Jarusa wrote
Quote:
Let's say we lose the next two.
We will be 4-7.
After that we have four winnable games in a row at our new happy hunting ground, the MCG.
Collingwood
Essendon*
Richmond
St Kilda
Win these four and we are suddenly 8-7.
Seven rounds to go.
Sydney and Bulldogs at home.
Adelaide away.
Port and Kangaroos at home.
Brisbane away.
Hawthorn at home.
No more MCG games though.
Tough to win 4 of those seven. But if confidence is up anything can happen. Finals are not out of the question. If we do make finals as a result of winning 4 out of the last 7 games then we truly deserve to be there.
Yes MCG seems to be a happy hunting ground notwithstanding the Bumbers and Tiggers losses).
I'd say it's a 50/50 bet to make the finals. Seriously!
Anything can happen. Injuries, suspensions, form slip, form improvement, team gelling, player development can affect any team one way or another.
The bottom line is, whilst the current 8 look like they're set in stone for some, it's not an absolute, and history will tell you that change to the 8 between mid season and end is inevitable.
I don't think it matters who we play at either MCG or TD we have a chance to beat all teams. Hawks and Geelong are the tough ones of the lot. Who knows what'll happen against the Hawks in the last round. They are young and may tire or suffer injury to Franklin and Mitchell. We may have our best team in with a bit of momentum. Judd and Hadley may be playing at 95% rather than 80% fitness.
Even at our weakest period, we pushed WCE (when powerful) at Subiaco for 3 Q's of a game and this year we turned the table, same with Adelaide at AAMI (we should have beaten them and Chamberlain). We even beat PA at AAMI. Last year and the year before we pushed Swans till the last minutes...and that's when we giving away goals in red time.
We are getting better by the week. I don't care too much if we make finals or not, but I just can't dismiss the possibility of enjoying a purple patch at some stage. We did it last year, and we were nowhere near the team we are this year.
If 12 games gets us into the 8 (and our % isn't dire like in the past) we would therefore need 8 more wins from the remainder 13 games. This implies we can drop a maximum 5 games for the rest of the year. Whilst it doesn't seem plausible in May, it is moreso probable than it was in April and even moreso again than it was in March (refer to TC threads).
If we drop the Cats, Hawks, Swans, Dogs, Pies games and win the rest of them (not requiring a purple patch), then its a possibility. We may even meet those abovementioned teams during our purple patch.
I'm in the process of weighing up the chance of Finals footy for The Blues after the Cats game, so I can decide whether to put some money on them to make the 8, the very minute after the game.
No doubt in my mind we're on the way up and improving. Kids may tire, but we have Walker, Jamison, Hadley, Banno and possibly Houlihan (Anderson, Pfieffer and Edwards) to help recharge the batteries.
Hey maybe even Aisake may show some G & D to make the grade and shock us all.