To tank or not to tank???

AGRO · **Posted:** Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:11 pm

Mark J wrote:

AGRO wrote:

Plenty of jewels in the Rookie Draft. :roll:

Did you ever wonder why the AFL flower us right royally in 2002 and prevented us from participating in the first 2 rounds of the National Draft in 2002 adn 2003?

If the first 2 rounds of the National Draft are so irrelevant why didn't the AFL just give us extra picks in the first 2 rounds and stop us from selecting any players in Rounds 3, 4 and 5.

We've done ok out of Simpson,Fischer& Carrots haven't we?

As I posted somewhere else earlier our 2002 Draft would have been pretty special calling out:

- Goddard, Wells, Simpson and Fisher.

Mark J · **Posted:** Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:18 pm

AGRO wrote:

Mark J wrote:

AGRO wrote:

Plenty of jewels in the Rookie Draft. :roll:

Did you ever wonder why the AFL flower us right royally in 2002 and prevented us from participating in the first 2 rounds of the National Draft in 2002 adn 2003?

If the first 2 rounds of the National Draft are so irrelevant why didn't the AFL just give us extra picks in the first 2 rounds and stop us from selecting any players in Rounds 3, 4 and 5.

We've done ok out of Simpson,Fischer& Carrots haven't we?

As I posted somewhere else earlier our 2002 Draft would have been pretty special calling out:

- Goddard, Wells, Simpson and Fisher.

Agreed, but i'd take Murphy and Gibbs now,at least they're still playing(touchwood)

AGRO · **Posted:** Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:21 pm

Mark J wrote:

Agreed, but i'd take Murphy and Gibbs now,at least they're still playing(touchwood)

And just clarifying that Murphy and Gibbs are very high first round draft picks. :wink:

nytdog · **Posted:** Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:57 pm

No one is denying that it would be great to have an extra pick at the top of the draft. No one is arguing that higher picks generally turn out better than lower picks. What people are arguing is that one additional pick at the top will make @#$%&! all difference to whether we win a premiership or not. All the other stuff along the way will make the difference. Name me one club that has got an extra high pick which ensured they won a premiership. Let's say we get the extra pick this year, and then miss out on a higher pick next year because we finish 6th instead of 12th. Who knows. If we got Wells and Goddard, there's no chance we would have go Gibbs. So things work out the way they work out. All you can do is keep winning and do the best with the things you can control - like list management.

Someone (an agry young man I think) mentioned Hawthorn earlier. Hawthorn not only had a few bad years, but have also traded away overrated players like Thompson and Hay to get additional picks. That's not tanking, that's smart list management. We let Campo go a few years ago for nothing - now that was smart. You would think he was worth at least a third round pick.

I'm really looking forward to when we get our 5th win of the year and put this pathetic thread to rest.

GAVROMAN · **Joined:** Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:29 pm **Posts:** 391

nytdog wrote:

I'm really looking forward to when we get our 5th win of the year and put this pathetic thread to rest.

To a degree...SO AM I!!!

I want to start going to the footy again without feeling empty after a win.

AGRO · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:17 am

Hopefully our over rated captain will have such a great second half of the season we will smartly be able to trade him for a first rounder.

AGRO · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:21 am

Smarmy, supercillious, arrogant are 3 words that appear in the Macquarie Dictionary.

Bearzo · **Joined:** Sun Mar 11, 2007 8:56 pm **Posts:** 230

AGRO wrote:

Judd had dodgy shoulders and St. Kilda & Hawthorn did not want to take a the risk.

Kerr told all interstate clubs not to bother picking him as he would not come, so interstate clubs did not take the risk.

Didak and Pendlebury are top 5 picks so not sure why they are on the list.

What i'm saying is that we will probably get pick 3 to 5 as our first pick so we can grab hot players like Judd, Didak, Penelbury.

Then again, we may get no-one like them and get another Livvo. Its a bloody lottery is many respects.

