AGRO wrote:
marciblue wrote:
there can be no argument that picks 1,3 & 20 is far better that picks 4 & 21 (for example).
Apparently there are some around here who quite fervently believe there is no difference.

* Slows down speech *
In terms of making a difference over the next 3-5 years, getting and extra PP will have less influence than everything else I have previously outlined.
* Resumes normal speech *
Marci, not sure if 1,3 & 20 are far better than 4 & 21, but having the earlier picks definately increases the probabilities of getting a good player. I think we have some latent talent that could be anything with the right development and environment. If picks 1-5 guaranteed you a superstar everytime then perhaps a different story but it doesn't work that way. I read a a couple of years ago where the Swans actually quantified the probability of success of draft picks (article was in the weekend AFR I think), and they came to the conclusion 1st round draft picks were overrated. Hence why they regularly traded their 1st rounders (with some degree of success). That's why I would rather see us develop and start winning now, may seem like we are giving up something but I strongly believe this will be of more benefit in the long term for our existing youngsters. It could also mean the difference between some of our premium youngsters wanting to stay or not. And we if recruit astutely, we might pick up a gem at 21 (we got Simmo at 45 which was a great get in the infamous '02 draft).
And I'll be there this Saturday and I'll be in full voice. That's what being a supporter is all about.