Mitch Clark was said to have the talent and skill to be the best player drafted in the 2005 draft if he worked hard enough. It was said at the time that we were after Kennedy for pick one if Murphy had signed with Brisbane. We overlooked one CHF for another with a better attitude and work ethic who may have shown more improvement than Clark in 2005.

I think we're underrating Kennedy.

I still find it amazing that a guy who gets named full back in the VFL state side couldn't get a game in a team that leaks 125 points every week

Livo was screwed over by Pagan and despite his injuries would still be capable of holding down the fullback position in this side.

the only comparison I draw with Aisake and Setanta is that the club appears to be patient with those two where Livo made one mistake and was sent to the pine and then back to the Bullants and I might be blind or just plain stupid but if someone can suggest there is more upside to two guys who are only learning how to kick the ball than there is to a bloke who was considered by most experts as the 4th best 18 year old in the country , I must have it all wrong

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If you allow the Government to change the Laws in an emergency
They will create an Emergency to change the Laws

I love Livo, he is a great bloke - but I reckon he will even tell you that both Aisake and Setanta are better kicks than Livo.

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

At the time of selection, Livo did have the reputation to go with his high pick.

Just goes to show in life there are no gurantees.

It wasn't so much the mistakes that Livo made, it was how he made them, regularly from day 1...or put it this way...it became his trademark. Overtime supporters had less pity for him, and became uncomfortable with him.

Maybe it's part Pagan, or previous coaches, and maybe even injury, but Livo looked unco, he lacked confidence, he got outmuscled and his disposal was very average in his last 3 years after injury.

I stuck up for Livo time after time; made mention of the fact that he was a CHF in the underage comp, and may have played out of position at FB, made the point that he looked OK as a leading forward, blamed injury...but at the end of the day...other than round 1 against the Roos in 2005 (and the Wizzer Cup that year), a couple of cameos against Neitz, Livo failed to impress!

The rest is history. He's gone. Next.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

Agee

It is not about number one picks but it is all about optimizing your chances. I don't understand the logic of some people, a player that was taken as a high draft pick does not automatically make him more talented than someone picked well below him. It just means he was 'deemed' to be by the recruiter who chose him. On the other hand, just because you can get worthy players lower down in the order, or even as rookies, does not mean you can afford to rely on it.

My take on recruiting is that you have to be as 'instinctive' as you can. You judge players at that age by their innate ability. You have to know what makes a good footballer and prepare to take a few risks rather than relying primarily on technicalities and stats sheets. I also think the more that you get hung up on a sides weaknesses, the less chance you have of making it healthy.

I have, largely, avoided this thread like the plague because of the 'stigma' attached but (despite what nytdog thinks) there appears to be a lot of good points made in it and I might have to catch up.

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Just because I'm offended, doesn't mean I'm wrong.

Sydnet Blue wrote



That doesn't mean that Livo was the obvious answer. Perception was that he was damn good as a 17 yo, and he was!

Have a look at Edwards at the Kangas. He kicked over 100 goals in the VFL, gets picked up again, but that doesn't mean he'll kick 100 or 50.

True, backmen are exposed a little by the goals kicked against them as that goals against are being used as the barometer.

If we are comparing Setanta and Livo in the same breath, I think that further devalues Livo and highlights his flaws, not the other way around.

Setanta wasn't born with the game and Livo was, yet many in the football public would consider Setanta as a better proposition (with the benefit of hindsight) than Livo. That's embarassing for Livo.

Setanta is taller, stronger, faster, more athletic, with a hell of a lot more upside than Livo when comparing physical attributes alone.

Livo put on the muscle to play against the gorillas, and that stopped him any chance of becoming a forward again, but he was still moved over easily by Lloyd, Lynch, Hall....that doesn't happen to Setanta...and he's maintained his speed...so what was wrong with Livo? It can't all be everyone else's fault, or due to injury alone...players get over more serious injuries to knees, necks, ankles, hibs and backs.

I know what you're saying SB re Livo's chances, but I don't think we can devalue Setanta to stick up for Livo....OK, you can, but I don't think that makes it a strong argument.

There's also the other argument as to why no other club was interested in taking the young Livo after he was delisted. I bet a lot of clubs would be lining up for Setanta and even Aisake.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

The whole discussion should not be about a players merit in hindsight it should be about whether a particular decision has a sound logical foundation at the time of its making. The decision to draft Livo made more sense than some. Logic says we should have drafted McDougall, which proves you can excuse human error sometimes...

