Try this on for size.... Proof that early draft picks guarantee squat. It's all the other stuff that is much more important. WC, Sydney and Adelaide have all done extremely well without having to rely on 8 top 10 draft picks.

Pick - Carlton - WCE - Sydney - Adelaide
1-5: 4 - 2 - 2 - 0
6-10: 2 - 1 - 2 - 2
11-15: 2 - 3 - 1 - 2
16-20: 3 - 4 - 2 - 5
21-25: 2 - 4 - 1 - 2
26-30: 1 - 6 - 3 - 1
31-35: 1 - 1 - 2 - 3
36-40: 3 - 3 - 1 - 2
41-45: 3 - 2 - 1 - 0
46-50: 1 - 1 - 1 - 2
51-60: 1 - 3 - 6 - 3
61-70: 1 - 0 - 2 - 2
71+: 3 - 1 - 1 - 2
Rookie/PSD: 7 - 6 - 9 - 14
FS/Zone: 4 - 1 - 5 - 1
Total: 38 - 38 - 39 - 41

Assuming that FS picks and zone picks are as good as a first round to third round pick, we have a very favourable list as compared with three of the top sides in the league. Now it's all about what we do with the talent. Of course we are 3-4 years off in terms of development and age, but with the talent that we have, we should be aiming to win as many games as possible to develop the youngsters, not lose to get more picks. That won't help anyones development.

Draft picks in isolation proves nothing. Maybe if you added in an average number of games in brackets after the number of draft picks I'd be interested, but when 3 out of 4 of the top 1-5 picks have been drafted in the past two drafts, and all have played under 20 games, that's a more telling stat then at what pick they were drafted.

That argument completely ignores the fact that most of our experience is in the later picks and most of our youth is in the earlier picks. Quite different from the other clubs you listed.

Draft picks in isolation proves nothing. Maybe if you added in an average number of games in brackets after the number of draft picks I'd be interested, but when 3 out of 4 of the top 1-5 picks have been drafted in the past two drafts, and all have played under 20 games, that's a more telling stat then at what pick they were drafted.

What I am saying is that we have the talent to be a force in 3-5 years time, not now.

If you say success cant be guaranteed by accumulating early draft picks on our list - where is your guarantee that the current list we have will be a force in 3-5 years time.

Mate, there are no guarantees in life,

No sorry mate, YOU have SAID we will be a success in 3 to 5 years time - you are the one making guarantees.

Please give me the statistical analysis supporting your contention.

You refute one argument saying high draft picks are not a guarantee of success - yet you will accept the fact that this list will be successful in 3 to 5 years time - do you have a crystal ball?

I don't get it, AGRO are you pro or anti tanking

Before the United States entered World War II, Winston Churchill was struggling against all the odds to keep England from being invaded.

He was always supremely confident that something cataclysmic would occur that would precipitate the United States entering the war.

Pearl Harbour was that event - and on being asked why he was so confident that America would enter the war - he answered "because I study history".

Your confident predictions of success in 3 year because our current list will develop along the lines of West Coast and Sydney - has no basis in fact.

Unless you have the vision and foresight of Winston Churchill (unlikely) I am not going to accept the view that our success is guaranteed, just because our list is going to have 3 more years experience - and suddenly have a winning culture.

And please dont lecture me about childish personal attacks - you started it - you invaded Poland.

I dont care where our losses come from...i just want 11 losses from the last 13 games with our youngsters showing us something.

It obviously is a shit position to be in but i feel this is what our club needs. YES, i go to our games every week and its frustrating but i want whats best for our club. You may agree or disagree, only time will tell.