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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:42 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2007 11:51 am
Posts: 1291
Blue Vain wrote:
ColourMan wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
ColourMan wrote:
IMHO, he’s a better midfielder than Hewitt and Kennedy, and offers something different to Cerra. He’s also more durable than almost all of them and a better mover than most of them.


A better mover? What does that even mean? He has a better running gait? No bone vibration? I'm tipping 17 other clubs would take Cerra before Dow and throw in a first rounder for good measure. What he offers different to Cerra is poor ball use and poor decision making. You left out in your opinion, because the stats don’t reflect that for this seasonThat's not a positive.

I'm not here to bag Paddy Dow. I like the kid and would like to see him succeed in Navy Blue. But suggesting he's our best clearance player and better than Kennedy, Hewett and comparable to Cerra is very difficult to justify. And using that as an opportunity to bag the club and the football department is poor form IMHO. They've given Paddy years of opportunities and I have no doubt they'd love to see him succeed. But he hasn't. It's in his best interests to see if he can improve in another environment.



Which stats don't reflect it?
Disposals per clanger- Kennedy 8.3 Dow 8.4 Cerra 8.5 Hewett 9.7
Disposals per turnover- Dow 4.7 Cerra 6.4 Hewett 7.0 Kennedy 7.7
Disposal efficiency- Dow 64.8 (Bottom 100 in the AFL) Kennedy 70.3 Cerra 75.6 Hewett 78.2

So Cerra and Hewett have more disposals per clanger than Dow. And all 3 have significantly more disposals per turnover and consequently, all 3 have a significantly better disposal efficiency.
Considering Dow plays less game time so he should be fresher, that's not ideal, is it? So which stats do you have that reflect differently?


Talk about being dishonest, once again you’ve misrepresented stats by creating your own ratios based on Dow’s ave number of disposals for 2023, knowing full well that he’s often been the unactivated sub!!!

Without cooking the books, Dow’s Disposals per Clanger ratio would be better (in a good way) than the other mids and his Disposals per Turnover ratio would be comparable.

Very clever manipulation, yet incredibly misleading, even dishonest!!

Even if we would continue to use your approach for 2023 averages (taking into account in some games he saw very little or no game time) for centre clearances, he still has the other 3 mids comfortably covered!!

Dow 2.4
Cerra 1.8
Hewitt 1.1
Kennedy 1.1

Dow’s average for centre clearances when starting in 2023 was close to 4 centre clearances per game!!

During our three finals, Hewitt and Cerra together provided a total of 5 centre clearances!!

That set shot miss before 3/4 was incredibly deflating, I guess there are clangers and there are clangers.

What the stats don’t show is halving a contest, locking the ball in for another stoppage (and not coughing it up). Dow did this at key times against the Demons.

Apart from being our second youngest mid, there’s a saying in US sport “that the best ability is availability”. That may not be totally true however there’s something in that…

Dow seems to have the respect of Nathan Jones, Luke Hodge, Nathan Buckley and Jack Ziebell who were all rather decent, hard nosed mids. I guess they judged for time he spent on the ground in 2023 not as a sub!!

I wish Dow the best where ever he ends up, even though I’d rather it wasn’t the Saints.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:25 am 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:09 pm
Posts: 6047
DocSherrin III wrote:
Crusader wrote:
Pick 37 then…

What is this… Pawn Stars?

Just get the deal done.


We're in no hurry to get a deal done. He's a contracted player. A future second would be 20-something. If they don't have it they can find it. If they don't find it, he stays. It's not that hard.

I agree. We need to maximise our return in the Fisher trade to compensate for the NIL return likely for Dow.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:43 am 
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Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:35 am
Posts: 17943
ColourMan wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
ColourMan wrote:
Blue Vain wrote:
ColourMan wrote:
IMHO, he’s a better midfielder than Hewitt and Kennedy, and offers something different to Cerra. He’s also more durable than almost all of them and a better mover than most of them.


A better mover? What does that even mean? He has a better running gait? No bone vibration? I'm tipping 17 other clubs would take Cerra before Dow and throw in a first rounder for good measure. What he offers different to Cerra is poor ball use and poor decision making. You left out in your opinion, because the stats don’t reflect that for this seasonThat's not a positive.

I'm not here to bag Paddy Dow. I like the kid and would like to see him succeed in Navy Blue. But suggesting he's our best clearance player and better than Kennedy, Hewett and comparable to Cerra is very difficult to justify. And using that as an opportunity to bag the club and the football department is poor form IMHO. They've given Paddy years of opportunities and I have no doubt they'd love to see him succeed. But he hasn't. It's in his best interests to see if he can improve in another environment.



