First up, I am not discussing the merits of making the finals - just the probability of it happening...

...please note I ain't no mathemematics genius so I've thrown down the possibilities in the way I best know how - Grade 2 Style.

LADDER (D'uh!)

GEE 19 18 1 0 2,260 1,410 160.28% 72
HAW 19 15 4 0 2,066 1,598 129.29% 60
WB 18 14 3 1 2,093 1,705 122.76% 58
SYD 18 10 7 1 1,702 1,451 117.30% 42
NM 18 10 7 1 1,690 1,718 98.37% 42
ADE 18 10 8 0 1,657 1,558 106.35% 40
STK 18 10 8 0 1,689 1,671 101.08% 40
COL 18 9 9 0 1,890 1,727 109.44% 36
--------------------------------------------------
BRI 19 9 10 0 1,904 1,892 100.63% 36
CAR 19 9 10 0 1,931 1,944 99.33% 36
RIC 18 8 9 1 1,852 1,965 94.25% 34
ESS 18 8 10 0 1,810 2,068 87.52% 32
FRE 18 5 13 0 1,633 1,736 94.07% 20
PTA 19 5 14 0 1,765 1,979 89.19% 20
WCE 18 3 15 0 1,385 2,080 66.59% 12
MEL 19 2 17 0 1,458 2,307 63.20% 8


Ok.

With Brisbane already losing, there is one thing we need to keep in mind now.


The 'Cheer on the Doggies' Scenario.



If the Dogs knock off North this week. (@ TS)
Then they knock off Brisbane next week. (@ G)
And we beat North next week. (@ TD)


We will be back in the 8.


From there, in the last two rounds Brisbane has:

Carl (G)
Syd (SCG)

and North Melbourne has:

Geel (SS)
PA (MCG)
________________________________

The 'Adelaide's Shit' Scenario.

Another avenue if either of North or Brisbane fire is Adelaide losing.

Adelaide have:

Rich (AS)
Ess (TD)
St. K (TD)
Dogs (AS)

Losses to a couple of these teams (as I don't rate Adelaide AT ALL I see this as a possibility) could see us leap-frog Adelaide before seasons end.

________________________________

The 'Saints/Pies Showdown' Scenario.

People may be cheering on St. Kilda (for apart from the obvious reasons, to give us the best chance of making the finals) - but in essence both St. Kilda and Collingwood have very easy draws in the run home.

ST KILDA play:

Coll (MCG)
Freo (S)
Adel (TD)
Ess (TD)

COLLINGWOOD play:

St. K (MCG)
Port (AS)
Syd (TD)
Freo (S)

What we'd need is either of these two teams to lose the majority.

There's no use in either team losing just one or two unless we plan to win our next three in a row.

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The 'Unlike Sydney' Scenario.

If Sydney knock off Freo they will be uncatchable, unless we win our last three and they drop their remaining all three games to:

Geel (ANZ)
Coll (TD)
Bris (SCG)





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Well there's a run down of the run home for the teams from fourth to tenth.

I didn't include teams beneath us, as for us to make the eight we'd need to win theoretically one - but realistically two and preferably three... and if this happens none of the teams beneath us will get a sniff.

Could we? Yep.

Will we? Nope.

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I AM DISENFRANCHISED

We should now be in a position (if we weren't before) that no matter what, this year has been a success. Having said that I obviously hope we don't finish the year with a "wimper". Need to finish strongly.

What I mean is that if this team gets a taste of finals this year that can only benefit their development for next year, irrespective of how they do in said finals.

If they don't make it this year, imo, they have gotten close enough now to almost taste it, which can only whet their appetites for better next year. Almost like they couldn't quite reach it, but know what it will take next year to make sure of it & they will. Stay hungry.

Hopefully by getting to where we have at present provides us with a win win situation, irrespective of whether we make finals this year or not.

I voted Hell Yes tho.

_________________
"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

If Richmond win in Adelaide tomorrow, they will make it.

Do i want to make it? YES

Do i think we will make it? NO

_________________
Walk on, Walk on,
With hope, in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone,
YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE!!!

08/02/1981 - GATE 7...Our brothers will never be forgotten!!!

I'm sorry....WHAT?

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WADA medical director Dr Alan Vernec describes Essendon* FC drug case as biggest scandal in team sport the world of sport has seen. #WC2WB

#GUILTY

If anyone suffers from bi-polar over the internet...its me!!!

_________________
Walk on, Walk on,
With hope, in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone,
YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE!!!

08/02/1981 - GATE 7...Our brothers will never be forgotten!!!

Very true, well said - the hunger of being close enough to make the finals into something tangible is almost as good as being there, I have not doubts about 2009.

There won't be no 'last roll of the dice' in 2009.



NOW we're on the same page brother!

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Blue Boys fow life!

no

_________________
"You don’t get much more Navy Blue than Stephen Kernahan" - Marc Murphy

As much as it hurts to say, I agree with the statement above.

We've dropped 2 or 3 too many matches, and our percentage isn't good enough to get us sneaking in.

But, that aside, I think this year has been a resounding success, because I can see success coming to us sooner rather than later, compared to the last few years, which were more of the same, over and over.

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And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

If we beat the Kangaroos next week and Freo beat the Saints at Subiaco (which I think they will) then yes we are a real chance.
Pity we didn't beat Port by around 100pts (as we should of) as percentage could be an issue.

_________________
There is no footy god

I think we will be ok for % - the issue will be the wins

I agree. We win our last three games...we make the 8. We drop one then we don't make it. That's the equation. If the boys can produce a month of football to remember then they will have deserved their reward...if not they will have definitely given us a taste of what is to come....whichever way it pans out our time has indeed arrived.....

_________________
"Truth, for the tyrants, is the most terrible and cruel of all bindings; it is like an incandescent iron falling across their chests. And it is even more agonizing than hot iron, for that only burns the flesh, while truth burns its way into the soul"     — Lauro Aguirre

If we win all 3, and it's not totally unreachable, then not only will the guys deserve the finals, but the last month will be a great build up and lead in to September.

September action. September glory!

Blueman promised!

_________________
And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

Just Playe3d Ladder Predicter on the AFL Website.

Tried 3 times. Had us in 1ce and out 2ce

Once we were out on equal pts with the saints....... Oh dont let it come down to % PLEASE!!!!

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Stay tuned We're in for a BUMPY ride

"It came to him in a dream..."


That's what I've been thinkin' KK, the boys are peaking at the right time - a testament to Justin Cordy and the coaches. We are running out games and running over our opposition, from the bottom up to the Swans and Dogs.

Anythings possible.


If we don't make it, that's fine.

But if we DO make it, the finals could produce anything.


Teams wouldn't be too worried about Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda and Brisbane.

We're the dark horse, the x-factor. Teams still don't know what we are capable of producing - let's see if they CAN show them over the next 3 weeks...

Finals are possible still for us just cant afford to drop a game easily and considering the train smash in the middle of the ladder if we get in there we will deserve it.

If we make it I think we will shake the finals tree.

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Can smell the gf its there for the taking we are the form side

Maybe it would be good for us to make the finals this year to give all the boys some finals experience without being under a huge amount of pressure to really win and progress through the finals. If we make the finals over the next couple of years (as we should) then I would say there will be a huge expectation to win and progress, getting at least one final under the belt this year would set us up nicely I would think.

BTW - I voted "HELL YES!"

Come on Blues