of those comparisons i would take the following if i could choose only one
roughead franklin murphy gibbs birchall hampson judd (i gave him comparison to mitchell) and ellis

That's fairly selective. Where does that leave Fisher, Simpson, Carrazo, Edwards, Betts, Walker, etc etc etc?

Two years ago Hawthorn looked like we do now - a bunch of talented kids who could be anything within a couple of years given good coaching and a good game plan.

Three years ago 99.9% of people on here thought Simpson would never get a touch.

A lot can change in a short time. These kids need to all get to the 50-70 game mark before you make a call on whether Hawthorn's kids are better than ours. Some are going to click instantly (such as Murphy) whilst others (such as Simpson) take longer. Bower may be the league's premier attacking half-back within two years. Birchall's had 28 more games pumped into him. Some of these kids were hardly given a run under Pagan and when they were they'd get 15 minutes of game time if they were lucky.

In two years time there'll be players whom we'd all thought would make it who haven't come on and others we all thought were gone who've pulled something out of nowhere.

The bulk of Hawthorn's side have played over 50 games. The bulk of ours hasn't. They're at a different point of the cycle. How about we compare Hawthorn's team of now with ours in early 2010? Right now I'll compare Hawthorn in Round 6 2006 versus us now. That's fair. Suggesting our guys aren't up to that standard when they're still finding their feet and getting games under their belt is at best unfair.

In 2006 Hawthorn won 9 games and lost 13. We're currently in similar territory.

If we wrote off kids for not being instant stars the way some want to on here neither Brett Ratten nor Bruce Doull would have played more than four seasons for the Carlton Football Club.

_________________
“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

- ADVANTAGE - HAWTHORN

So dont really know why you their list is better than ours - yes they are further developed, but does our list have a bigger scope for that dreaded word, potential!

Roughead v Hartlett - obviously a clear win to the Hawks, but considering he was a No 2 pick, not a surprise. Hartlett has disappointed to date with the major issue being chronic hamstring injuries. Can pretty confidently state at this time that HAWTHORN win this.

Franklin v Kreuzer - difficult comparison to make with Franklin having been in the system for a few years, with Kreuzer only playing a few games. Also, play very different roles, Franklin as the main target inside F50 and Kreuzer as more of a ruckman. Both are extremely athletic and have the ability to play well at ground level, as well as overhead. Franklin still has issues kicking for goal and would be interesting to see how well he coped if he wasn't getting an armchair ride from his midfield. Kreuzer has looked great in his few games and forgetting ability for a second has shown great courage to go back into packs and also dive in for the hard ball. I reckon this will end up being a draw or even possibly a win to CARLTON.

Lewis v Murphy - there is no doubt that Lewis is a talented midfielder, hard at it and has a great left foot. Some queries over his ability to use his right foot, but also gets sucked in easily and has had issues with suspension. Murphy has hardly put a foot wrong since starting his AFL career - already had to cope with coming back from a major injury and dealing with hard tags. His biggest asset is his immaculate disposal by foot and the ability to stay calm and make the right decision under pressure 99% of the time. A freak and I think will definitely be advantage CARLTON.

Sewell v Gibbs - another one that is a hard comparison to make. Sewell stands out by being hard at it and running hard. Has really come on in the last couple of years after a slow start to his career. Gibbs is only in his second season and already has shown plenty of skill and class. Only question mark is on the odd occasion may have shirked a contest, though has often followed this up by getting in after it. Excellent tackler, excellent disposal by foot. Serving an apprentice in the backline, though has shown through stints in the midfield the ability to provide run and also get great clearances. Considering how long it took Sewell to come on, I'd think Gibbs would overtake him reasonably soon. Advantage - CARLTON

Birchall v Bower - honestly, haven't seen a lot of Birchall, so maybe others should comment on this. To me, appears to be more of an attacking half back flank who has excellent disposal off his left foot (efficieny of over 80%). Not sure about his defensive skills one on one and think this is an area he could possibly be exploited. Bower has come on in leaps and bounds this year and would be one of the most improved players in the league. Had big question marks last year over his defensive ability and also his decision making under pressure. Has eradicated any doubts about his defensive ability and shown a much greater aptitude this year for staying with an opponent and nullifying with defensive spoils. Still causes concern with his penchance for running out of the backline, but in a way, his desire to provide run, rebound and carry can be seen as a positive. Still makes some iffy decisions and execution can be variable, but nothing that wont improve with more experience. I'd say this one is about EVEN.

Boyle v Hampson - again, very hard to compare. I dont think either has shown a lot and I know Boyle showed some good signs last year, but he was playing third string to Franklin and Roughead and getting supply from a dominant midfield, so he was always going to look good. Hampson has all the physical attributes, but again is only very new to the game and only played a few games. This one is pretty much all based on potential, but I'd think that we have the more potential for upside.