Which stats don't reflect it?
Disposals per clanger- Kennedy 8.3 Dow 8.4 Cerra 8.5 Hewett 9.7
Disposals per turnover- Dow 4.7 Cerra 6.4 Hewett 7.0 Kennedy 7.7
Disposal efficiency- Dow 64.8 (Bottom 100 in the AFL) Kennedy 70.3 Cerra 75.6 Hewett 78.2

So Cerra and Hewett have more disposals per clanger than Dow. And all 3 have significantly more disposals per turnover and consequently, all 3 have a significantly better disposal efficiency.
Considering Dow plays less game time so he should be fresher, that's not ideal, is it? So which stats do you have that reflect differently?


Talk about being dishonest, once again you’ve misrepresented stats by creating your own ratios based on Dow’s ave number of disposals for 2023, knowing full well that he’s often been the unactivated sub!!!

Without cooking the books, Dow’s Disposals per Clanger ratio would be better (in a good way) than the other mids and his Disposals per Turnover ratio would be comparable.

Very clever manipulation, yet incredibly misleading, even dishonest!!


WTF are you on about?
I went to an AFL statistics website and sourced disposals per turnover and disposals per clanger. That's it! That can't be manipulated. If he's unused sub, not selected or on the bench, he doesn't get disposals, clangers or turnovers.
The same statistical criteria is applied whether they play 20 minutes, 100 minutes or zero. Whether they play 5 games or 20. That's how statistics work. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 9:52 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
According to Tom Morris: The word yesterday is that it would cost the Saints a future 4th-round draft pick. This trade will get done easily. Stephen Silvagni and Nick Austin have already had preliminary discussions.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 9:54 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
Also according to Tom Morris: The Saints also asked the question about Caleb Marchbank, another one of Stephen Silvagni’s guys from GWS and Carlton.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 10:03 am 
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Ken Hunter
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Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:29 am
Posts: 13684
rhino27 wrote:
According to Tom Morris: The word yesterday is that it would cost the Saints a future 4th-round draft pick. This trade will get done easily. Stephen Silvagni and Nick Austin have already had preliminary discussions.


Why do we just throw away players?

Why do we always have to be 'easy to trade with'? Essendon* are cauliflower but still, clubs trade with them.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 10:42 am 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 2:10 pm
Posts: 2812
Am I the only one worried that we’re trading/giving away our depth?


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 10:58 am 
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Ken Hunter
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Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:29 am
Posts: 13684
Austin on Trade Radio.

Pick 42 wont get the Fisher trade done.
Would love to keep Dow but will do what's best to further his footy.
Interested in Cats pick 7 and moving up the draft.

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So hard to earn, so easily burned
In the fullness of time
A garden to nurture and protect

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:09 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
DesEnglish wrote:
Am I the only one worried that we’re trading/giving away our depth?


No. I am too. Giving them away for not much as well is concerning.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:11 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
bluechucky wrote:
Austin on Trade Radio.

Pick 42 wont get the Fisher trade done.
Would love to keep Dow but will do what's best to further his footy.
Interested in Cats pick 7 and moving up the draft.


Nothing against Paddy personally, but I would have thought our primary aim was to do what is best for the footy club.
Giving our depth away for virtually nothing is not best for our footy club. Need to push harder for a better deal.
And on "would love to keep Dow", if that was the case, surely we'd have offered him more than 1 year.
Not suggesting we match aints 3 year deal and its too late now but if we tabled a 2 year offer to him earlier in the piece, reckon fair chance he would've taken it.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:12 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
bluechucky wrote:
Austin on Trade Radio.

Pick 42 wont get the Fisher trade done.
Would love to keep Dow but will do what's best to further his footy.
Interested in Cats pick 7 and moving up the draft.


On this, how would we get it done?
This years and next years first for pick 7 and cats 2nd rounder (presumably next years)?


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:14 am 
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Ken Hunter
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Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 8:32 am
Posts: 10471
rhino27 wrote:
Also according to Tom Morris: The Saints also asked the question about Caleb Marchbank, another one of Stephen Silvagni’s guys from GWS and Carlton.


Can't see any reason why we wouldn't throw Marchy in there as well. I mean for a future 4th we would need to add to the Dow trade.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:15 am 
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Ken Hunter
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Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 8:32 am
Posts: 10471
rhino27 wrote:
bluechucky wrote:
Austin on Trade Radio.