All the same time, just because there are no guarantees does not amount to not putting means into place to try to increase the chances of a desirable outcome. I generally find the red herrings people put into place to try and avoid rocking the boat disturbing.

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Just because I'm offended, doesn't mean I'm wrong.

I say this consisetntly, it's about timeing and luck as well as football ability. Tell me Livo was never as good as that carrot, Bassett from Adelaide. When you have a team leaking down back like the Titanic there was always going to be casualties. It happened to be Livo...and a quite a few others. Stick him in a solid defensive unit on the the fourth best forward and there you have it.

M

Agree with you Pafloyul

After all, we're only human.

Woof Woof

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

...but did you read my edited coda, Bondi? That might disagree with you more.

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Just because I'm offended, doesn't mean I'm wrong.

BINGO!!!! And that's the whole point!

I've got a question for NYTDOG.

It's the end of round 21 and the Blues are on 4 wins. They have the chance to pick up the first pick in the draft (priority pick) and pick 3, because Richmond ends up last ( ), and we are second last. Pick 1 is touted by all recruiters as a gun player like Murphy.

The question is, do you (as head coach), select a team that will win the round 22 game and therefore miss out on pick 1, or do you play "the kids" and "experiment" them in different positions, to try and get pick 1?

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You can just smell that fresh Carlton arrogance coming back into the air

But we are too talented a side this year, so that scenario wont happen! Last year when it got to that stage, i wanted the PP... Or should i say Bryce Gibbs cos the PP was ruled out that year!

This year we are developing and playing good football, could win at least another 4 matches for the season i think... to think we would only win 1 more game for the season is laughable!

Dont you people remember, we could easily have another 3 wins on the board right now... it just proves the talent and development that is taking place at the club right now...

After some lean, ok, terrible seasons we are working our way out of the wilderness and THE DARK DAYS are over!!

Yes, we are still not winning enough games, but we have been outclassed y the top 2 teams and thats it! Geelong have showed what an awesome outfit they are, in years past we would have copped a 100pt flogging or more!

Like the Kangaroos, wo we are at least just as talented as, i'd say moreso and with our improved forward setup, we could have been in a similar position as to where they are right now...

Thats like saying what if we could get Chris Judd through the PSD?? It wont happen, we are a GOOD team now, good enough to beat the bulldogs who lets not forget can be formiddable on their day....

In the words of DP, "Dont piss down my back and tell me it's raining"..

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Corinthians 9:6- 8

Hey big Bond.

If you read the pages of stuff on this thread that Tdog has posted, you'll see that his answer is clear. If at round 21 (or even 18 for that matter) we are in a position to get that number 1 or 2 pick and a PP, then you would sport the most experimental team designed to loose.

However to advocate that type of strategy in round 8, 9, 10 is a loosers mentality.

Perhaps you should go back through some pages earlier in the thread to get a better understanding of his (and many others) full argument on this topic.

Exactly... I'm i the only one enjoying watching us play this year??

With a top 3 or 4 pick, 2nd round top 20 pick, and our whole batch of youngsters coming through, things are pretty becoming exciting at the Carlton Football Club!!

Just have a look at the improvement of some of the players over the past few years... Simpson, Waite (who may finally be starting to emerge), Walker, Bentick, and the 2 young guns Murphy and Gibbs. Among others ball winners Adam Bentick and Blackwell, The O'Hailpin brothers , Betts... etc..

A swag of young players including Kennedy, Anderson and Grigg and Benjamin who look as though they have the makings of good footballers. A decent Forward line which is now running coherently... which includes the likes of Coleman medallist Brendan Fevola, Jarrad Waite and Brad Fisher.. and a still very talented and handy Matthew Lappin bobbing up...(who i think will go around next year)...

Watch this space and look out for next season! Look what the hawks have shown this year... Yes, they still may be young, but even 1 season of pre season training, developing muscle strength and the talent they have, they are stamping themselves as the new kids on the block... 12 months ago they were still a long way away and no where near that...

We may not quite be at the exact same level of talent next year but we will be close... Finals could be a possibility, just like surprisingly Top 4 could be a possibility for the Hawks...

Talent alone, they are capable of that! Hopefully the development along the way sees us moving in that direction, one things for sure we are absolutely moving forward, thanks also to the new game plan and coaches we have in place....

