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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 1:25 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24662
Location: Bondi Beach
redback wrote:
Effes wrote:
Arc enemy: The damning stats where the 'blaze away Blues' are failing

Riley Beveridge highlights one of Carlton's major areas of concern after last week's horror loss to Richmond

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1282296/arc ... re-failing


Oh my lord it’s not a great shock we have been saying that for eons did we really need for confirmation from a journo did we


Quote:
On Thursday night, 65 per cent of Carlton's inside-50s – the most of any side in the competition – were from beyond the area defined as 'near the arc'. Furthermore, another 34 per cent of those entries landed within 30m of goal. That's typical of a side that combined hopeful long entries with deep, more difficult kicks. In other words, they took the least optimal options the overwhelming majority of times.

The 34 per cent of deep entry kicks that were delivered from beyond the 'near the arc' area ranked second-most in the League, behind only Port Adelaide. It should be of little surprise the Power also lost badly to the tune of 91 points.

The results, from a Carlton perspective, were clear. The side's 65 inside-50 entries were the second-most across the entire weekend, and yet the Blues only converted 14 per cent of those into goals. In the second half, Carlton's conversion rate dipped to an even more dispiriting seven per cent.


So glad the spotlight is on the rsults of all the hard work done beyond the forwardline. We are not as crap beyond the forwardline as some say.

Focus on the real issue, and fix it, and we will be a top 4 side...this year!

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 1:54 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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I kinda just don't care any more.

I still care for the footy club and I'm not jumping off Carlton… but I'm so dispassionate about talk of sakcing the coach.

Sakc the coach and then what? Sakc then next one a few years later. Rinse and repeat. Sakc away another 30 years.

I do think Wojee's comment a few pages back has merit… we are flaky and haven't been able to deal with expectation in the last 10–15 years or more. True there's ben very few times where our team has had any genuine expectation, but in general terms, we fail too many mental hurdles and this is demonstrated to be regardless of the coach.

May as well leave Voss in place in the hope it all somehow clicks. Can't be any worse than sack/hire/sack 3–5 year cycle.

But, whatever, I don't care. I just want Carlton to win a flag before I die.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:01 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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I think Voss needs to go… bcos we’re one good coach from turning all of this around.

We don’t have much of a gameplan. There is no plan b. We don’t run. All of which has been the calling card of crc under Voss.

We’re stale, and when we’re around 0-5, 1-5… or there abouts on the year. I’d be sending him packing and sounding out the next coach.

Heads will roll across the afl coaching ranks this season. Let’s jump the queue and get best available.

Coaching tho… while the board and within the walls of front office are riddled with ego and arrogance will only count for so much.

Once again,imo we need a clean out.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:18 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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I think all Voss needs is another ex senior coach to play his 2IC.
Our list has some deficiencies that if we trade/draft right this year we can mostly fix them or at least move forwards.
I'd like to see some big names traded in and out if TDK stays.
Matt Rowell would be a good addition.


Last edited by Sidefx on Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:21 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24662
Location: Bondi Beach
camel wrote:
I kinda just don't care any more.

I still care for the footy club and I'm not jumping off Carlton… but I'm so dispassionate about talk of sakcing the coach.

Sakc the coach and then what? Sakc then next one a few years later. Rinse and repeat. Sakc away another 30 years.

I do think Wojee's comment a few pages back has merit… we are flaky and haven't been able to deal with expectation in the last 10–15 years or more. True there's ben very few times where our team has had any genuine expectation, but in general terms, we fail too many mental hurdles and this is demonstrated to be regardless of the coach.

May as well leave Voss in place in the hope it all somehow clicks. Can't be any worse than sack/hire/sack 3–5 year cycle.

But, whatever, I don't care. I just want Carlton to win a flag before I die.


You're obviously breathing well camel. No need to panic.

Just sort out forward entry and forwards and we will both see a flag this year.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:26 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24662
Location: Bondi Beach
Sidefx wrote:
I think all Voss needs is another senior coach to play his 2IC.
Our list has some deficiencies that if we trade/draft right this year we can mostly fix them or at least move forwards.
I'd like to see some big names traded in and out if TDK stays.
Matt Rowell would be a good addition.


