exsing wrote:
The Duke wrote:
We need to do a deal THIS trade period. We can't allow him to be un-contrcated in 2008 given that there's a fair chance Essendon* and StKilda will be in the lower part of the ladder and we know how they do business

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We have to get a quality player and high draft pick to ensure our present and future - that's going to be hard to achieve - Good luck Swannie!
I agree. I think we are at a stage now where we SERIOUSLY have to think about trading Fev. He is a great player, no doubt. But we cannot run the risk of him throwing in the towel next year. We can't lose this gem for nothing. We are in the BEST position in YEARS to do a killer trade, we have to strike while the coal is hot.
Sheedy on SEN this morning said that in his mind, Fev is worth 2 first round picks without a doubt. Good signs. Other clubs, take note! Fev is a once in a life time forward, start organising your offers!
PS. For the Fev fans out there, I am in awe of Fev too. In a perfect scenario, I would love for Fev to stay. But I just can't see him committing to the club 100%. The thing that could hurt most is that, after all the support we give him now, he may turn around and flower us up by saying he wants out at the end of 2008. That would be a tragedy for all those who have supported him. Can any of you GUARANTEE he won't do that?
What they said!
There are three possible scenarios in all this...
1. Fev stays at Carlton and gets his act together and is a star for the next 5 years.
2. Fev stays at Carlton, doesn't get his act together, doesn't fulfil his potential, and is disruptive. We don't get value out of him, and we don't get trade value, because he is a year older, out of contract, another year of poor history etc.
3. We trade Fev now, while he is still under contract, so there is no risk of losing him for nothing, and while he still has very high currency. We get a deal that we are very happy with (there is no chance he will be traded for an average deal, not with Pratt and Swann overseeing things)...players and / or draft picks that help the Club move forward (and Fev goes elsewhere, and is either a success or otherwise).
The simple question is...which of these three options is MOST likely to provide the BEST outcome for Carlton?
IMHO...
Option 1 - we would all love Fev to get his act together, become a reaql leader, and kick 80+ goals a season for the next 5 years. If we KNEW he was going to do that, I doubt anyone on here would be advocating that we trade him. HOWEVER, there is no gurantee that this will happen. In fact, his track record over 9 years, with all the chances he has been given, suggests that he will not.
But we don't know, so the question is, how much of a risk is it?
Option 2 - disastrous.
Option 3 - If we get great players / picks, then the probability of a great outcome is very high (not guaranteed of course, but nothing is guaranteed).
So, it's option 1 or 3, and for me, the scenario that is most likely to benefit the Club (which needs every bit of benefit it can get) is to trade Fevola. It has the least risk, and the potential for upside is just as great.