Pick 42 wont get the Fisher trade done.
Would love to keep Dow but will do what's best to further his footy.
Interested in Cats pick 7 and moving up the draft.


Nothing against Paddy personally, but I would have thought our primary aim was to do what is best for the footy club.
Giving our depth away for virtually nothing is not best for our footy club. Need to push harder for a better deal.
And on "would love to keep Dow", if that was the case, surely we'd have offered him more than 1 year.
Not suggesting we match aints 3 year deal and its too late now but if we tabled a 2 year offer to him earlier in the piece, reckon fair chance he would've taken it.


:thumbsup:


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 11:16 am 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:09 pm
Posts: 6047
bluechucky wrote:
Austin on Trade Radio.

Pick 42 wont get the Fisher trade done.
Would love to keep Dow but will do what's best to further his footy.
Interested in Cats pick 7 and moving up the draft.


Just to add some context to what he said about #7 - the interviewer (Cal T) mentioned that specific pick - I didn’t get the impression we are targeting that particular pick. Austin seems keen to move up in the draft order if we can though. Said we are focused on the draft this year.

He was also asked about E Hollands and basically said we’re interested but he is a contracted GC player so “wait and see”.

I get the impression that the Fisher deal might not get done until late because NM have other things going on.

And it sounds like we want future pick(s) for Dow. Pleased to hear Austin publicly say that the club wants Dow to stay and that we’ll be pushing for something from StKilda that we can actually use. I took that to mean a future late pick or two (ie. draft points for next year’s F/S).

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:57 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:55 pm
Posts: 6359
Not sure about our approach to the draft.
Personally I think we need to be adding mature talent.
Our salary cap must be full full full.

Quote:
On overall strategy:

“We’ll see what comes across our way. We’re more committed to the draft at this point in time: we’ll look to add a piece or two if we can. That’ll be about it, it’s more about finding new homes for some players first and foremost and then we’ll work through what our list spots look like after that.”


https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/1449472/what-they-said-austin-on-list-strategy


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 5:46 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
Committed to the draft? Is Austin aware that currently after our first pick, our next comes in about 870?


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:08 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:09 pm
Posts: 6047
rhino27 wrote:
Committed to the draft? Is Austin aware that currently after our first pick, our next comes in about 870?

I wonder if we’re trying to trade #16 + next year’s first to Geelong for #7 + future 4th? ie. trade out of next year’s first round for some points (which we might need for F/S), and move up in the order in this year’s first round.

We should also end up with a 2nd rounder in this year’s draft (Fisher trade).

So #7, #30(ish) & #68 would be our picks this year in that scenario.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:24 pm 
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formerly Fevola

Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:57 pm
Posts: 4744
Im pissed Collingwood may get Schultz. Geez he would have been handy for us.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:41 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
aboynamedsue wrote:
rhino27 wrote:
Committed to the draft? Is Austin aware that currently after our first pick, our next comes in about 870?

I wonder if we’re trying to trade #16 + next year’s first to Geelong for #7 + future 4th? ie. trade out of next year’s first round for some points (which we might need for F/S), and move up in the order in this year’s first round.

We should also end up with a 2nd rounder in this year’s draft (Fisher trade).

So #7, #30(ish) & #68 would be our picks this year in that scenario.


You could be right but that pick from North may wind up with the suns for Elijah leaving us with our 1st rounder (wherever that ends up) and pretty much nothing after that.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2023
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2023 7:07 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:09 pm
Posts: 6047
rhino27 wrote:
aboynamedsue wrote:
rhino27 wrote:
Committed to the draft? Is Austin aware that currently after our first pick, our next comes in about 870?

I wonder if we’re trying to trade #16 + next year’s first to Geelong for #7 + future 4th? ie. trade out of next year’s first round for some points (which we might need for F/S), and move up in the order in this year’s first round.

We should also end up with a 2nd rounder in this year’s draft (Fisher trade).

So #7, #30(ish) & #68 would be our picks this year in that scenario.


You could be right but that pick from North may wind up with the suns for Elijah leaving us with our 1st rounder (wherever that ends up) and pretty much nothing after that.

Maybe, but I think next year’s 2nd round is more likely to be of interest to GC. If that’s not getting it done, TBH I’d walk away and try again when he’s uncontracted (if we are still interested by then). Personally, EH doesn’t excite me too much (admittedly I’ve only seen bits & pieces, but his VFL performances don’t match his pre-draft highlights reel).

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