I agree sidex

Can't stand the Carlton sack the coach mentality.
Look at our assets. Identify the gaps. Fill them.

This is the year we could pinch the flag.
Until we are mathematically out of contention, I do not write this team off.

We will improve our list next year.
The TDK decision will be made sooner than later, to give us a chance to close all the options we have targeted over the last 2 years for 2026

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:28 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Posts: 6348
bondiblue wrote:
redback wrote:
Effes wrote:
Arc enemy: The damning stats where the 'blaze away Blues' are failing

Riley Beveridge highlights one of Carlton's major areas of concern after last week's horror loss to Richmond

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1282296/arc ... re-failing


Oh my lord it’s not a great shock we have been saying that for eons did we really need for confirmation from a journo did we


Quote:
On Thursday night, 65 per cent of Carlton's inside-50s – the most of any side in the competition – were from beyond the area defined as 'near the arc'. Furthermore, another 34 per cent of those entries landed within 30m of goal. That's typical of a side that combined hopeful long entries with deep, more difficult kicks. In other words, they took the least optimal options the overwhelming majority of times.

The 34 per cent of deep entry kicks that were delivered from beyond the 'near the arc' area ranked second-most in the League, behind only Port Adelaide. It should be of little surprise the Power also lost badly to the tune of 91 points.

The results, from a Carlton perspective, were clear. The side's 65 inside-50 entries were the second-most across the entire weekend, and yet the Blues only converted 14 per cent of those into goals. In the second half, Carlton's conversion rate dipped to an even more dispiriting seven per cent.


So glad the spotlight is on the rsults of all the hard work done beyond the forwardline. We are not as crap beyond the forwardline as some say.

Focus on the real issue, and fix it, and we will be a top 4 side...this year!

Huh, are you saying our forward entries were good?

Did you miss the part about "Blaze Away Blues"?

I'm confused.

Quote:
Shallow entries from 'near the arc', where the ball drops between 30m to 50m from goal, suggests a lowering of the eyes and subsequently generates a score on average 43 per cent of the time. It's the most effective way to score.

Deeper entries from 'near the arc', with the inside-50 dropping to within 30m of goal, suggests a tougher kick overall but still generates a score chain on average 36 per cent of the time.

Both shallow and deep entries, so long as they are 'near the arc', are the most effective and efficient ways of producing scoring chains. Carlton, though, frequently takes another route to goal with little success.


Last edited by Sidefx on Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:31 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2005 8:23 am
Posts: 48682
Location: Canberra
bondiblue wrote:
camel wrote:
I kinda just don't care any more.

I still care for the footy club and I'm not jumping off Carlton… but I'm so dispassionate about talk of sakcing the coach.

Sakc the coach and then what? Sakc then next one a few years later. Rinse and repeat. Sakc away another 30 years.

I do think Wojee's comment a few pages back has merit… we are flaky and haven't been able to deal with expectation in the last 10–15 years or more. True there's ben very few times where our team has had any genuine expectation, but in general terms, we fail too many mental hurdles and this is demonstrated to be regardless of the coach.

May as well leave Voss in place in the hope it all somehow clicks. Can't be any worse than sack/hire/sack 3–5 year cycle.

But, whatever, I don't care. I just want Carlton to win a flag before I die.


You're obviously breathing well camel. No need to panic.

Just sort out forward entry and forwards and we will both see a flag this year.


Thanks bondi.

It's welcome to see a beacon of light and hope among a growing tidal wave of doom.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:51 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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So I checked 2024 stats

For goals/I50 we are #1 with 0.263
Sydney were #2 and GWS #3 the only other teams above 0.26


The AFL average was 0.237
The lowest was Richmond 0.191 and everyone else was above 0.214

Brisbane was just above average and most of the other above average teams made the 8.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:59 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24662
Location: Bondi Beach
Sidefx wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
redback wrote:
Effes wrote:
Arc enemy: The damning stats where the 'blaze away Blues' are failing

Riley Beveridge highlights one of Carlton's major areas of concern after last week's horror loss to Richmond

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1282296/arc ... re-failing


Oh my lord it’s not a great shock we have been saying that for eons did we really need for confirmation from a journo did we


Quote:
On Thursday night, 65 per cent of Carlton's inside-50s – the most of any side in the competition – were from beyond the area defined as 'near the arc'. Furthermore, another 34 per cent of those entries landed within 30m of goal. That's typical of a side that combined hopeful long entries with deep, more difficult kicks. In other words, they took the least optimal options the overwhelming majority of times.

