Looking at the Carlton list and progress made compared to Hawthorn's list and the progress they're made, I say we are 2 years away from where Hawthorn are at. So I think it will be 2 years before we make finals.

I think in 2007 we will and should finish about 14th and hopefully we win 4 or less games, therefore gaining us selections 1 (priority pick) and 4 (1st pick) in this years draft. Next year in 2008 we should finish between 9th - 12th like Hawthorn in 2006. Then in 2009 I think we will have a list as good as Hawthorn's and we will be ready for finals action.

Below I have compared Hawthorn's 2007 list with that of Carlton's 2007 list. I have gone through both teams list and listed the selection range that players at both clubs were drafted at by their original clubs, and the number of players taken in those selection range. For example Matthew Lappin was originally recruited by St.kilda at selection 40. So therefore he is listed at selection 36-40 on the table below for Carlton.

*NOTE: I didn't include father/sons or picks after selection 40.

Carlton:

selection 01-03 = 3
selection 04-06 = 1
selection 07-10 = 1
selection 11-13 = 1
selection 14-16 = 1
selection 17-20 = 3
selection 21-25 = 2
selection 26-30 = 1
selection 31-35 = 1
selection 36-40 = 3

Hawthorn:

selection 01-03 = 4
selection 04-06 = 4
selection 07-10 = 1
selection 11-13 = 1
selection 14-16 = 3
selection 17-20 = 1
selection 21-25 = 3
selection 26-30 = 2
selection 31-35 = 3
selection 36-40 = 2

So by looking at the table above you can see why Hawthorn are 2 years ahead of Carlton in their development, due to their higher number of early draft selections in comparison to Carlton. This is why Carlton need a priority selection at number 1 this year and then another pick at about selection 4.

Looking at the table above you will see that Hawthorn have 8 players taken in the first 6 selections compared to Carlton only 4.
Hawthorn also have 5 players taken between selection 21-30 compared to Carlton only 3.

Hawthorn have a higher number of draft selections compared to Carlton for 2 reasons:

* Carlton losing early draft picks in 2002 and 2003.
* Hawthorn being prepared to trade players for early draft picks E.g Hay & Thompson.

In closing, as much as it hurts me, I hope we win 4 or less games in 2007, so that we get more early draft picks. This will help build a better list for our future.

yeah good points..

they have birchall, franklin , campbell brown, lewis, hodge & ladson.

birchall - pick 14
franklin - pick 5
brown - pick 32
lewis - pick 7
hodge - pick 1
ladson - pick 16...
bateman - pick 48

hawks can also thank croad, guerra, crawford & mitchell.

....ellis & dowler not relevant in 2007 thus far.

roughhead at pick 2 looks like a flop

luke brennan at pick 8 was a flop

higher picks not really the answer just lessens the possibility of drafting a flop.

we need to trade this year...we need big bodies and class.

Roughead a flop????
Yes youre quite right.... drafting is a mix between early picks and late picks.. but hey Hawks have done it well havent they??... picked well on both sides.. gave themselves EVERY OPPORTUINITY to draft a premiership side in...
picks from trading OVER THE HILL players... bringing in youth and effervescence... Done nicely.... when we were trying to win 10 meaningless games of footy for a return of Russell.. they picked up Roughead and Franklin...
When we were signing up Lance.. they were getting picks for Thompson.. Hay and Rawlings...

Brilliant !!!.. absolutely brilliant.. they were brave enough to do what was required regardless of the short term pain!!!

Like you saud they still have Ellis Dowler Muston and whoever they took early last year.

Chocca block full of youthful talent and even though nothing is guaranteed .. they have given themselves.., EVERY OPPORTUNITY to TRUE GLORY.

Now parallel what they have dont to North of Richmond of Essendon*...

And tell me where youd rather be...

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yes they have given themselves every opportunity.

admire sydney for winning a flag without high picks
same with west coast
port adelaide are cruising this year without high picks

i guess we will soon find out wether we will be in the same group as the tigers, demons, saints, bulldogs, fremantle & hawthorn..that have done SFA with their high picks.

i guess hawthorn is on the road of glory after beating Essendon*.. i guess carlton is on the same path to glory as well..

Judd was a high pick.
Sydney have a difference in their salary cap.. how do you think they got Barry Hall??

Port??? well they got their premiership and build a foundation by pinching bloes like Wanganeen for nothing but youre not serious if you think theyre going to match what Hawthorn have going forward do you???

Well youre the guy who said were [REDACTED] without smorgon though.. so we have a point of reference when it comes to your understanding of things...

