Didn't Cinderella kick 5 for the Pies on the weekend?

If it were great easy for clubs to get good players late in the first round Brisbane would have absolute gun kids and they wouldnt have worried about asking a top 3 pick for Headland.. they would have taken pick 20.
If recruiting guys like Hird at 70 is smart recruiting.. why not recruit them with your first round pick???I bet their first 4 rounders that year wouldnt have played 100 games between them.

There is arsey late round recruiting and then there is playing the percentages.
Gets back to planning really.

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Smart recruiting. Why take a guy no one else is going to look at in the first round when you can get someone who will go in the first round. They saw something in James, knew no one else either saw it, rated him or had even seen him.

The poor part was that the 4 players they took before him didn't work out.

Its shows its an inexact science so high picks don't guarentee good players.

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"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent." Qui-Gon Jinn 15-05-2005

"there’s more chance of me becoming the full forward for the [Western Bulldogs] than there is of any change in the Labor Party." Julia Gillard 18-05-2010

Anyone can find a gun in the first half of the first round, that is a merry-go-round every club gets to pick from sooner or later. The recruiters just tick off the boxes.

It is the ability to pick gun players in the second and third rounds that can quickly 'advance' one club, relative to others.

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Brad shows how much you understand about the draft and kids...ever watched the TAC.. and the state carnival thinggy??
The four or six they took before him was during them 'olden days' when clubs knew less but recruiting.
If youre fair dinkum enough about saying you would rather have one pick 70 plus to four 1.2.3 and 4 round picks youre a joker!.
Now do you follow the TAC>??? I mean have you ever been down and watched more than one game live?
Spoken to recruiters and followed the fortunes of the kids?
Im not talking about from the papers, net or by what people on Big Footy have written???

Which games have you watched this year live?
An inexact science it might be but its still all about mathematics.
Mathematics will tell you if you have enough top 4 picks you will have more than your equal share of CHAMPIONS.
Foolhardy thinking will tell you youll get the same kind of players as consistently later in the draft.

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that would complimet what you have.
Again... have you watched the kids??
Who have you seen this year?
Which kids that are likely to go late have really impressed you to make it???
show us the stats of which groups of draftees are more likely to make it historically.
I know you have the stats J.

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I'm sure I read somewhere that Hird was kind of hidden in Canberra by Essendon* so that he slipped under the radar of other clubs.

Couple of good posts from Shakin and BBB...more resources into recruiting is what I say..its become a bigger job and even though you have your recruiting officer and scouts you almost need a team of recruiting officers...
You need luck too...a player like Coughlan as a second rnder and then getting a freebie like Adam McPhee are the type of luck we really need to get things moving faster...its does make you wince a bit when you see us with a good selection of early picks and we couldnt nail anything as good as Coughlan or McPhee in 2000...

I am just saying if you were a recruiter all you would concentrate on was the top 6 picks, and leave the rest to themselves because they are less important. i.e. the top picks are important, but you are placing too much importance on them.

All this talk of watching kids is quite disturbing.

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Another thing... just to put an end to this ridiculous debate about the worth of top 5 picks.

If you were starting a team from scratch and were offered the top 5 draft picks of one year or the last five picks of the first round of tyhe same year what would you take????

Because i seriously think some of you frollicked off to the Dandenongs after the game on saturday and went picking for some magic mushies...

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J, as a recruiter you will deal with whatever youre given.
As a recruiter the club may have traded your first , second and third round picks for Mansfield and O`Reilly... or had them stripped away on Black Friday... it doesnt mean youd be rapt about it.

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Did you consider what I said? I didn't say you're just as likely to draft a champion in the 4th Round. Of course you're more likely with a Top 4 pick. I said why would Essendon* have drafted James with a first round pick when they knew they could get him with a 4th round pick.

We drafted Houlihan at #73 (?) for whatever reason. I remember Shane O'Sullivan saying we've got the best of the brothers and having high hopes for Ryan. Why didn't we draft him with our first pick? Either because we rated others above Ryan or we knew we'd still be able to get him at #73 and could get the other players we liked, who wouldn't be there at #73, before him. Smart drafting. The fact those players may not have turned out is poor identification.

To answer your questions (because I don't have a problem answering questions and admitting I don't know) I know nothing about the players coming through the TAC. Haven't been to see a game, wouldn't even know where to find the grounds. Never spoken to a recruiter in my life that Im aware of or followed the forunes of the kids. I bow down to you on each of these points. If Wayne Hughes comes to ask for my advice on which kids to draft I'd tell him he's asking the wrong guy, go see synbad. He's not likely to ask me though.