Bearzo · **Joined:** Sun Mar 11, 2007 8:56 pm **Posts:** 230

nytdog wrote:

No one is denying that it would be great to have an extra pick at the top of the draft. No one is arguing that higher picks generally turn out better than lower picks. What people are arguing is that one additional pick at the top will make flower all difference to whether we win a premiership or not. All the other stuff along the way will make the difference. Name me one club that has got an extra high pick which ensured they won a premiership. Let's say we get the extra pick this year, and then miss out on a higher pick next year because we finish 6th instead of 12th. Who knows. If we got Wells and Goddard, there's no chance we would have go Gibbs. So things work out the way they work out. All you can do is keep winning and do the best with the things you can control - like list management.

Someone (an agry young man I think) mentioned Hawthorn earlier. Hawthorn not only had a few bad years, but have also traded away overrated players like Thompson and Hay to get additional picks. That's not tanking, that's smart list management. We let Campo go a few years ago for nothing - now that was smart. You would think he was worth at least a third round pick.

I'm really looking forward to when we get our 5th win of the year and put this pathetic thread to rest.

I think that this post sums it up the best

dannyboy · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:18 am

to tank is to play your weakest list and coach so that weak list loses.

So we want Teague, McLaren (when fit) etc in the side. We do not wish to promote Aisake or Jako for that matter. We need to play Gibbs at fullback and Tex in the back pocket (Carrots in the other back pocket) play Lance at CHB changing to CHF, Look for Fev at all opportunity (heck at no opportunity too).

anything else?

Clayman · **Joined:** Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:02 am **Posts:** 1770

Bearzo wrote:

Its a bloody lottery is many respects.

It is not a lottery!!! We need more effort and focus in recruiting. We need the best people all over the country finding talent. Increase the budget in that area Swanny. The draft is not a game of Keno.

If I was a recruiter and that was my job I would be great at it and prove it wasn't a lottery. What a great job that would be.....watching football for a living. I have a bit to do with local football and watch a lot of it up in te Ovens and Murray region and I can spot the kids who will play AFL.

An example of one kid I know, who is 15 years old who acts like an adult, can kick both feet with precision, is far better than the rest of his team, has ambition, wants to keep is body in great shape and not smoke, drink, take drugs etc and is quick, loves to run into space and create opportunites is enough for me.

If any Carlton recruiter wants his name I am prepared to give it to you. Did I also mention he kicked 20 odd goals in one game of football last year as a midfielder?

He is currently up in Wollongong representing the Riverina. Hope we have some scouts there as there will be a few future AFL players in that side.

AGRO · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:15 am

Clayman wrote:

It is not a lottery!!! We need more effort and focus in recruiting. We need the best people all over the country finding talent. Increase the budget in that area Swanny. The draft is not a game of Keno.

Absolutely the draft is no longer a lottery. However the US intelligencia keep raising the irrelavancies of "Luke Livingstone at Pick 4" and Kade Simpson at Pick 45 and Brad Fisher at pick 75 and Bret Thornton in the Rookie Draft as reasons why we should eschew lower draft picks, and rely on a miraculous vein of winning form to turn into to winning culture that will turn shit into strawberry jam. :roll:

The draft these days is very accurate and certainly the Top 10 players are almost always universally acknowledged. Why some people say that 1 pick in the top 10 is just as good as having 2 picks beggars all belief and basic commonsense.

As for Luke Livingstone - he was unfortunately taken as the next best tall player in the draft - he was and never was rated the 4th best player in the 2000 Draft - you can blame David Parkin and our Match Committee for that one.

moshe25 · **Joined:** Wed May 11, 2005 1:23 am **Posts:** 11671

Bearzo wrote:

I think its completely undeniable and obvious that Pick 1 is "generally" gonna provide a player that will play more ALF games than pick 30 or 60 (for example) so the graph from Jarusa doesn't mean too much to me (i applaud Jarusa for dedicating his time to it).