Mitchell v Judd - no contest. Mitchell is a great player, but Judd is Judd. Advantage - CARLTON

Ellis v Russell - Think the points probably go to HAWTHORN on this one, Russell has struggled to find his feet at AFL level, but with perserverance and continuing to play in the one position, could show something this year. Has definitely shown some improvement. Ellis could be anything and at the moment is benefitting from playing in a winning side.

So I wouldn't go and say that Hawthorn has a better list - this doesn't even include our young/middle rung players such as Jamison, Walker, Simpson, Browne, Carrazzo, Waite, Thornton....

Carlton is still a bit behind Hawthorn in terms of the number of quality draft picks taken - this is because of the draft penalty period.

We are also still a bit behind Hawthorn in terms of player development.

But these gaps are now closing.

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My Blue Heaven

We are behind because they traded players to get early picks.
We are behind because they managed their list better than we did.

No doubt they managed their list better than us (not hard when you don't miss 2 years of high draft picks) but I'm unconvinced they've made all that much of the high draft picks they picked up as a result of trading mature players. I would have liked us to be more pro-active with guys like Whitnall (I wanted to trade him 5-6 years ago) however I keep hearing about how Hawthorn traded their way to draft glory and yet the evidence just doesn't back it up for mine.

Hawthorn have traded a number of players over the last few years. What did they get for them?

Daniel Chick went to the Eagles for Pick 8 (a trade that was forced on them) which was used on Luke Brennan.
Nathan Thompson was traded for Pick 10 (which was on-traded to Collingwood for Bo Nixon & Pick 7 ie Jordan Lewis) and Pick 26 which was used on Mathew Little.
Jonathan Hay was traded for Pick 18 which was used on Max Bailey.
Jade Rawlings was pushed into the PSD in the pre-season draft (along with the trade of Lachlan Veale) allowing the Hawks to gain Pick 6 from the Bulldogs which was then used to get Danny Jacobs from Essendon* (Mark Alvey was also part of this deal but not relevant to the Hawks).
Daniel Harford and Brett Johnson were traded for Pick 51 which was used to pick up Mathew Ball.
Nathan Lonie went to Port Adelaide for Pick 14 with which they took Grant Birchall.
Peter Everitt went to Sydney for Pick 33 which was used on Jarryd Morton.


So overall it's like this:

Hawks Trade Gains

Luke Brennan - gone
Bo Nixon - gone
Mathew Little - gone
Max Bailey - played 4 games then injured
Danny Jacobs - gone
Jordan Lewis - 66 games - going well
Mathew Ball - gone
Grant Birchall - 46 games - going well
Jarryd Morton - yet to debut

Hawks Trade Losses

Daniel Chick
Nathan Thompson
Jonathan Hay
Jade Rawlings
Daniel Harford
Brett Johnson
Nathan Lonie
Peter Everitt

In the meantime the Hawks used the picks they were entitled to (both standard picks and priorities) to pick up the following players:

Jarryd Roughead
Lance Franklin
Xavier Ellis
Cyril Rioli

None of these four came to the club as the result of anything other than a pick Hawthorn was entitled to. Obviously we could go back further and include guys like Hodge and Mitchell who came from picks gained in the Croad to Fremantle deal but that's now 7 years ago.

The two best big man pick ups of the last five years are without doubt Franklin and Roughead. Hawthorn picked those two up with their existing draft picks not picks they traded for. Take those two out of the equation and their list looks a whole lot less impressive. Richomd and the Dogs had a chance to get at least one of Roghead and Franklin but took Deledio, Griffin and Tambling instead. Hard to see how we could have benefitted from that little windfall and yet if you removed Franklin and Roughead from Hawthorn's side and put them in ours I have no doubt we'd be above them on the ladder right now.

My point is - for all the EXTRA draft picks that Hawthorn's traded into at the pointy end over the last 5-6 years they've really only got something substantial out of Birchall and Lewis.

Perhaps the real reason they're doing well is because of what they cut rather than what they gained and the fact that the time when the system gave them two picks in the top 5 they fluked the two great big man talents of the last few years?

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“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

Gee that is an awfully long post. Your last paragraph has some relevance as to why they are in the position they are in today. It is all about list management as they were prepared to take two steps back to go five steps forward. But hey you reckon they fluked it.
Luke Darcy has been going on about trading Fevola, it is not to dissimilar to what Hawthron did. I notice you think Hodge and Mitchell should be excluded but that has to go down as the deal of the century and those guys are the same age as Judd. Hawthorn Football Club have balls. I can go back further if you like, Paul Chapman is a pretty good player and Michael Mansfield is gone.

