We simply HAD to win against Collingwood to stay in the hunt for the eight. Assuming 12 wins will be enough to make it (given our good percentage this should hopefully be enough, just) I think on our form so far its going to come down to Round 22 against Adelaide.

My best (dispassionate) guess for the remaining matches ...

Rd 9 v Adelaide (away) Loss
Rd 10 v West Coast (home) Win #5
Rd 11 v Brisbane (away) Loss
Rd 12 v St Kilda (home) Loss
Rd 13 v Essendon* (away) Win #6 (please!)
Rd 14 v Fremantle (away) Loss
Rd 15 v Richmond (home) Win #7
Rd 16 v Sydney (home) Win #8
Rd 17 v Collingwood (home) Win #9
Rd 18 v North Melbourne (away) Win #10
Rd 19 v Geelong (home) Loss
Rd 20 v Port Adelaide (away) Loss
Rd 21 v Melbourne (home) Win #11
Rd 22 v Adelaide (home) ????

Rds 15 to 18 will be critical - we will need to strings four wins in a row together - when was the last time we did that? Hopefully we will do it, and pinch a couple more so that it isn't this tight in the end. Of course, if we win this weekend against Adelaide then we are looking pretty rosy! Go Blues!

Yeah , will be touch and go .

Essendon* , Freo and Sydney seem to be bogey teams and will be hard to beat again . Don't even want to think about Geelong and St.Kilda .
Collingwood will be a lot stronger next time too .
The Adelaide , Port Adelaide , Brisbane games are all about even money .

Winning another 7 is not going to be easy .

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Get the facts first.
Then you can distort them at your leisure.

How about analysing the draws of other teams and tell me where they will get the wins to take our spot?

someone will make the 8 with 11 or even 10 wins (or 10 and a draw) and good percentage this year i reckon.


so many clubs are taking points of each other if that makes sense.

we are as good as brisbane, Essendon* and port and they are all a game ahead.

Except that Essendon* are also on 4-4. We're well ahead of them on percentage.

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And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

Yeah fair point.

But we wont deserve to be playing finals unless we start beating teams aside from Coll, Rich, WB, Melb every year.

Both Adelaide teams are a must, and so are both the WA teams if we realistically want be play finals.... not simply make up september numbers.

I see every game as winnable except for St Kilda and Geelong.

I'm not marking them down, but unlike past years I look at every one of those games and see them as totally winnable.

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Congratulations CK95

Agree apart from top 2 its very even between 10 clubs. 11 wins should get you in.

lol @ writing down every interstate game from here on in as a loss. We proved last year we can play interstate and Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide & Freo and more than winnable games.

Honestly I expect to beat every team including Geelong & St Kilda. When we're at our best I believe we can take it to those two clubs.

Good on you for trying but honestly I couldn't write down any immediate losses at this stage.

Losing aint good enough.

Interesting that after beating Brisbane earlier this year, people said that win wasn't an indication of how good we might be, as Brisbane aren't any good. Now, all of a sudden, we're expected to lose to them, that they're better than us, and are one of the teams in the mix for a finals spot?

FFS, get your stories straight.

We can beat any team on our day, and at least compete with St Kilda and Geelong.

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And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

6th is a possibility when looking at the draw for all teams.

I think we will win the next three - meaning we only need 5 out of the last 11 to make it

Big push the next three weeks be lift in intensity

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If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

We could very well be in 3rd spot by the end of the rd with a win against the Crows (They are on a 3 game loosing streak after losses to 2 teams we have beaten this year in the last 2 weeks) with the Lions taking on the Saints, the Bulldogs taking on Geelong and the Power taking on the Swans in Sydney (and we know how bad the Power can be on the road, look at their losses to the Roos, Saints and Eagles). The top 8 is generally fairly set by the end of what, rd 7ish, most years. We will most likely be in the top 4 by the end of rd 9 yet we are unlikely to make the 8 ??? We have already played the Hawks (and almost won) who are prob going to end up a top 4 side, KILLED the Dogs who are 3rd, narrowly lost to the Bombers (we were asleep) and Freo (didn't take them seriously) and Sydney at the SCG (our Bogey side at the ground their gameplay is designed for) yet it's all doom and gloom ??? We are a young team still finding our structure and working out our gameplan, fluctuation in form is expected but WE HAVE NOT BEEN OUT OF A GAME THIS SEASON (Except arguably the Swans game, mainly due to inaccuracy)

I was hoping for a 6-8 finish this season, still looks like we are on track for that ..............

