https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/it-means-you-re-stuffed-these-victorian-powerhouses-are-in-the-afl-s-no-man-s-land-20250404-p5lpd4.html‘It means you’re stuffed’: These Victorian powerhouses are in the AFL’s no man’s landBy Jake Niall
Back in the late ’90s, then Carlton coach David Parkin expressed to me his view that clubs entered into rebuilding mode when they had no choice. “It means you’re stuffed.”
Thus, it is not surprising that Brad Scott and Essendon** have described their 2025 position as “a reset” and that the Bombers feel they’ve already endured that word which is a signal for the fans to be patient, as kids accumulate games and veterans are gently or forcibly shunted.
It’s debatable whether Essendon** are rebuilding, or in the logical next phase, which a veteran list manager of another club designated as “building.”
Today, there are three clubs I’d place in no man’s land, which means that they’re not rebuilding, contending or even building.
It should not surprise readers that Melbourne, Carlton and Port Adelaide are the clubs that have stumbled into no man’s land, although the Demons are attempting a cultural rebuild, and have refreshed their list with young talent.
Teams that end up in that list management purgatory are often those who’ve sought to contend and fallen short, but have not yet committed to the next stage and aren’t young overall. Melbourne falls into that category, alas.
The Demons have declined in proportion to the ageing and injuries – to Christian Petracca’s happiness, as much as his internal organs – of their superstars. Handling their unease or decline is difficult.
Carlton’s slide into limbo-land is primarily due to excessive reliance on a super six players, a few of whom are bedevilled with injury, and insufficient depth.
Richmond of 2023 was in no man’s land, caught between the glorious Hardwick/Cotchin revolution and the imminent rebuild which has turned into a hard core, scorched earth version. Their course correction to rebuild was immediate.
Arguably, the Bombers were marooned in no man’s land for years after the drugs saga – certainly they landed there early this decade, as attempts to fast track to contention (see trades of 2017-19) failed. St Kilda was in that same unwanted post code, once the rebuild of 2013-17 foundered on the rocks of poor selections.
“What you do next is the most important thing,” said one club’s list manager of teams that fell into no man’s land.
In 2025, the position of five clubs is as clear as cut glass. Richmond and the West Coast Eagles are in total rebuilds. Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney and Hawthorn are unequivocally in premiership contention.
Rebuilding is defined, as NFL teams do, as the stage when your overriding priority is to collect talent. The path is longer-range, the primary mechanism the draft.
If you’re rebuilding, there’s no point in giving up significant draft capital for a player older than mid-20s. Essendon**, hence, can be defined in that mode – they eschewed pursuing Dan Houston, holding their draft picks, and they’re fielding teams in the bottom three for games played and age.
Assisted by the input of recruiters or list managers, I’ve placed all 18 clubs in the four phases of list construction.
Adelaide and Gold Coast look threatening, and it’s conceivable that either could reach the top six. But their list profiles – with minimal finals experience (none in Gold Coast history) – define those teams as quintessential “building” clubs.
Fremantle’s demographics are surprisingly near the bottom for games played this year. Despite high expectations (which this column shared), the Dockers cannot be placed in the contending camp, and are definitely building.
This doesn’t preclude the Crows, Suns or even Dockers from giving the premiership a shake. The point is that they’re not yet ripe. If they contend this year, it will be ahead of schedule.
“Building” is characterised by a shift to specific, needs-based recruiting of mature players, such as Fremantle trading for Shai Bolton or the Suns importing running half-backs Dan Rioli and John Noble.
Collingwood and Geelong, by dint of their demographics (and refusal to bow to the draft’s gravity), are in contention mode, even if it is not yet clear whether they can go all the way. Regardless of whether they make the top four, the old Magpies run the risk of a descent into no man’s land in 2026 without an infusion of quality youth.
Sydney began this season in the premiership mix. I doubt they’re capable of winning it. But I’ve designated them as “contending” on the basis that they were minor premiers and grand finalists last year and harbour flag aspirations.
The Bulldogs, impressive in surmounting the absence of Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar, are right on the cusp of contention. The list profile, though, suggests that they’re – just – on the building site.
Surprisingly, North Melbourne have graduated from perennial rebuild into “building” under Alastair Clarkson, on the back of repeated top five picks. This switch is evident in the recruitment of Jack Darling, Caleb Daniel and Luke Parker, in their pursuit of mature players on the market and willingness to trade an early pick for Houston.
St Kilda, while better performed than North lately, have most hallmarks of a rebuilding team, and I’ve graded them accordingly, alongside the Bombers, Richmond and West Coast.
The Saints have held their draft choices since Ross Lyon’s arrival, casting off veterans Seb Ross and Tim Membrey, and were not displeased to gain draft compensation for Josh Battle. St Kilda’s decision to extend Lyon’s contract, as Essendon** did with Scott, bespoke their view that they had the coach they wanted and wished to give him a longer runway.
“We have transformed from one of the oldest lists in the competition to one of the youngest,” said president Andrew Bassat when Lyon’s extension was announced.
Hawthorn also spent time in no man’s land earlier this decade, before the clumsy handover from Clarkson to Sam Mitchell triggered a reckoning and a 66-game rebuilding of the list. As with other clubs, the Hawks planned to harvest the draft before it was plundered by the Tasmania Devils.
Hawthorn of 2025 are a rare instance of a club that jumped straight from rebuilding into contention, bypassing the gateway of building mode.
The competition is so tight now that more than a dozen clubs can aspire to making finals every year. The cornerstone of success, as club people acknowledge, is getting the forecasting right. Knowing thyself.
To deplete the cupboard of draft picks and/or salary cap space and then fail, can consign a club to either purgatory in no man’s land or a stint in the cellar.
Such was the Lions’ lot under Michael Voss when they unwisely punted on Brendan Fevola in 2009 after a fleeting finals victory over Carlton; they weren’t back in finals until 2019. By then, a new club had sprouted on the Gold Coast, free agency had come and Victorian empires – and Peter V’landys’ “rugba league” – had struck back.
Projecting Melbourne’s ladder position in 2025 was not much easier than forecasting weather in the city of the same name.
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