Rod Spooky Galt wrote:
Humpers wrote:
Rod Spooky Galt wrote:
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If we assume the Dean bid comes in around pick 9 - JSOS compo is probably about pick 22 and the pick we got from Brisbane is around 34, so we'd need about another 180 points to match the bid. A third rounder for Motlop would cover that, and clear a list spot for Isun later in the night.
Pick #9 = 1355 points
Pick #22 = 686 points
Pick #34 = 360 points
So 309 points short which would normally mean we would require pick #36 (317 points) as well however we get a 10% discount on father sons so a mid 3rd rounder should be enough.
Remember that teams can go into deficit up to 1723 points however we would want to avoid this with Cody Walker coming through next year.
I'm clearly referring to the context of that hypothetical trade, which would involve us exchanging 9 (which would become 11) for 2.
Irrespective of whether we can get a Curnow deal done - we should be looking to offload that pick given the likelihood of bids coming from Essendon**** and St Kilda immediately before it.
Essendon*** have Picks 4 and 5 which will probably get bumped out to Picks 5 and 6. Pick 5 is worth 1795 points. If Dean gets bid on then we have to come up with 1616 points (with the 10% discount). How are you going to do that if you trade away the TDF compo pick?
Using your example if the JSOS pick is Pick 22 which is 686 points. Pick 34 is 360 points and Pick 44 is 167 points. That is a total of 1213 points or 403 points short.
The only way you would trade out the TDF compo pick is if you got a good player and at least Pick 32 (405 points) in return. That assumes the later picks aren't getting bumped which is bad assumption. So you'd want a pick better than that. The other option is trading it for two lower picks of higher total value (but you need to be careful as picks are bumped).
I say keep the TDF compo pick and then use it on Dean when you need it. If it's Pick 11 then that is 1205 points which is well on the way to cover the 1616 points we need if Dean is nominated at Pick 5. We will then need to use some of the points of Pick 22 to make up the difference. Pick 22 will then get pushed out to Pick 39 or thereabouts. So then you'd have Picks 34, 39 and 44 to go to the draft or use on a player like Chesser. Don't trade away picks because you're scared of a bid.
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You're assuming the only option is to trade down (or out all together). We effectively lose all compo for TDK by using it all on points to match a father/son we can achieve with lower picks, and can still get a first round pick in.
Either trade up to GC's first, or get involved in a deal for pick 2/Allen compo.
SOS compo/pick we got from Brisbane last year/our actual third/whatever we get for Gov, Motlop, Binns etc will be sufficient.
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