Mods can you please clean this up.
Kids might be reading

What is this based on?
Twomeys sources?
Likely odds?

Tea leaves

I thought the point was clear, but I can elaborate.
It is an 'example' of how the academy bids actually improves our total points value and to how high we can match a bid after them.
i.e. If our picks slide back 3 places our points value total only goes back 1 pick.
It's so people stop worrying at the thought of our picks #9 & #11 sliding backwards and not being able to get Dean and Ison.

I was actually providing more detail to your response to 17th's question (which I cut out when quoting as I didn't think it was necessary).

An interesting fact about the Duursma kids .................. we hear so much these days about a lot of these kids having a basketball background or athletic background etc etc .......... non AFL type of background .
Well the Duursma kids also come into the game off a non AFL type background . Ever noticed how the Duursma's are so nimble and agile . That's coz the come from a DANCING background . Yep , that's correct . Turns out mum is a champion dancer to the point she has her own Dance School where all her kids have spent a heap of time as kids . Apparently all the kids as well as being top sportsmen are all fantastic dancers as well . This new kid coming in is apparently a brilliant tap dancer . No wonder all the kids can turn on a three penny bit .

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All my dangerous friends

Thanks.
So it means that each academy pick also lower the points we require. (Probably by more than the points we lose as we are behind those academy picks.)
It will be interesting to see what we do - whether we trade up to a top 5 pick for which we’d probably lose one of our future first round picks. Or whether we hang on to our future round picks, get Dean plus one other top 15 pick this year and then go hard for Butters with the remaining non-Walker picks from the next 2 years.
Also, I think if we trade INTO next years first round (eg by trading OUT one of our first rounders from this year) it is a pretty strong signal we are gunning for Butters next year.

Pick slide example with the following information:
1. Cal Twomey phantom guide.
2. Where the Suns & Lions kids will be bid on.

Example 1.
Without Academy players.
1. Duursma - 3000pts
2. Duff-Tytler - 2481pts
3. Robey - 2178pts
4. Taylor - 1962pts
5. Dean - 1795pts
6. Sharp
7. Schubert
8. Lindsay
9. Farrow
10. Grlj
11. Marsh
12. Cumming

Pick #5 = 1795pts
Picks #9 & #11 = 2560pts (pick #2)
Balance = 765pts (pick #20 - 757pts)

Example 2.
With Academy players.
1. Duursma
2. Uwland - GCS
3. Duff-Tytler
4. Patterson - GCS
5. Annable - Lions
6. Robey
7. Taylor
8. Dean
9. Sharp
10. Schubert
11. Lindsay
12. Farrow
13. Grlj
14. Marsh
15. Cumming

Pick #8 = 1443pts
Picks #12 & #14 = 2164pts (appx. pick #3)
Balance = 721pts (pick #21)

When you apply the 10% discount, our return (balance) pick actually drops back another spot.
I didn't do the sums on this before.

In example 1:
Pick #5 = 1795pts less 10% = 1615pts
Picks #9 & #11 = 2560pts (pick #2)
Balance = 945pts (pick #16 - 924pts)

In example 2:
Pick #8 = 1443pts less 10% = 1299pts
Picks #12 & #14 = 2164pts (appx. pick #3)
Balance = 865pts (pick #18 - 836pts)

As an FYI if we were still using last seasons system with the academy bids.

Pick #8 = 1551pts less 20% = 1241pts
Picks #12 & #14 = 2429pts (pick #3 - 2234pts)
Balance = 1188pts (pick #14 - 1161pts)

We would have only had to use pick #12 to get Dean last season.
The rule change has cost us 4 picks.

I'd be leaning to us using the balance pick or trading it to 2026 for Cody.

On another note, Johannisen just got delisted by the dogs.
Any takers?

Hopefully no balls in sulphuric acid this time

happy to dip BV's balls in acid again

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This type of slight is alien in the more cultured part of the world - Walsh. Its up there with mad dogs, Englishmen and the midday sun!

Balance, footwork and quick decision making goes a long way in most sports.
It could explain why he moves so well in footy boots, tap tap tap.
If he starts dancing the Irish jig after a goal, we will all know why.

I understand what you're saying. The academy picks do make it easier to get Dean as the points required will be substantially less than if there were no academy picks in there.

The point I was trying to make is that we need to draft 3 players at a minimum. If we trade our two top picks (currently 9 and 11) up to get one of the top 3 picks then we'll lose our ability to get Dean. We only have 4 picks of value and picks 43 and 54 won't have enough points for Dean.

We shouldn't touch next years picks in my opinion. We have two R1, but no R2 or R3. The two R1 picks will likely be enough for Walker, but we won't know until the AFL confirm the rules and the 2026 season is over. If need be we can being forward the 2027 picks into better 2026 picks.

I would be disappointed if we transferred one of our picks this year into next year's lot. We need talent into our team now. So to get a Schubert/Lindsay/Grlj/Dovaston/Ludowyke type now as well as Dean and Ison would be the best way to go. Moving picks into next year delays our rebuild.

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Jagga

We should use the balance pick now and get talent in the door. We have enough R1 picks over the next two years for Cody.


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Jagga

I agree, trading up the board is not on the cards unless we add future picks to our current ones to trade or swap future 1st picks for more 1sts this year.

I also agree and without knowing what the AFL is going to do with next years FS rule, I'd rather add another top 20 pick in this draft.
I've already put this on page 12:


We still have Gresham we can use a late pick on or upgrade a rookie to the primary list for that last spot IIRC.

Refresh not rebuild, you'll send people into meltdown.

Handy info.

If one of them ever gets good (or infamous) enough to be on Dancing With The Stars, we can have a bet.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

WOW, that is some serious analysis! Thank you!

Apparently Callum Twomey mentioned that West Coast might put in an early bid on Dean.
I'd be surprised if this occurs however it makes me wonder if we would match a very early selection which would mean effectively using picks #9 and #11 on Dean. Would we match if the Tigers bid for example? I wonder how much draft capital we would be willing to sacrifice for Dean.

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'The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it'
H.L. Mencken

Cheaper to trade him back from them in two years. Will cost less than a first round.

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░L░I░N░K░I░N░B░I░O ░

Agent Twomey still at it?

Only way West Coast put in an early bid is if the Scum do a deal to move up & the Eagles move back.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

Clubs tend not to select a father-son or academy player as their first selection.

There is the prestige of being the number one player and also a bonus of $10,000 provided by the AFL. Why would you give that to a player that is going to play for another team?

Examples are Nick Daicos going at Pick 4 in 2021 and Will Ashcroft at Pick 2 in 2022 despite both being touted as the best players in their respective years.

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Jagga

He also said it is unlikely that they would bid on Dean and it would more likely come in at around pick 5 or 6.
He also said we are into Lachy Dovaston with the slide back pick as long as it comes in before Ison bid.