I'm loving watching this team atm! Far more upside than an experienced competitive side on the slide... Finals should definetely be our aim for next year!

And we are past that mediocrity of last year etc...

Bring on the excitement!

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Corinthians 9:6- 8

Hey big Bearzo. I've read the other pages mate. Believe me, it's a loaded question. That's why I asked it I'm asking the question because of the following comments:





The question has nothing to do with losers mentality as you are implying. I actually want to know if in NYTDOG eyes he would "cheat/manipulate" to get the next Marc Murphy in the above scenario. Maybe you should go through the pages

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You can just smell that fresh Carlton arrogance coming back into the air

I've read those posts by Tdog and i suppose i took it less literally because i remembered him saying several times earlier that he would (in my words not his) stoop to those levels only late in the season.

Perhaps sub-conciously i've expressed my opinion more so than my observation of his. I suppose in a few hours time he'll wake up, read this and again tell us what he thinks!

A bit tough on Mathew Bate - he is a quality player. I also wouldn't classify Rosa as a 9/10.

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There is no footy god

JB, I'll try to summarise my argument so there's no confusion:

This thread began at Round 4. I don't advocate playing to lose (cause that's what tanking means) at Round 4 of a season. I wouldn't advocate it at Round 11 of a season. That to me is not only cheating the system, but is cheating yourself.

We have a more talented team than what some posters give us credit for. I have faith that with smart list management, recruiting and trading from this point onwards with the talent we currently have and the additional picks we'll receive organically we can be a force. Another pick would be great, but getting it by trying to lose from this early in the year isn't the way to go about it.

Everyone would like another early pick - shit I would LOVE it - but that's not the question here. The topic is whether we should play to lose to get that pick. And I would argue that losing to get that pick at this early stage of the season would be more harmful to the club than good. Losing the final 12 games of the season may have a significant impact on moral of the players and supporters, as well as impact sponsorship, membership, player development, finances, etc. Is that all worth an extra pick? I'm not so sure. We came close to losing our best backman (worth a first round pick) and our 2004 first round pick because of the losing.

I would argue that player development would be accelerated in a winning team, where players are played in their rightful positions and in a team that has a balance of experience and youth. Playing losing football requires a young team, no mid aged/experienced players and playing the guys out of position. How is that going to help development? Confidence is everything in football. Play a pick 50 in a winning team like WC and watch that player grow to be equal of a pick 10. Conversly, a pick 4 or 11 can turn out to be pretty average in a losing team.

The draft has an element of unpredictability, but in general earlier picks are better than later picks. Having said that, I don't think there is much difference in Pick 1 and Pick 2 or 3. I think if you look back over the history of the draft, there's some pretty compelling evidence.

And although high picks are generally better, there is no evidence to suggest you need only high draft picks to be a premiership team. With the right resources into recruiting, scouting and player development, any club can develop a long term winning team through a combination of high and low drafts picks. Other clubs (like WC and Adelaide) have managed to do that, so if we are the great club that we say we are, than we can do the same. Relying on early draft picks to magically turn the club around isn't the only answer. There are a heap of other factors that we need to get right.

If we are near the end of the season and are stuck on 4 wins, then I think it would do more benefit for the club than harm to put an inexperienced (unlikely to win) team on the park. I have said that throughout the entire thread. The difference here is, playing to lose from as early as round 4 in the season may be more harmful to the club than good. Throwing a season of AFL football for a pick is manipulating and cheating the system. Playing a young inexperienced team late in the season where there is no chance of making finals is common practice and desireable as it gives the youngsters more games and sees where they're at in their development which also helps in list management. It rests the older players to inable them to avoid injury and play on in the future (resting Fev when he had a groin injury a few years back comes to mind ). It also enables supporters to get a taste for the future and one or two loss doesn't destroy the club. If we were on 5-7 wins by Round 21 I would still like to see the club play more of the youngsters and give guys like Lappo and Kouta a rest so they can go on next year. To me that is not tanking, it is smart player and list management. If Hartlett has played only a couple of senior games by round 20 I'd be pissed and want to see him in the team if we're out of finals contention even if he wasn't a walk up for our best 22. To be honest, I'd like to see him in the team now.

There's a massive difference between playing to lose early/mid season and playing youngsters late in the year when we're out of finals contention.

if we win this week we will be two games out of the eight