1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2481 1761 140.89 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2482 2022 122.75 78
3 Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2353 1957 120.24 72
4 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2338 2033 115.00 56
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2122 1831 115.89 54
6 St Kilda 22 11 11 0 2062 2055 100.34 44
7 Carlton 22 11 11 0 2167 2247 96.44 44
8 Nth Melb 22 10 11 1 2060 2144 96.08 42

9 Richmond 22 9 12 1 2224 2297 96.82 38
10 Bris Lions 22 9 13 0 2205 2173 101.47 36
11 Adelaide 22 9 13 0 2036 2009 101.34 36
12 Essendon* 22 9 13 0 2128 2450 86.86 36
13 Port Adel 22 7 15 0 2066 2197 94.04 28
14 Fremantle 22 5 17 0 1948 2132 91.37 20
15 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1809 2498 72.42 20
16 West Coast 22 4 18 0 1759 2434 72.27 16

Thought I'd throw this up again, & only after doing it on "The ladder predictor", at the request of a Collingwood supporter (thought Mandy might be interested also).

WB, GEE & HAW win all remaining games, irrespective of who they play, even CAR & COL.
GEE beat HAW this week.
CAR & COLL win all remaining games except those against WB, GEE & HAW, if any.
Other than those above-mentioned teams involvement ALL home sides win. Winners score 100 - Losers score 90 for all games.

That would mean we lose to WB & HAW, but beat ADE, NM, PORT & BRIS.

Fantasy, pipe dream, never happen that way. Look at the specific games for the rest of the season & following the above criteria it doesn't look out of whack. Maybe it's just me that's out of whack.

Maybe - Maybe not.

_________________
"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

i have found a slight flaw in prediction.........

pedantic i know

_________________
Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.

I will stop after this one.

Elimination Finals

Sydney v Nth Melb winner Sydney
St Kilda v Carlton winner Carlton

Qualifying Finals

Geelong v Collingwood winner Geelong
W Bulldogs v Hawthorn winner Bulldogs

Semi Finals

Collingwood v Sydney winner Collingwood
Hawthorn v Carlton winner Carlton

Preliminary Finals

Geelong v Carlton winner Carlton
Bulldogs v Collingwood winner Collingwood

GRAND FINAL

CARLTON V COLLINGWOOD winner CARLTON !!!!!!!!!!

Predicted Premiers: CARLTON

(come all ye doomsayers)

_________________
"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

Keen eye, but I meant GEE, WB & HAW all win their remaining games, except for this weekend, which is the only time in the remaining rounds that they play any of each other & GEE beat HAW.

_________________
"You will always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- Michael Jordan

The way I see that predictor is that North are really the only team we can replace, given the draws of the others. They are 6 points ahead of us, but we still play them, if we win that we're 2 points behind.

We play:

Dogs
Hawks
Lions (a)
Crows
Port

They play:

Demons
Lions (h)
Dogs
Cats
Port

Only chance is if we pinch one against Hawks, Dogs or Lions. Absolutely have to win the other 3.

_________________
"I had to eat"

After fiddling around with who should win and who could win, it always come up with us finishing between 9-11 every time.
Hopefully something unpredictable happens but I can't see us making finals, some say we still have a chance, I just can't see it.

_________________
The climbing has alread began

we either will or we won't.

This should open your eyes a little:

_________________
"If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself" - Henry Ford

I just did the ladder predictor with the results based on what I think are realistic outcomes from all the games. (apart from the biased Carlton win 3 from 4 scenario, which is the only realistic way we can make the finals):