The 34 per cent of deep entry kicks that were delivered from beyond the 'near the arc' area ranked second-most in the League, behind only Port Adelaide. It should be of little surprise the Power also lost badly to the tune of 91 points.

The results, from a Carlton perspective, were clear. The side's 65 inside-50 entries were the second-most across the entire weekend, and yet the Blues only converted 14 per cent of those into goals. In the second half, Carlton's conversion rate dipped to an even more dispiriting seven per cent.


So glad the spotlight is on the rsults of all the hard work done beyond the forwardline. We are not as crap beyond the forwardline as some say.

Focus on the real issue, and fix it, and we will be a top 4 side...this year!

Huh, are you saying our forward entries were good?

Did you miss the part about "Blaze Away Blues"?

I'm confused.

Quote:
Shallow entries from 'near the arc', where the ball drops between 30m to 50m from goal, suggests a lowering of the eyes and subsequently generates a score on average 43 per cent of the time. It's the most effective way to score.

Deeper entries from 'near the arc', with the inside-50 dropping to within 30m of goal, suggests a tougher kick overall but still generates a score chain on average 36 per cent of the time.

Both shallow and deep entries, so long as they are 'near the arc', are the most effective and efficient ways of producing scoring chains. Carlton, though, frequently takes another route to goal with little success.


NO. Bad wording. Thinking, not writing.

I am glad the spotlight in that report is not on the comedy capers that cost 4 goals.
It is also not on the midfield group, nor the defense after, especially so that Weitering and SOS beat their men handsomely.

It is the forward entry after getting the ball forward of the square, which is at question. Main reason we lost last week.

I acknowledge Cripps and Hewett do not possess the pace to break away from quicker chasing opponents.
They are not there to do that. Crippa did it a few times last year, but that's one reason for their bomb.
That's where Cerra and Walsh have to show their speed of legs and mind. Strength and positioning to receive ball and run off.
Then there's the rotations that need doing to keep them fresh and give them a running chance.

The midfield group need options ahead when running out of the square.
That's on the forward line.
That's what the spotlight is on in that report.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 3:01 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24662
Location: Bondi Beach
jezzarules wrote:
So I checked 2024 stats

For goals/I50 we are #1 with 0.263
Sydney were #2 and GWS #3 the only other teams above 0.26


The AFL average was 0.237
The lowest was Richmond 0.191 and everyone else was above 0.214

Brisbane was just above average and most of the other above average teams made the 8.



Anomoly

No way should we have lost that game.

Hopefully that's the kick in the pants we needed. Can't hide from those embarrassing stats.
Do something about it.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 3:02 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 4:42 pm
Posts: 6891
bondiblue wrote:
redback wrote:
Effes wrote:
Arc enemy: The damning stats where the 'blaze away Blues' are failing

Riley Beveridge highlights one of Carlton's major areas of concern after last week's horror loss to Richmond

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1282296/arc ... re-failing


Oh my lord it’s not a great shock we have been saying that for eons did we really need for confirmation from a journo did we


Quote:
On Thursday night, 65 per cent of Carlton's inside-50s – the most of any side in the competition – were from beyond the area defined as 'near the arc'. Furthermore, another 34 per cent of those entries landed within 30m of goal. That's typical of a side that combined hopeful long entries with deep, more difficult kicks. In other words, they took the least optimal options the overwhelming majority of times.

The 34 per cent of deep entry kicks that were delivered from beyond the 'near the arc' area ranked second-most in the League, behind only Port Adelaide. It should be of little surprise the Power also lost badly to the tune of 91 points.

