I assume that it is the mean of the number of games per draft pick (or something) - looking at the chart it is going up and down like a yo-yo - not in steady decline as the line indicates

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Between our dreams and actions lies this world

Ever heard of a trend line?

Least squares?

Addition, subtraction?

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all i have to say to this debate is

with pick #3 of the 2001 National Draft, West Coast Eagles will take Chris Judd

we will get pick 2 or 3 this year

a few sides of have surprised me (north and bombers) so we will finish either second last or third last despite how many games we win and i think we will win more than 4 so the talk of PP is a waste of time

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Got to love the stare Down by Setanta on Llyod

i think the PP talk is done with.
we will win atleast 2 more in the next 5 games.

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dane's trolling again

Jars provide the same analysis without the original club criteria.

No, you didn't say please.

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We have Melbourne x2, Brisbane (fine chance at revenge), Filth/Scum(just cause we always seem to raise our games for them) which are def winnable. Freo isn't exactly setting the world alight and Port are there for taking so maybe Denis will get near his 10 wins afterall. No PP this year anyway

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Setanta Ó hAilpín 64 AFL Games 45 Goals

Up the Rebels All-Ireland Hurling Champions 2004/2005

Why did you stop at 10.???. why not win 11???.. make the finals and storm to the gf where we spit out WC...and win our 17th???

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Due to recent budget cuts and the rising cost of electricity, gas, and oil....... the Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off. We apologize for the inconvenience.

So thats your logic?
4 5 and 6... is better than 1 AND 3...???

You dont have any fingernails left today because ou did something weird to them thinking it was a great idea at the time....

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Due to recent budget cuts and the rising cost of electricity, gas, and oil....... the Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Analysing the draft over a period of time is pointless, it changes every year because every year there are different kids in it. If we're talking about how much better pick 3 is to pick 5, then it depends who WH rates as the top 5 players and how much difference there is between them. In 2000 there was a massive difference between the top 3 and the rest, we had pick 4 - shame about that. Last year Brisbane played North towards the end of the year, the winner would take pick 4 the loser pick 3, seemingly a difficult game when many thought there was a standout 3 kids in Gibbs, Gumblton, and Hansen; but who knows? maybe Brisbane rated the draft Luenberger, Selwood, Thorp and they ended up with their first choice.

Maybe WH will be under instructions to use one of his first 2 picks on a ruckman, given there are so many available in this draft it's highly likely that the one we take at pick 4 could have been taken at pick 22. But by the same token, after all is said and done, maybe someone leaps from the pack and becomes a standout no.1 and picks 2 onwards are average in comparison, if that happens it has nothing to do with whether pick 2 has historically been any good.

Having more picks early is of course better because the recruiter can choose the ones they like, but the difference between the pick number may not be as large as it seems and recruiters can stuff up even with the right picks. Collingwood has been lauded for their picks of late, but in 2004 they traded out of pick 7 to get pick 10 and Chad Morrison believing the draft tapered off after the top 6. Pick 7 ended up being Jordan Lewis while they were stuck with Chris Egan and 2 years of Chad Morrison.

Historically clubs with strong lists have benefitted from getting a number of starting 22 players from the one draft or over a 2 year period. Geelong did it in 2001 with Bartel, Ablett, Kelly, Steve Johnson and David Johnson - they also rookied Carrazo and Malony. The Saints did it over 2 years getting Reiwoldt, Kosi, Ball, Clarke, Dal Santo, McGuire and Montagna - In 2 drafts worth of picks only Josh Houlihan, Daniel Wulf and Mark Gale are not in their best 22, poor drafting, trading and injuries since then has crueled them, but they were set up magnificently from those 2 drafts.

They aren't all early picks, they were just the right ones and developed well when they go to the club. Richmond had 5 picks inside 20 in 2004, at this stage it looks like 3 are going to be players, 1-2 being of any quality.

I can understand the pro-tankers given the priority system now makes it extremely hard to get 2 early picks and we're teetering on eligibility, but I'd wait and see what players are on offer before I start forming opinions on what is better for the club.

Ussually as good as is not BETTER THAN Synbad.

No fingernails due to the stress of watching a game that I was starting to think would slip away AGAIN!

AND

I dont think personal attacks is approriate.

Good to see that you threw the punches when I was away from TC...keep up the work champ.

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They coud'nt.....could they?

Now thats a post.

Not to mention the $1million smackeroos for winning both the pre-season and season proper Cups.

Synners, you may be on to something here.

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“It is a state of mind, a system of belief, a way of seeing the world, a deep faith that, because you are Carlton, you belong to something great.” - Mike Fitzpatrick articulating what Out of the Blue means.

What the graph shows is that the draft works (and those that use it know what they are doing) in that on average in terms of games played the players go from best to worst.

Nothing more nothing less.

Calling things pointless is pretty pointless though.

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And the cornerstones of our list now from the class of 2000/2001 are??

- Luke Livingstone
- Trent Sporn
- Simon Wiggins
- Sean O'Keefe
- Callan Beasy
- Justin Davies
- Jarrad Waite
- Sam Cranage

Out of those 8 only 2 remain - I would doubt that any amount of winning culture would have saved the rest of the 6.

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

stop talking commensence

this thread is for ranting and raving





good work mate, couldnt agree more

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Got to love the stare Down by Setanta on Llyod

Jars, please provide the same information regardless of the same team criteria. It may even things up a but because higher picks are less likely to change clubs. Also, it may be worth taking out the bottom and top 5 percent in each category cause to get a real mean you need to adjust for the annomolies. In fact, if you don't mind sending me the raw data, I'd love to take a look.

Lets get one thing straight...I LOVE Carlton just as much as anyone else in here.

For the good of the club, i am still hoping we get the PP. You can all say what you like but i've had enough over the last 5 years. We are close to finally rising again. Picks 1 & 3 will make sure we get there.

If we lose to Port this week, we will get the PP. Just wait and see.

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Walk on, Walk on,
With hope, in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone,
YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE!!!

08/02/1981 - GATE 7...Our brothers will never be forgotten!!!

perfect example why we should tank for draft picks.

Thanks for saying please.

This graph was done about 2-3 years ago so it is getting a bit old (it has been brought up in about a million tanking threads on TC and TBV. Took a long time to collate the data. I might give it a go again in the near future both with and without original club.

I don't really buy the top picks do not get traded as much argument. I reckon it would be the opposite (without any facts to back me up at this stage).

You just look at the number one picks. five out of the roughly 21 number one picks have been traded to other clubs.

John Hutton
Darren Gaspar
Jeff White
Michael Gardiner
Des Headland

Gaspar played 207 games for Richmond, White has played 180 odd for Melb so far and Headland looks like he will go on to play 200+ for Freo. So just there the average for number one would go up.

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