I really believe that luck has so much to do with which player will be better for their respective clubs when you try and assess the quality of players you get from picks 1 to 5.

I read this debate and cant get passed the fact that Chris Judd (1 brownlow and more to come) was not a pick 1 or 2 and Adam Goodes (2 brownlows) was not even in the top 40.

And just for tyhe sake of it, condier these guys:

- Nick Dal Santo (13)
- Simon Black (31)
- Didak (3)
- Pendelbury (5)
- Shane Crawford (13)
- Brett Kirk (Rookie)
- Ryan O'Keefe (56)
- Daniel Kerr (18)

And the list can go on and on forever to support what i'm arguing. At the end of the day its picks 1-5 are a almost a lottery and every one of those top 5 guys has the chance to be as good as each other.

Lets try and focus on the club being moving forward sooner by smart recruiting, winning games, gathering more members and supporters (by winning games), getting more financial investment (by winning games).

We'll more than likely get pick 5 and he will be a champion of the AFL just like picks 1-4.

We've missed the boat to get a PP this year. Lets resume this tank debate IF we are at round 17 with 3 wins. Until then, lets play to win.

Bearzo, you should put $1,000 on the 100-1 shot at Flemington next week. One of those has won before, so it's a great bet!!!!

camel · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:02 am

Bearzo wrote:

AGRO wrote:

Judd had dodgy shoulders and St. Kilda & Hawthorn did not want to take a the risk.

Kerr told all interstate clubs not to bother picking him as he would not come, so interstate clubs did not take the risk.

Didak and Pendlebury are top 5 picks so not sure why they are on the list.

What i'm saying is that we will probably get pick 3 to 5 as our first pick so we can grab hot players like Judd, Didak, Penelbury.

Then again, we may get no-one like them and get another Livvo. Its a bloody lottery is many respects.

I think it's probably pretty safe to assume that those running the footy department now (perhaps with the exception of Sticks) are clued up enough to ensure that mistakes like Livo don't happen again.

Sydney Blue · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:26 am

camelboy wrote:

Bearzo wrote:

AGRO wrote:

Judd had dodgy shoulders and St. Kilda & Hawthorn did not want to take a the risk.

Kerr told all interstate clubs not to bother picking him as he would not come, so interstate clubs did not take the risk.

Didak and Pendlebury are top 5 picks so not sure why they are on the list.

What i'm saying is that we will probably get pick 3 to 5 as our first pick so we can grab hot players like Judd, Didak, Penelbury.

Then again, we may get no-one like them and get another Livvo. Its a bloody lottery is many respects.

I think it's probably pretty safe to assume that those running the footy department now (perhaps with the exception of Sticks) are clued up enough to ensure that mistakes like Livo don't happen again.

It is your opinion that Livo was a mistake I would argue he wasn't given the opportunties that others have been afforded and his present form in the VFL would indicate that.

I still think if we had put him on and left him on he would be a quality fullback by now and thats something that is lacking in the team and I cant ever recall Livo having a bag kicked on him . We seem prepared to persist with Irish blokes that haven't played the game and give them plenty of chances but it your pick 4 look out .

Livo is twice the full back that Sentanta is/was

SurreyBlue · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 8:32 am **Posts:** 10471

Clayman wrote:

It is not a lottery!!! We need more effort and focus in recruiting. We need the best people all over the country finding talent. Increase the budget in that area Swanny. The draft is not a game of Keno.

If I was a recruiter and that was my job I would be great at it and prove it wasn't a lottery. What a great job that would be.....watching football for a living. I have a bit to do with local football and watch a lot of it up in te Ovens and Murray region and I can spot the kids who will play AFL.

An example of one kid I know, who is 15 years old who acts like an adult, can kick both feet with precision, is far better than the rest of his team, has ambition, wants to keep is body in great shape and not smoke, drink, take drugs etc and is quick, loves to run into space and create opportunites is enough for me.