LADDERS & FINALS PREDICTOR

Current Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Perc Pts
1 Geelong 18 17 1 0 2103 1369 153.62 68
2 W Bulldogs 18 14 3 1 2093 1705 122.76 58
3 Hawthorn 18 14 4 0 1956 1557 125.63 56
4 Sydney 18 10 7 1 1702 1451 117.30 42
5 Nth Melb 18 10 7 1 1690 1718 98.37 42
6 Adelaide 18 10 8 0 1657 1558 106.35 40
7 St Kilda 18 10 8 0 1689 1671 101.08 40
8 Collingwood 18 9 9 0 1890 1727 109.44 36
9 Bris Lions 18 9 9 0 1863 1782 104.55 36
10 Richmond 18 8 9 1 1852 1965 94.25 34
11 Carlton 18 8 10 0 1799 1879 95.74 32
12 Essendon* 18 8 10 0 1810 2068 87.52 32
13 Fremantle 18 5 13 0 1633 1736 94.07 20
14 Port Adel 18 5 13 0 1700 1847 92.04 20
15 West Coast 18 3 15 0 1385 2056 67.36 12
16 Melbourne 18 2 16 0 1417 2150 65.91 8



Predicted Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Perc Pts
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2584 1667 155.01 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 18 3 1 2517 2062 122.07 74
3 Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2385 1857 128.43 72
4 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2064 1752 117.81 54
5 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2079 2003 103.79 52
6 Nth Melb 22 11 10 1 2104 2132 98.69 46
7 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1986 1902 104.42 44
8 Carlton 22 11 11 0 2221 2249 98.76 44
9 Essendon* 22 11 11 0 2237 2479 90.24 44
10 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2189 2321 94.31 42
11 Collingwood 22 10 12 0 2199 2087 105.37 40
12 Bris Lions 22 9 13 0 2197 2197 100.00 36
13 Fremantle 22 6 16 0 1955 2156 90.68 24
14 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2010 2239 89.77 24
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1705 2518 67.71 12
16 West Coast 22 3 19 0 1667 2478 67.27 12




Things to note:

1) I had Brisbane finishing the season with 4 losses, including one to us which based on current form is more likely than us beating Hawthorn. The rest of the losses are realistic.

2) Colonwood finishing the season with 3 losses and a close win against the cue-in-the-rack Power, which is quite likely given the current situation.

3) Essendon* finishing with 3 from 4, with wins over WC, Adelaide and St. Kilda and a loss to the dogs to fall agonisingly short by percentage

4) Richmond finishing with 2 from 4, wining against Freo and Melb, but losing against Adelaide and Hawthorn. At least they didn't finish 9th

5) WC claiming the wooden spoon from Melbourne with some great tanking efforts.

6) Us playing St. Kilda in the first final. Oh well, if we make it, then there is no better time to start beating them again.


All in all, it is still quite possible to make it, but me must win at least 3 from 4 or we don't have much chance at all.

GO BLUES!!!!!

_________________
"If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself" - Henry Ford

Imagine playing St Kilda in the first final, we owe them big time. We would be a good chance

_________________
The climbing has alread began

just one spot above the wobblers

_________________
NG
S M C , S F L

Owe them big time - we do!!!!

Wouldn't it be ironic if the first time we had beaten them in 10 games was in a final, which knocked them out of the race? I couldn't think of anything better, especially considering we all thought we had to wait til next year to get one back on them. Going by my ladder and results, that would mean we would play Sydney in the second week of the finals; time to break another hoodoo!!!!

It's fun to dream isn't it?

Look, if we made it from here I wouldn't put anything past us.......

_________________
"If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself" - Henry Ford

realistically, hows it looking for finals at this stage? is it true that we need to win all four of our last games? if thats the case, then ive got to be a realist... and say bring on 5 vs 8

hehe if we need another four wins, i dont think we'll make it... the dawks will smash us, just to give us a nice send off and a sour memory for 2008.

but u know what they say... never say never my fingers are still crossed

_________________
"Let's not kid ourselves, we are the most successful club in the league … the arrogance should come back, and it's good, because we deserve to be the best."

No we don't have to win 4 from 4 to make it. You should probably read the rest of the thread.