The results, from a Carlton perspective, were clear. The side's 65 inside-50 entries were the second-most across the entire weekend, and yet the Blues only converted 14 per cent of those into goals. In the second half, Carlton's conversion rate dipped to an even more dispiriting seven per cent.


So glad the spotlight is on the rsults of all the hard work done beyond the forwardline. We are not as crap beyond the forwardline as some say.

Focus on the real issue, and fix it, and we will be a top 4 side...this year!


I don’t think top 4 is attainable.

What’s your reaction if we fail to make the 8?

You’re always so optimistic. Some, like me, might even say blindly optimistic. But how’s your feelings if we don’t make the 8?

Where does change/ improvement come from moving forward?


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 3:21 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:09 pm
Posts: 5820
bondiblue wrote:
jezzarules wrote:
So I checked 2024 stats

For goals/I50 we are #1 with 0.263
Sydney were #2 and GWS #3 the only other teams above 0.26


The AFL average was 0.237
The lowest was Richmond 0.191 and everyone else was above 0.214

Brisbane was just above average and most of the other above average teams made the 8.



Anomoly

No way should we have lost that game.

Hopefully that's the kick in the pants we needed. Can't hide from those embarrassing stats.
Do something about it.

Exactly

Looking at last year's game by game for the same stat, there's a pretty strong correlation between high ratio and wins , and visa versa

Scoring below 0.27 goal/i50 we only won twice. Scoring above 0.27 we only lost twice

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 3:30 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24662
Location: Bondi Beach
Braithy wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
redback wrote:
Effes wrote:
Arc enemy: The damning stats where the 'blaze away Blues' are failing

Riley Beveridge highlights one of Carlton's major areas of concern after last week's horror loss to Richmond

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1282296/arc ... re-failing


Oh my lord it’s not a great shock we have been saying that for eons did we really need for confirmation from a journo did we


Quote:
On Thursday night, 65 per cent of Carlton's inside-50s – the most of any side in the competition – were from beyond the area defined as 'near the arc'. Furthermore, another 34 per cent of those entries landed within 30m of goal. That's typical of a side that combined hopeful long entries with deep, more difficult kicks. In other words, they took the least optimal options the overwhelming majority of times.

The 34 per cent of deep entry kicks that were delivered from beyond the 'near the arc' area ranked second-most in the League, behind only Port Adelaide. It should be of little surprise the Power also lost badly to the tune of 91 points.

The results, from a Carlton perspective, were clear. The side's 65 inside-50 entries were the second-most across the entire weekend, and yet the Blues only converted 14 per cent of those into goals. In the second half, Carlton's conversion rate dipped to an even more dispiriting seven per cent.


So glad the spotlight is on the rsults of all the hard work done beyond the forwardline. We are not as crap beyond the forwardline as some say.

Focus on the real issue, and fix it, and we will be a top 4 side...this year!


I don’t think top 4 is attainable.

What’s your reaction if we fail to make the 8?

You’re always so optimistic. Some, like me, might even say blindly optimistic. But how’s your feelings if we don’t make the 8?

Where does change/ improvement come from moving forward?


Some people pride themselves on being pragmatic. You have to be if you're a professional gambler.
In order to prove their pragmatism (wins more then fails) they may give more credence towards a lower probabilty. Conservative if you like.

David Bradbury moments. The AFL Finalists thought Carlton had their Bradbury moment midseason last year, when injury wrecked Carlton's season.

I can see the holes in the team, with injury.
I look to see where they are. Look for remedies.
See what the coach does. See what happens.
Its a game. Carlton is my team. We are getting closer to winning a flag than further; odds on.

I don't gamble against my team. Serves no purpose I'm interested in?

Voss isn't the reason we win or lose. Its a team effort.
Hopefully someone else has the talent to present solutions Vossy doesnt see.

I can see things clicking into place. Its only a click away. In the mean time I'm going to enjoy the ride.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 3:31 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24662
Location: Bondi Beach
jezzarules wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
jezzarules wrote:
So I checked 2024 stats

For goals/I50 we are #1 with 0.263
Sydney were #2 and GWS #3 the only other teams above 0.26


The AFL average was 0.237
The lowest was Richmond 0.191 and everyone else was above 0.214

Brisbane was just above average and most of the other above average teams made the 8.