If any Carlton recruiter wants his name I am prepared to give it to you. Did I also mention he kicked 20 odd goals in one game of football last year as a midfielder?

He is currently up in Wollongong representing the Riverina. Hope we have some scouts there as there will be a few future AFL players in that side.

Couldn't agree more and you'll find the teams that are doing well now are the one's that have a big recruiting budget and left no stone unturned. We have been shithouse here, unfortunately it seems Collingwood and others like Hawthorn haven't. It's not about just no.1 picks people :roll:

(although it makes life easy for clubs :oops:

) it's about identifying talent better and putting the kids throught the correct "process" within the club in the end to get most of them. StKilda is a good example of what I am talking about the "process" of how "not" to do it.

AGRO · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:47 am

Sydney Blue wrote:

It is your opinion that Livo was a mistake I would argue he wasn't given the opportunties that others have been afforded and his present form in the VFL would indicate that.

I still think if we had put him on and left him on he would be a quality fullback by now and thats something that is lacking in the team and I cant ever recall Livo having a bag kicked on him . We seem prepared to persist with Irish blokes that haven't played the game and give them plenty of chances but it your pick 4 look out .

Livo is twice the full back that Sentanta is/was

Unfortunately Luke Livingstone was the victim of a whole bag of circumstances not of his own making.

- He was drafted at Pick 4 in a draft as the next best tall - when most recruiters reckoned he was barely a top 20 pick.

- He sustained a life threatening illness in his first year that necessitated him having very serious surgery in order to save his life.

- He was thrown into the deep end at Full Back and CHB into some of the weakest Carlton Sides ever to grace the football field - when essentially he was recruited to Carlton as a marking forward - on the back of his very good form in that position during the Australian Under 18 Championships.

- He was always cruelled with injury at the most in opportune times just when he looked like he was going to establish himself as a member of the side.

In the end he was cut from the list after 7 seasons - as a First Round Draft Pick that never made it.

He should have been part of our 24/25 year old core group of players carrying us forward - but he is not.

Luke is a quality young man, having met him on a number of occassions but unfortunately was met with a set of circumstances which cruelled his ambition and opportunity.

The fact that he is playing good football at Port Melbourne is a credit too him - in the old days with lists of 48 he may have been afforded further opportunity at Carlton or perhaps have been picked up by another side - but that is not the case these days.

To compare him to Setanta or Aisake and diss those 2 players is hardly fair IMHO. For every reason I have given for Luke's unfortunate career at Carlton I can give 10 reasons why Setanta and Aisake O'hAilpin should be applauded for their attempts at playing AFL - and for Carlton's guts in perservering with them.

In fact Carlton are hardly trailblazers in the Irish experiment:

- Sean Wight
- Jim Stynes
- Tadgh Kennelly

Carlton were forced to go to these lengths to find players due to the reaming it was subjected to by the AFL.

In all honesty I think you can see the upside that Setanta and Aisake offer compared to Luke regardless of the opportunities provided.

Siegfried · **Joined:** Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:30 pm **Posts:** 2862

Clayman wrote:

If any Carlton recruiter wants his name I am prepared to give it to you. Did I also mention he kicked 20 odd goals in one game of football last year as a midfielder?

He is currently up in Wollongong representing the Riverina. Hope we have some scouts there as there will be a few future AFL players in that side.

Send Cazz a PM Clayman.

nytdog · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:45 am

AGRO wrote:

Clayman wrote:

It is not a lottery!!! We need more effort and focus in recruiting. We need the best people all over the country finding talent. Increase the budget in that area Swanny. The draft is not a game of Keno.