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Swans have had a few high picks. Grant, Rocca, Fitzgerald and fosdike for example.

expect nothing less than nonsensicles from yourself.

hawthorn have done nothing...absolutely nothing..either have the tigers, either have the saints either have the bulldogs

bulldogs best young players are cross, gilbee & giansiracussa are picks 56, 43 & 32 respectively.

not sure how you can admire these losers...

as for smorgon, he was a carlton person..you wanted some unknowns in his place no matter who it was...thank goodness elliot and sticks stepped up to the plate.

statistics telll us one out of every one hundred people gets VD from having sex.. therefore dont have sex.........

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Look when you want to develop townhouses.. you draw up plans submit those to council... etc... you havent done anything..but you have planned...
thats all you can do..

you havent had a shit yet.. but youre planning to at some point....

so what???

i dont have to see the shit to know youre going to have one...unless something drastic happens............

Hawthorn might not win a premiership.. there are no guarantees.. but they have done EVERTHING they possiboly can to put themselves in a position to win one...
and you talk about nonsense???

Smorgon and Smorgonland is the nonsense you believed...

Cos some people are simpletons.... they only look at the short term obvious stuff... other people can look further ahead.,...

Not all people are the same winnie....

You look at the obvious ...

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I'm fine with 2 years.......................but that's doesn't mean i have to put up with 2 more years of crap performances & 39+point beatings when we are CLEARLY a better than that.

Inexcusable.

Development stage is one thing,......................but i don't even think we're in a development stage sadly.

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"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit"
- Aristotle

synbad, you admire clubs that have done jack sheit.
yes the youth policy is brilliant....but i want to win flags...
development of this team will stop in 2008.

no excuses in 2009.

by then we will have a new coach and our "kids" will have 50-70 games under their belt.

2 years sounds about right. Particularly if we gain access to another 'real' priority pick. Otherwise it might take another year or 2.

CLEARLY they're not better than that.

This topic confirms my thoughts about wanting the Blues to win 4 games or less this season.

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Walk on, Walk on,
With hope, in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone,
YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE!!!

08/02/1981 - GATE 7...Our brothers will never be forgotten!!!

I tend to agree that Carlton are on the same path as Hawthorn, and are probably a couple of years behind. Blooding the youngsters is the way to go, and I can see our two clubs having many years of tough contests ahead. Definitely looking forward to that.

However, I'd just like to make a point in regards to high draft picks and the arguable success that it brings. Yes, guys like Hodge, Lewis and Franklin are stars and, as we saw yesterday, will win us games.

But Hawthorn supporters will tell you that our improvement this year (and towards the end of last year) has come from players such as Gilham, Sewell, McGlynn, Young and Campbell, all of whom have been promoted from the rookie list, and each add crucial aspects to our game. All of these guys have had to work their respective butts off to be promoted (as opposed to the armchair ride that top draft picks often tend to receive), and quite possibly appreciate the chances that they are given to a greater degree.

So while it is all well and good (and valid) to look at the number of high draft picks at a club, one cannot discount the guys who have forged their way in the less traditional manner. Seeing a guy like Ross Young running around is encouraging. If the Blues can combine guys like that, make the most of the Bullants alliance (the way the Hawks have done with Box Hill - Mitchell, Taylor, Sewell, McGlynn, Young), and get as much experience into the likes of Gibbs, Murphy, Kennedy etc, then I'd say you're well on the way.

NO............................sorry & no offense but i damn right REFUSE to believe that this list ISN'T capable of better performances that we have been giving.

_________________
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit"
- Aristotle

That all sounds great but at Carlton we don't have the structures or systems in place to develop and nurture youngsters unless you are a marc murphy or bryce gibbs. Recruits that have been taken at high picks have struggled for this reason. Why do you think Jordon Russell wanted to leave??

Carlton is not a great place for a young kid trying to develop his game. Clubs like Hawthorn, Port, and Collingwood are fantastic in this aspect.
I wonder whether Wayne Hughes and his recruiting partners feel the same way.

I wouldnt mind the flop "Roughead "at our club.....nice footballer.

They gambled and won with a few players...Franklin was bagged after a poor championship.....

Lewis portayed as a slow U18 bully who wasnt top ten material, and Mitchell touted as being slower than maple syrup and therefore useless and only fit for the VFL.......

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training partner."
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Synbad

Your ability to turn any thread into an opportuity for another another Lance bashing is boring, childish and plain stupid. Get a life. The statistics don't back you up, the club doesn't back you up (Captain) and 90% of the people reading on this site don't back you up, so take some valium and move on from your unhealthy & relentless obsession with denegratig one of our few good players. I am thoroughly sick of reading your Lance bashing drivel !