Anomoly

No way should we have lost that game.

Hopefully that's the kick in the pants we needed. Can't hide from those embarrassing stats.
Do something about it.

Exactly

Looking at last year's game by game for the same stat, there's a pretty strong correlation between high ratio and wins , and visa versa

Scoring below 0.27 goal/i50 we only won twice. Scoring above 0.27 we only lost twice


WOW :thumbsup:

Something in that....a couple W's and an O

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 4:15 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Posts: 6348
bondiblue wrote:

NO. Bad wording. Thinking, not writing.

I am glad the spotlight in that report is not on the comedy capers that cost 4 goals.
It is also not on the midfield group, nor the defense after, especially so that Weitering and SOS beat their men handsomely.

It is the forward entry after getting the ball forward of the square, which is at question. Main reason we lost last week.

I acknowledge Cripps and Hewett do not possess the pace to break away from quicker chasing opponents.
They are not there to do that. Crippa did it a few times last year, but that's one reason for their bomb.
That's where Cerra and Walsh have to show their speed of legs and mind. Strength and positioning to receive ball and run off.
Then there's the rotations that need doing to keep them fresh and give them a running chance.

The midfield group need options ahead when running out of the square.
That's on the forward line.
That's what the spotlight is on in that report.

I'm still confused, you are saying it is not the midfield but it is because of the forward line?

The way I read it, the spotlight of the article is 100% focusing on the delivery into the forward line from the midfield and how the midfield holds the ball (or doesn't in our case) and the use of the ball going in.

It's how the article starts.

Quote:
"Work the arc, work the arc, work the arc."

It's a phrase, however, that has seemingly bypassed the 'Blaze Away Blues'.

Clubs refer to 'working the arc' as the practice of finding the optimal place to deliver the ball inside-50. The analytics stress that it's often best to patiently work the footy towards the arc, or around the arc, as opposed to immediately banging the ball long and deep from anywhere.

But not at Carlton, where blazing away – often to outnumbered forwards from a variety of non-conducive positions on the ground – has become a feature of a frustrating, misfiring team.


You do have a point on the forward line set up, but you can't expect them to even have one when most of the deliveries are poorly executed or delivered the worst percentage way in the F50 while being outnumbered most if not all of the time.
There is only so much room for 12 players in the F50 and most of the time we have more than that due to a slow or poorly executed transition from defence with little or no composure.
This is more midfield than forward as it has been for the last 5 years or more and we still haven't worked it out.
The speed of the game is increasing and we are still plodding along in the middle hoping for good luck.

Anyway I think this has been flogged to death for now, let's hope Voss and the team have addressed this shortfall in our F50 entires and we see a different side tonight.
I really hope so.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 9:56 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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Location: Perth
Doubling down his way out of a job.

I desperately wanted it to work. Wanted him to be the one. He’s not.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:04 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:58 pm
Posts: 1919
bondiblue wrote:
camel wrote:
I kinda just don't care any more.

I still care for the footy club and I'm not jumping off Carlton… but I'm so dispassionate about talk of sakcing the coach.

Sakc the coach and then what? Sakc then next one a few years later. Rinse and repeat. Sakc away another 30 years.

I do think Wojee's comment a few pages back has merit… we are flaky and haven't been able to deal with expectation in the last 10–15 years or more. True there's ben very few times where our team has had any genuine expectation, but in general terms, we fail too many mental hurdles and this is demonstrated to be regardless of the coach.

May as well leave Voss in place in the hope it all somehow clicks. Can't be any worse than sack/hire/sack 3–5 year cycle.

But, whatever, I don't care. I just want Carlton to win a flag before I die.


You're obviously breathing well camel. No need to panic.

Just sort out forward entry and forwards and we will both see a flag this year.


You. Are. Delusional. :!:


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:47 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Location: Steven Seagal's Martial Arts Academy
We will be zero and four

If we are lucky and everything goes right, we will then be two and four

But I wouldn't be shocked if voss gets sacked after a loss to Clarko round 6


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 11:12 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 1:24 pm
Posts: 1340
A strange team balance given the conditions and the opponent


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