Let alone waste two No. 1 pre season pics on Dylan McClaren and Cain Ackland...

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James Hird and Essendon* FC - #FOREVERDRUGCHEATS

Did you read the post or just pick out the bits that suit you?

The point is that Roughead and Franklin are the major difference over the last 5 years and they came through picks they were entitled to not traded for.

_________________
“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

They were entitled to those picks because they traded players who in the short term made the team finish lower that it would have if they kept those players. It is no different to whether our club decides to trade Fev. If Fev was not in our team next year we would be a good chance to finish a few psotion lower which would improve our draft position plus give us extra picks. In 3 years time if we lost Fev and picked up a Franklin and Roughead with Judd, Murphy, Gibbs and Kruezer with and extra 60 games under their belt do you think we would be better off?
All we would have to do is fluke it just like Hawthorn.

Whilst all the arguments are sound, one point needs to be noted: Carlton is following its own trajectory, not Hawthorn's, not Geelong's, certainly not Freo's. I believe strongly we have improved markedly at this point and one of the salient observations I can make about the current Carlton side is the level of optimism generated, not only amongst the players, but amonst the supporters. Its something also to be noted because, never did at any stage during Pagan's reign I feel this kind of hope- in fact, I often despaired at when would we ever show something! We now have some serious talent, coupled with proven matchwinners (Fevola, Judd) and more significantly, a cohesive and highly functional club board, headed by an exceptional CEO, means Carlton can look forward with some authority. So, let's enjoy the ride and not get bogged down about what we don't have because.....to quote a famous son, "We are Carlton, @#%! the rest!"

I rate Hawthorns list as better than ours..........lets face it they have Franklin who is about the most talented player to come along since Carey.
They also have KPP talent in surplus........

Mitchell vs Judd.......more like Hodge vs Judd......you would still give it to Judd on his best days but the difference would be smaller

Mitchell vs Stevens.....I'd be going Mitchell and easy....

Only area Hawthorn lack is down back where the likes of Croad, Gilham and Dawson get found out and they have to use the shorter Campbell Brown to bandaid...
Take Geelong out of the comp and the Hawks would be easy premiers IMHO.....Clarkson has got them to the point where they can win the flag if it wasnt for Geelong.
Dont think we can lay claim to that.......

_________________
"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

That's the point - no other team has been able to fluke two serious talls. St Kilda got Riewoldt & Koschitzke but that's not in the league of Franklin and Roughead.

Hawthorn may have had balls but had the Bulldogs or the Tiges taken one of those two then Hawthorn wouldn't have both of them.

That's luck.

Why do you assume we'd manage to pick up a Franklin and a Roughead when there just aren't many quality talls full stop let alone two in a single draft. How many other sides have managed to draft two talls of that quality in a three year period let alone on the one day?

I'm not suggesting Hawthorn haven't done reasonably well with their strategy - just that there's a big slice of luck in there too and there's no guarantee that that luck will be replicated by anyone following the same path.

_________________
“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

Clarkson did go out of his way to draft tall KPP players/rucks , he wanted a team of big units......that was his strategy, granted he had his picks when the talented big blokes were available...

re: Reiwoldt and Kosi......I reckon they are very good players who in the right team with the right coach would be successful...Grant Thomas with his ruckman are not needed approach and other left field ideas didnt do them especially Kosi any favours.
I rate them as a duo as good as Franklin and Roughead......put both of them in our team and we are top four material and challenging Hawthorn.

_________________
"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

Strategy is that which top management does that is of great importance to the organization.
Strategy refers to basic directional decisions, that is, to purposes and missions.
Strategy consists of the important actions necessary to realize these directions.
Strategy answers the question: What should the organization be doing?
Strategy answers the question: What are the ends we seek and how should we achieve them?

Sorry no mention of luck. We agree to disagree.
I would be very interested to see what our strategy is because there would be some that would say that we already have enough talent to take us to the next premiership and now it is a matter of just filling in the gaps e.g. Hawthorn's lucky selection of Cyril Rioli. I'm not in that camp.
I see our forward structure being our short/meduim and long term weakness.

Where did I say that strategy was luck?

I said they'd done reasonably well with their strategy.

In no way does that eradicate the possibility that luck played a part in their getting Roughead and Franklin in a single draft.

_________________
“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

GWS the following positions at the new Gold Coast FC will be filled soon:
Recruting Manager
CEO
Head Coach
Football Manager

The first question they will be asked:

Are you lucky?

They're talking to Michael Voss for a coaching role so they're obviously banking on strategic genius.

I'll give them your number...

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“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”
Turkish Proverb

Voss said he was lucky, he has 3 flags to prove it.

Luck is preparation meets opportunity.

See St Kilda and the preparation part.