Drafting higher obviously gives you a greater chance of picking the best of the known players. It doesn't guarentee you success and it doesn't mean you can't identify kids that havent gone through the system. Karl Norman being the example of that. Clearly better than a 4th round pick.

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"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent." Qui-Gon Jinn 15-05-2005

"there’s more chance of me becoming the full forward for the [Western Bulldogs] than there is of any change in the Labor Party." Julia Gillard 18-05-2010

Ok, so you dont get along but you think you know what its about... good... enough said..
The best of the Houllihan brothers means alot of things to alot of different people.
Im sure to some people it might mean its like having caught the best of the venereal disaeses.

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I don't think anyone in their right mind is saying that early first round picks are not the best formula to develop future champions. I don't think any of us are that stupid.

But...... It's not the only way.

The top 4-6 picks are normally lay down miseres and anyone from the best recruiter in the land to anyone of us could get them in the right order without too much trouble. (give or take)

The real art with recruitment is the later picks. The Dean Cox's, Chad Flethcer's and hopefully the Raso's or the O'hailpin's.

The "Morning Glory" team talked about the book "Moneyball": (The Art of Winning an Unfair Game). It's about the Oakland A's who with a smaller recruitment budget than nearly every other team broke conventional wisdom and become the 2nd most successful side in the era.

So if we finish last then so be it. But let’s not aim for that result. It's a loser’s attitude that has no place at Carlton. Let’s not rely on us picking up Chris Judd at pick 3. If we do then great! But let roll up our selves and find the next hidden talent.

The question is how? Need to utilize our greatest resource maybe.

Disclaimer: I do go to TAC cup games.

Link to Moneyball review

Ok but you also put yourself in a position where you take stevens in the PSD and not Phil Reid.. plus TWO KIDS in the first 4 or 5 and not one....
Raso is a punt...so is Setanta.
We all want them to be 200 game players for the club... but would you put a thousand dollars down that either will be a 200 game player???

Karl being clearly better than a fourth round pick... ever thought about why he was taken that low???
Why didnt you use Fisher as an example??? At least his only problem is his kicking... which hopefully has been fixed by that op .

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I do not got to TAC games so from now on i shall not talk about drafting, about tanking about picking late blooming players, perhaps i shall not even pick my nose least I use the wrong method.

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

But ive seen you pick your nose dannyboy... so youre allowed to keep doing it.

look the point of seeing the kids is this... The first few are a mile ahead of everyone else. They have less faults , they have a better attitude.. they have leadership..
Then there are like 20 odd kids that look pretty good but have shortcomings... (need development)
THEN you can throw a blanket over the next 50... severe shortcomings.
One bloke i know has only like 12 players marked down as being ok this year in Victoria..

Its so much easier from the Herald Sun..
pick # 56 Johnathon Green. 193/76/.. Represented Country, took a few good marksin the carnival and impressed. Could mature into a CHF but needs to bulk up. Compared to Jonathon Brown by many in the Maralinga district due to his performances in the juniors.

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no one doubts this but you know Synbad others are just as pasisonate about the bluebaggers as you and hope that we can get lucky so the pian will go away

oh and I actually agree with Jarusa (hate to say it, he's a bloody Geek!!!! as opposed to Syband who is )

anyway I agree that in many ways the real worth of a side is in their second/ third rounders. Pick some gems here to compliment the superstars of the early picks and the side really begins to take shape.

Add a few lured stars from other clubs

mix with Denis's no nonsense

shit I'm feeling better already - so you lay off Synbad

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

If you read what I said you'd know I was talking about kids outside the TAC system. Fisher was drafted.....from the TAC?

Better go back and put into context again, because I doubt you read that either.

You can still find players outside the TAC system. Can't remember his name but Adelaide drafted a 'smokey' around about #60 a couple of years ago. Might be shit, but not everyone is scouted, going to draft camps or playing in the best development league.

If you have a player playing for Warnambool that no one knows about, you reckon he's hot, would you use a 1st round pick on him or a 4th round pick?

_________________
"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent." Qui-Gon Jinn 15-05-2005

"there’s more chance of me becoming the full forward for the [Western Bulldogs] than there is of any change in the Labor Party." Julia Gillard 18-05-2010

Geelong have assembled their team with the following picks:

Corey 8, Chapman 31, Ling 38, Enright 47, Hunt 44, Bartel 8, Kelly 17, Gardiner 23, S.Johnson 24, Playfair 41, McCarthy 69, D.Johnson 81

Just 2 from the top 10. All others from later on.