Absolutely the draft is no longer a lottery. However the US intelligencia keep raising the irrelavancies of "Luke Livingstone at Pick 4" and Kade Simpson at Pick 45 and Brad Fisher at pick 75 and Bret Thornton in the Rookie Draft as reasons why we should eschew lower draft picks, and rely on a miraculous vein of winning form to turn into to winning culture that will turn shit into strawberry jam. :roll:

The draft these days is very accurate and certainly the Top 10 players are almost always universally acknowledged. Why some people say that 1 pick in the top 10 is just as good as having 2 picks beggars all belief and basic commonsense.

As for Luke Livingstone - he was unfortunately taken as the next best tall player in the draft - he was and never was rated the 4th best player in the 2000 Draft - you can blame David Parkin and our Match Committee for that one.

Let me make it really simple for you, so you may finally understand the opposing view. Because you clearly still don't get it. We would all love more top 10 picks. But some of us have integrity. And some of us don't believe it is worth stooping as low as throwing games to get additional early picks. Is that straight forward enough?

There's more than one way to skin a cat. If you believe that Carlton have no hope of being successful other than to tank to get a second early pick, then you have no faith in your own club. And you really aren't much of a supporter. I believe Carlton are developing a long term winning team with or without a second early pick. If you want that pick so bad, why don't try using that brain of yours and come up some trade options. Cause that's how other teams that haven't needed to tank get early picks.

Elwood Blues1 · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 9:10 am **Posts:** 4827

AGRO wrote:

Sydney Blue wrote:

It is your opinion that Livo was a mistake I would argue he wasn't given the opportunties that others have been afforded and his present form in the VFL would indicate that.

I still think if we had put him on and left him on he would be a quality fullback by now and thats something that is lacking in the team and I cant ever recall Livo having a bag kicked on him . We seem prepared to persist with Irish blokes that haven't played the game and give them plenty of chances but it your pick 4 look out .

Livo is twice the full back that Sentanta is/was

Unfortunately Luke Livingstone was the victim of a whole bag of circumstances not of his own making.

- He was drafted at Pick 4 in a draft as the next best tall - when most recruiters reckoned he was barely a top 20 pick.

- He sustained a life threatening illness in his first year that necessitated him having very serious surgery in order to save his life.

- He was thrown into the deep end at Full Back and CHB into some of the weakest Carlton Sides ever to grace the football field - when essentially he was recruited to Carlton as a marking forward - on the back of his very good form in that position during the Australian Under 18 Championships.

- He was always cruelled with injury at the most in opportune times just when he looked like he was going to establish himself as a member of the side.

In the end he was cut from the list after 7 seasons - as a First Round Draft Pick that never made it.

He should have been part of our 24/25 year old core group of players carrying us forward - but he is not.

Luke is a quality young man, having met him on a number of occassions but unfortunately was met with a set of circumstances which cruelled his ambition and opportunity.

The fact that he is playing good football at Port Melbourne is a credit too him - in the old days with lists of 48 he may have been afforded further opportunity at Carlton or perhaps have been picked up by another side - but that is not the case these days.

To compare him to Setanta or Aisake and diss those 2 players is hardly fair IMHO. For every reason I have given for Luke's unfortunate career at Carlton I can give 10 reasons why Setanta and Aisake O'hAilpin should be applauded for their attempts at playing AFL - and for Carlton's guts in perservering with them.

In fact Carlton are hardly trailblazers in the Irish experiment:

- Sean Wight
- Jim Stynes
- Tadgh Kennelly

Carlton were forced to go to these lengths to find players due to the reaming it was subjected to by the AFL.

In all honesty I think you can see the upside that Setanta and Aisake offer compared to Luke regardless of the opportunities provided.

Fair summary from Agro and I dont have much more to add except to say that Luke tested very well at the draft camp and was also considered a mature young bloke with leadership potential.
He was the obvious choice at NO 4 after the gems in Reiwoldt, Kosi and Didak had been taken and most of the media outlets had us taking him at pick 4. I have put the boots into the recruiting dept over the years but I couldnt fault them on this selection as Livo ticked all the boxes...

To tank or not to tank???

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