulder injury grigg when he came back.

In terms of players missing that have missed games that would have had a significant impact on our team/season I'd have the following
waite/walker - both who provide a great deal of x-factor, aggression and add flexibility to the team
grigg/carazzo - both of whom provide a lot of run, defensive jobs, can get the contested ball. Whilst grigg has been back for a few matches, he has clearly been underdone and its only the past couple of weeks that he has started getting back to his best
jamison - important structurally, also taken a few games to get confidence back into his shoulder
warnock/jacobs - warnock was supposed to be primary ruck. As for jacobs well he was easily our #1 ruckman at the start of the season (excluding warnock). Would definitely have made a difference in hawks/freo games where we ran with setanta and then hampson.

C'mon statistics can be used to prove anything, 14% of all people know that.

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Chris Judd: 'I've since watched some Steven Seagal movies and realise pressure points are no laughing matter.'

And 83% of all statistics are made up

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Ecclesiastes 1:4, "One generation passes away, and another generation comes: but The Blues abide forever."

I agree re Walker but dont forget Waite Grigg and Carrots havent missed the season. They have all played at some stage and other than Waite will play out the rest of the season. Warnock always pops up when someone mentions who we have missing and this baffles me cuz what do we actually know about this guy until he has played a game?

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"Truth, for the tyrants, is the most terrible and cruel of all bindings; it is like an incandescent iron falling across their chests. And it is even more agonizing than hot iron, for that only burns the flesh, while truth burns its way into the soul"     — Lauro Aguirre

I put up waite, grigg and carrazzo's injuries in the context of the season.

Last season, grigg was one of our shining lights - this year he has missed about 1/2 the games. Of the games he has played since he has been back - the first few were fairly poor/showed a lack of touch - with game time he has quickly picked up back to the form/ability that he showed last season and was one of our best against richmond. Similarly carazzo has missed 1/2 the games thus far.

Had both grigg/carazzo been fully fit in the team against the bombers/hawks/freo early in the season, I'd suggest that we may have won at least a couple of those games.

On waite - the impact of his injury has been structural/loss of flexibility - easily in our top 5 players at the club in terms of importance to the team at the start of the season (along with judd, fev, kreuzer, murphy)

warnock - I actually dont put up stock into him being a guaranteed number 1 ruckman. See him more as a bonus if he develops as expected. The absence of warnock+jacobs has been fairly important in terms of structure - it meant we had to run with cloke/setanta for a bit as well as bringing hampson earlier than expected. In the medium term, I'd see us running 3 ruckmen in the team (provided warnock/jacobs develop) with kreuzer+hampson playing semi permanant forward roles.

Reckon the loss of Waite is the big one...along with AW's long absence....and Carrots to a degree as well. Waite and Walks will be a major boost to us when they are playing together. Both play for the jumper week in week out ala Judd and both can be matchwinners at either end. Carrots is my personal favourite....is in our top 5 IMO.

But back to the thread, we need to get to a stage where these absences do not mean we're buggered...all teams get injuries and some handle them better than others. We need to be in the group that handles them better...it comes down to depth which comes down to development of what we have. It is all linked and that is why it is so important to get each link in the chain right...

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"Truth, for the tyrants, is the most terrible and cruel of all bindings; it is like an incandescent iron falling across their chests. And it is even more agonizing than hot iron, for that only burns the flesh, while truth burns its way into the soul"     — Lauro Aguirre

Agree 100% - and was the point of my thread

We've had a significant increase in injuries (and consequently a less stable team) than in 2008. Had we experienced such injuries in 2008, we would have lost a lot more games/be further down the ladder.

We have improved ability to cope with key injuries (the hidden improvement) such that despite the injuries we are tracking ahead of last season (by about 2 goals/game) - one would reasonably expect that we will continue to improve in that area next season...

I'm of the belief that injuries can sometimes be a blessing in disguise...take Waite for instance..it meant we gave Austin more game time and the Irishman as well and both have worked out well.

Then take Austins absence and Carlos's absence recently which lead to Hartlett getting a go and to be honest he looked pretty good for most of the game on the weekend...so I guess thats why we all harp on so much on having the right people developing our guys so that no matter what happens injury wise...there will be an effective replacement groomed and ready to step up.

This a good thread by the way because it ties up with player development and the reason it is such an important aspect of any club pushing seriously for a flag tilt.

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"Truth, for the tyrants, is the most terrible and cruel of all bindings; it is like an incandescent iron falling across their chests. And it is even more agonizing than hot iron, for that only burns the flesh, while truth burns its way into the soul"     — Lauro Aguirre

agree - I also dont think hampson would have been given a run as early (and developed as quickly) had warnock/jacobs been available (though admittedly I'd also like to see jacobs develops as I think he can have a good future at the club).

Interesting post.
100% of posters who responded to it should have read it first.
As a mathematician, I like reading that sort of stuff.
As a mathematician, I like selecting the stats that prove my point.
Now if only I can find one....

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Let slip the Blues of war (with apologies to William Shakespeare) (and Sir Francis Bacon, just in case)