Eight weeks to go and we are pressing for finals for the first time in a long time. Problem is we have a tough run home. The upside is that our destiny is completely in our hands.

I tried to compare our run home with the sides that we are competing against and it doesn't look flash.

I have assumed that Collingwood and Adelaide lose next week (although it
doesnt really affect my theory)

Assume that the top 4 are set in stone and Hawks, WB, Swans and Cats have a difficulty ranking of 3 points.

The next six teams are vying for finals spots and all around the same level, so Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, St Kilda, North Melbourne and Carlton have a difficulty rating of 2 points

The bottom six teams Bombers, Tigers, WCE, Freo, Port and Melb have a difficulty ranking of 1 point.


So the run home for the middle six teams (in current ladder order) looks like this.

Adelaide 2 x 3 pointers, 3 x 2 pointers, 3 x 1 pointers - Total Difficulty 15 points

Brisbane - 3 x 3 pointers, 2 x 2 pointers, 3 x 1 pointers - Total Difficulty 16 points

Collingwood 2 x 3 pointers, 3 x 2 pointers, 3 x 1 pointers - Total Difficulty 15 points

St Kilda 1 x 3 pointers, 3 x 2 pointers, 4 x 1 pointers - Total Difficulty 13 points

Carlton 3 x 3 pointers, 4 x 2 pointers, 1 x 1 pointers - Total Difficulty 18 points

North Melb 2 x 3 pointers, 3 x 2 pointers, 3 x 1 pointers - Total Difficulty 15 points



So it appears that St Kilda has the easiest run home 13pts, followed by Adelaide, Collingwood and North on 15 points, Brisbane on 16 points and the Blues on 18 pts.


I guess if we make the finals it means that we would have earned our spot so it is up to the boys to rise to the challenge. The job is definitely ahead of us but i reckon 4 more wins (especially against Saints and Roos) might see us there.

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Ecclesiastes 1:4, "One generation passes away, and another generation comes: but The Blues abide forever."

Making the finals is of little interest really IMO.
I think it's a positive that we've got a tough run home because it'll say a lot about the individuals on the playing list and the selection philosophy going forward as well.
Looking forward to it with great interest.

Shouldn't you divide our 18 points by the Wiggins coefficient?

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#DonTheStash

I agree - I wouldn't be upset if we don't make it - I just think that the next eight weeks is a great opportunity to set some goals and take it up to all comers. If we are successful it would have been on the back of hard graft rather than 'easy' games.

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Ecclesiastes 1:4, "One generation passes away, and another generation comes: but The Blues abide forever."

We will beat the Swans - they have two big games coming up Collingwood and Hawthorn - We will cop them on a down week with an extra two day break .

Get over the Saints then beat the Swans

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If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

That would be nice.

I would be happy with wins over the Saints and Swans alone. We haven't beaten them for so long. Hopefully the wheel is turning.

Two hard fought victories over those teams would bring enough satisfaction for me.

However, the Swans's defence is the best in the league. I can't see it happening, but would be in favour of being pleasantly surprised.

Yesterday (Melbourne beating the Loins) shows that no game is a given. We have a few 8 point games, Saints, North and Brisbane. We need to win these if we are any chance.

Spot on , Ratts will find out a lot about the character of individuals over the next 8 weeks.

But for me the perfect scenario would be to sneak into the 8 in the last round at the expense of The Pies.

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Hooked on The Blues

7 wins from 11 is pretty good form. I reckon 4 from 8 will get us to the borderline.

Saints - 60%
Swans - 60%
Dogs - 20%
Crows - 50%
Port - 80%
Kangas - 55%
Lions - 40%
Hawks - 35%

We'll win against Saints, Swans, Port and North. We could possibly beat Crows and Brisbane.

We'll be close.

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end of message

Total crap that we have to talk about 'tough runs home'.

Wouldn't really matter if all teams played each other twice.

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THEY LIKE TO SEND UP!!!!!!!!

Until each team plays each other the same number of times, the AFL, as a fair dinkum competition, cannot be taken seriously.

He (Mr Swann) said the honour and pride associated with the club's traditional navy blue jumper was priceless.

good post darknavy

if we dont win this week, then we are gawn

still loving it this year tho.

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Go Blues

Would love to smash our Saints and Swans losing streaks

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"I had to eat"

Very much like our chances against St Kilda, Nth and Port.

Unfortunately, looking at that list of teams, nearly everyone (except Port) will be fighting tooth and nail for every win to either get into the finals, or get a better slot in the finals.

What we definitely need is a decent run with injuries while we starting getting some players back in (Walker primarily, and I am hoping against hope Hadley can make an impression this year).

No coincidence to me that our best performance of the year came when Hadley looked fit and was looking after Judd.

If we get there, we'll have earned it.

Agreed - who ever thought of playing a home and away season to make the finals...

Perposterous.

Have a big chance against the Aints but Sydney should be too accomplished for us at this stage.

Carlton
St Kilda, Sydney (home), Western Bulldogs, Adelaide (away), Port Adelaide (home), North Melbourne, Brisbane (away), Hawthorn

St Kilda
Carlton, Hawthorn, West Coast (away), Port Adelaide (home), Collingwood, Fremantle (away), Adelaide (home), Essendon*

North Melbourne
Port Adelaide (away), Collingwood, Melbourne, Brisbane (home) , Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Geelong, Port Adelaide (home)

Obviously St Kilda are in the box seat with an easy run home and we must beat them in our next match to have a realistic chance.

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There is no footy god

Don't assume that Collingwood, Adelaide or Brisbane are safe

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Ecclesiastes 1:4, "One generation passes away, and another generation comes: but The Blues abide forever."

Need to beat St Kilda and Sydney, no question about that!

I don't want to run home, I'd prefer to walk.

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And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

Good point - Collingwood might struggle however I'd be very surprised if Adelaide or Brisbane miss.

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There is no footy god