And have a look at this piece of wizardry:
http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=21106&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=298

I, too am a realist

_________________
"If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself" - Henry Ford

1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2553 1710 149.30 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 17 4 1 2581 2104 122.67 70
3 Hawthorn 22 17 5 0 2426 1974 122.90 68
4 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2107 2057 102.43 52
5 Sydney 22 12 9 1 2094 1857 112.76 50
6 Richmond 22 12 9 1 2247 2320 96.85 50
7 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1990 1938 102.68 48
8 Nth Melb 22 11 10 1 2105 2168 97.09 46
9 Carlton 22 11 11 0 2242 2261 99.16 44
10 Collingwood 22 10 12 0 2284 2200 103.82 40
11 Bris Lions 22 9 13 0 2290 2236 102.42 36
12 Essendon* 22 9 13 0 2260 2543 88.87 36
13 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 2022 2087 96.89 28
14 Port Adel 22 7 15 0 2122 2249 94.35 28
15 West Coast 22 3 19 0 1762 2551 69.07 12
16 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1783 2613 68.24 12

_________________
"If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself" - Henry Ford

just fooling around with the ladder predictor again (after saturdays results) and this is what i came up with.

Predicted Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Perc Pts
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2750 1700 161.76 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 18 3 1 2545 2077 122.53 74
3 Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2275 1779 127.88 72
4 Sydney 22 12 9 1 2064 1849 111.63 50
5 Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2263 2065 109.59 48
6 Richmond 22 11 10 1 2237 2315 96.63 46
7 Nth Melb 22 11 10 1 2100 2195 95.67 46
8 Carlton 22 11 11 0 2201 2214 99.41 44
9 St Kilda 22 11 11 0 2032 2054 98.93 44
10 Essendon* 22 11 11 0 2253 2448 92.03 44
11 Adelaide 22 10 12 0 1977 1953 101.23 40
12 Bris Lions 22 9 13 0 2154 2197 98.04 36
13 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 2046 2128 96.15 28
14 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2001 2235 89.53 24
15 West Coast 22 3 18 1 1631 2451 66.54 14
16 Melbourne 22 2 19 1 1693 2562 66.08 10

so looking at that we would have the magpies in the first week of the finals! imagine that.

anyway the key results that would need to go our way for this result:

Sun 10th Aug
TD Nth Melb 100 v W Bulldogs 112
AAMI Adelaide 85 v Richmond 95
Sub West Coast 80 v Essendon* 120



ROUND 20
Fri 15th Aug
AAMI* Port Adel 75 v Collingwood 96
Sat 16th Aug
TD Essendon* 120 v Adelaide 90
Gab* Bris Lions 90 v W Bulldogs 130
Sun 17th Aug
MCG Richmond 90 v Hawthorn 100
TD Carlton 95 v Nth Melb 90
Sub Fremantle 120 v St Kilda 80



ROUND 21
Fri 22nd Aug
TD* W Bulldogs 120 v Essendon* 112
Sat 23rd Aug
MCG Richmond 110 v Fremantle 85
Gab* Bris Lions 80 v Carlton 85
TD* Collingwood 90 v Sydney 80
Sun 24th Aug
SS Geelong 190 v Nth Melb 130
TD St Kilda 90 v Adelaide 75



ROUND 22
Fri 29th Aug
Sub Fremantle 100 v Collingwood 90
Sat 30th Aug
MCG Nth Melb 90 v Port Adel 80
AAMI Adelaide 70 v W Bulldogs 90
TD* Carlton 90 v Hawthorn 99
SCG* Sydney 90 v Bris Lions 80
Sun 31st Aug
MCG Melbourne 80 v Richmond 90
TD Essendon* 91 v St Kilda 90

this going to come down to the wire and we are going to need a lot of results our way.

they above is based on us beating nth and brisbane and not getting belted by the hawks.

percentage could prove cruical and in a silly way yesterday result against port could cost us a place in the 8. we needed and should have won by about 40 more points.

we need to pick up as much percentage as possible and hope that some how the hawks and saints loose a heap.

i will be shattered if we miss out on the 8 on percentage alone.