I posted this in the Vossy thread, but thought its best in here where we will be discussing all Trade and drafting prospects and strategies moving forward:
Tanking will be a subject discussed, not dear to my heart but worthwhile considering, and its worth considering we might not need to tank to end with the wooden spoon.
Crusader wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
Crusader wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
My focus is on acquiring Van Hattem and Walker this year.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
Is there something better brewing, or, you dont think we will end up winning the spoon?
I was barracking for Effendopes vs GWS and Tigers vs Crows. They put up a good show.
Anything can happen ... you dont believe we are trying to end up 10th?
Oh, we’ll win the spoon. We just won’t be permitted to get two top 5 candidates through the door.
Whatever cleverness you think you can cook up with bids & slides & bonuses & deficits, trust me, it’s over.
OK then, that's just your opinion. I don't think that's right, and I think you have missed something.
According to Jon Ralph, the AFL has decided (unofficially?) we will be out of contention for the end of round 1 compo pick, if we push our first pick out ourselves. Unless, ofcourse the AFL can't stop us from making our "natural" selection. ie pick the player every other team would have picked ahead of Walker with our first pick.
What are the Draft Gurus telling us? Sheehan and the others? What's the likely order of players picked in the Draft? Hint. Its not Walker.
The consensus all year has been Cochrane goes at first pick and Port will need to hand over 2 x1st round picks to get him (Bargain imo). As of last week, Van Hatton was touted the player most likely to contest Cochrane for the No 1 mantle, putting Walker as the "natural" or "popular", or "obvious" Pick 3....maybe 4, 5... Therefore, its "natural" for us to pick those two boys ahead of Walker.
ie we chose to take, the most popularly agreed pick 1, Cochrane, and Port matches it, effectively pushing our pick 1 to pick 2. Hence the compo pick.
Unfairly, Carlton "may" not be given the compensatory pick because we pushed our own pick one spot. But if Richmond deliberately pick Walker with first pick (knowing we have the two 1sts to match it), to receive the compensatory pick end of round 1, they are allowed. It is very obvious how this can be contested by Carlton, but that's another story.
Why would we pick Cochrane and McHatton before Walker?
The "natural/ popular/ obvious choice" for best player available with our "natural" pick 1 is there for the taking: Cochrane or Van Hatton.
In fact, we have 2 1st round picks use and pick McHatton and to match the bid on FS Walker at 3 or 4.... After all, it was another team who decided Walker was worth pick 3 or 4 ... . The AFL can't force the order of the best players to be selected at the Draft before the Draft; the clubs decide that "naturally" within the rules. Therefore, there's no "logical" reason to lose the compensatory end of round 1 compo pick, that we would use to make up the points shortfall of our second 1st pick (from Sydney) if we had it.
Furthermore, its in our interest to push Walker to pick 3+, because we will require less points to match the bid (than we would have if walker was pick 1 or 2) to make up the shortfall in points our 2nd 1st pick (Sydney pick 15-18) provides.
Whether we do receive the compo pick or not, we have NM's 2nd round pick to make up some of the shortfall of our Sydney 1st round pick.
The question isn't whether we can get McHatton and Walker, if we are wooden spooners, the question and debate is why should we lose our compensatory end of 1st round pick if our pick just because it was pushed back by us as a result of making the same "natural/ normal" decision any other team would make.
For us its worth contesting the AFL for the compensatory pick if we need our first 2nd round pick (from NM) to stay where it is, and not pushed back further back if we used some of its points to make up the shortfall of our Sydney round 1 pick for a pick 3.
Makes sense?
PS: Be mindful, and I'm sure Football Dept is, if Richmond end up last they will naturally bid for Cochrane, followed by Walker (or the other way around) to give themselves a compo pick, and to stick the birdie up at us for taking Walker, who was their train on NGA player. Effectively, we pay 2 x 1sts for Walker, and don't receive a compo pick, unless Richmond select Walker at Pick 2. They can pick walker 1 and Cochrane 2 to stick it right up us, effectively costing us 2 x 1sts and an end of 1st round compo pick, OR 3 fkn 1sts.
Fk that!
Hence I'm leaning to Tank as much as that hurts, because we will not find a Mobile ruck made for the new CB ruck rules for a long long time, and, our mids are lacking a mobile ruck at CB's where we are bleeding 5-6 goal bursts from the opposition because we can't compete in the CB ruck duel when Pitto fatigues.
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