We can also lose to any side on our day (except Mel)

Isn't there a stat that shows teams in the 8 at around this point in the year usually stay there into the finals?

We're an improving side that still has some niggles to iron out. We still need to get games into our younger players. How often do examples of this need to be given for people to understand this aspect of player development?!

Finally, last week we saw a clever alternate use of Fevola. If the players and coaching staff continue to develop and improve throughout the course of the year then we’ll win enough games to secure some September action.

Losses such as those against Essendon*, Sydney and Hawthorn should turn into wins.

We have played some very exciting football so far in 2009. As we get stronger, phsyically and mentally, we’ll gain more consistency.

Patience and faith.

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There are no easy games or certain wins. Being able to keep our core team on the park will play a huge part in whether or not we play finals. Teams that do well into the finals usually have good runs with injuries. I believe so far 19 of St Kilda's players have played all 8 games. It gives the team a chance to settle and for their team mates actions to become predictable. As per the standard footy cliche we just need to take it a week at a time. Make the most of our opportunities and if we lose to not lose by too much. Our percentage is very heathy at the moment and I think a healthy percentage may very well be the equivalent of an extra 4 points at crunch time.

Are you still "laughing out loud"? Geez - I'd love it if you were my bookie! My guesses were "dispassionate" - just trying to be realistic about our expectations for this year. Last year's away record means nothing - this is a different year and we are neither winning away nor the close ones this year.

Losing away to Adelaide was odds-on. Round 22 at the Dome will be evens I think.

A 6-8 finish (6-7 now, after the loss to Adelaide) won't get us to the finals will it!

I didn't say we were unlikely to make the 8. I said it will be tough to make it. And I stand by that! Its not doom and gloom - we are building a great side, that should be in GF in two or three years. Very happy with that. Just looking realistically at the schedule ahead and seems will be tough to squeeze in tot he 8 - thats all.

I really dont think we are anywhere near as good this year as you like to think. We lost to a very weak Hawks side, decimated by injuries. Dogs are not that good - only beat Melbourne by less than a goal didn't they?. Bombers are clearly travelling better than us at this stage - beats me how - we should be streets ahead of them with all the draft picks we've had. Freo we took seriously but still couldn't win - maybe cause we were on the road, but they beat us pre-season too when we had a full strength side. Pause for though on all of this. Twice beaten by Freo, beaten by Bombers, beaten by a weak Sydney side. We may be top 8, but only just and certainly not top 4 this year. Hopefully we can squeeze over the line, but it will likely be decided I think in Rd 22.

BTW - don't be fooled by historical statistics. Over here in the Premier League Tottenham had so few points midway through the season that no team has ever survived relegation from that position. They ended up mid-table, very comfortable. Point is, this season is very even, so anyone from 3rd to 14th could be in or out of the eight at the end.

Well to do it, we need to beat the Weagles, who may already be tanking, either way their not great.

Thing is with these law of average predictions, they often even out. I mean we may pinch 1-2 of the interstate ones, but will probably do something stupid and lose to Melbourne and Richmond to balance it.

I think from here on in:

Wagles - Win
Lions - Loss
St Kilda - Loss
Essendon* - Loss
Freo - Loss
Richmond - Win
Sydney - Win
Collingwood - Win
North - Win
Geelong - Loss
Port - Loss
Melbourne - Win
Adelaide - Win

That gives us 11, so either just in or out.

before the brisbane game all the media talk will be how we cant travel but this time we will prove em all wrong.