Formguide:
http://www.prowess.com.au/pro-stats/formguide.pdfThe key indicators:
Carlton are fast starters, Saints slow.
St Kilda are fast finishes, Blues slow.
The Saints punish turnovers better than most teams.
The Blues score 35% of goals from stoppages.
Our key midfielders may lay plenty of tackles, but they don't stick.
On paper it's simple, shut down the run of Dal Santo, Hayes, Montagna, Ray and Gram, then make accountable Goddard and Fisher. I'd be matching up with Houligan/Goddard, Gibbs/Hayes, Bannister/Dal Santo, Stevens/Ray and Armfield/Gram, Simmo/Montagna in a man/man contest around the ground.
In our defence I'd like to see AJ/Milne, Browne/Schneider, Jamo/Kozi and Bower/Reiwoldt with Austin the third man up to support. If our midfield role players do the job then I feel we can restrict the Saints to under 100pts, problem then is how do we kick the 16 goals to win the game?
Fev needs to realise his mates don't play for St Kilda but the Blues tonight. It's all setup for the Fev show, only problem is against the Saints it's generally the bad Fev show. If he can hold the fort within 30 I can see many chances coming for Betts/Garlett/Murphy and Judd, this is where we can win the game, mutiple goal scorers and forcing Goddard/Fisher to defend not create.
I'm really hoping for a peformance from our boys tonight, even if we don't win, we come away from the game with respect in the community. I can see us coming out strong and getting a lead at some stage during the night around 5 goals, that's when we will know how far we have come if we can hold the Saints charge off and come away with the win.
Saints by 43pts though unfortunately.