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jake_h03
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:03 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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CK95 wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
then a week's rest before our first Final, at home, in 10 years.



Will it work out that our reserves have a final that weekend? Hope so.


We’ll probably have to beat the suns reserves to make finals, who are sitting top with a percentage of 175 so probably not. But if we get some players back this week and a few are pushed back to the reserves then who knows


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Shanghai Blues
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:06 pm 
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Laurie Kerr

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Paddycripps wrote:
Any maths geniuses out there?
What is the % Carton make finals and then the flipside % we miss?


I saw we were paying $1.04 to make the finals so I guess that means we have a 96% chance of making it according to the bookies.

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Shanghai Blues
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:08 pm 
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Laurie Kerr

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jake_h03 wrote:
CK95 wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
then a week's rest before our first Final, at home, in 10 years.



Will it work out that our reserves have a final that weekend? Hope so.


We’ll probably have to beat the suns reserves to make finals, who are sitting top with a percentage of 175 so probably not. But if we get some players back this week and a few are pushed back to the reserves then who knows


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


It is not likely because North play Richmond so they both can't jump above us unless we get smashed then it could be on %

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jake_h03
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:10 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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Shanghai Blues wrote:
jake_h03 wrote:
CK95 wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
then a week's rest before our first Final, at home, in 10 years.



Will it work out that our reserves have a final that weekend? Hope so.


We’ll probably have to beat the suns reserves to make finals, who are sitting top with a percentage of 175 so probably not. But if we get some players back this week and a few are pushed back to the reserves then who knows


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


It is not likely because North play Richmond so they both can't jump above us unless we get smashed then it could be on %


We’re 8th so only one has to jump above us don’t they? Which means it’s guaranteed that one will jump above us? Plus Collingwood will prob beat Southport and overtake us as well


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Shanghai Blues
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:15 pm 
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Laurie Kerr

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jake_h03 wrote:
Shanghai Blues wrote:
jake_h03 wrote:
CK95 wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
then a week's rest before our first Final, at home, in 10 years.



Will it work out that our reserves have a final that weekend? Hope so.


We’ll probably have to beat the suns reserves to make finals, who are sitting top with a percentage of 175 so probably not. But if we get some players back this week and a few are pushed back to the reserves then who knows


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


It is not likely because North play Richmond so they both can't jump above us unless we get smashed then it could be on %


We’re 8th so only one has to jump above us don’t they? Which means it’s guaranteed that one will jump above us? Plus Collingwood will prob beat Southport and overtake us as well


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


So that mean we are 10th and in the Play in Finals (7-10th)

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Shanghai Blues
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:19 pm 
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Laurie Kerr

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The only way we miss is if North lose by a point and Gold Coast smash us so that our % drops below North. Currently the difference is 6.5%

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jake_h03
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:20 pm 
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Wayne Johnston
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Shanghai Blues wrote:
jake_h03 wrote:
Shanghai Blues wrote:
jake_h03 wrote:
CK95 wrote:
[quote="bondiblue"]then a week's rest before our first Final, at home, in 10 years.



Will it work out that our reserves have a final that weekend? Hope so.


We’ll probably have to beat the suns reserves to make finals, who are sitting top with a percentage of 175 so probably not. But if we get some players back this week and a few are pushed back to the reserves then who knows


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


It is not likely because North play Richmond so they both can't jump above us unless we get smashed then it could be on %


We’re 8th so only one has to jump above us don’t they? Which means it’s guaranteed that one will jump above us? Plus Collingwood will prob beat Southport and overtake us as well


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


So that mean we are 10th and in the Play in Finals (7-10th)[/quote]

Ohh right! I forgot about the play in thing, thought it was still top 8 only. Yeah the extra game for the play in could actually be a big advantage compared to making the top 6 and having a week off as a few of our guys coming back from injury will be better for the run


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Shanghai Blues
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:29 pm 
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Laurie Kerr

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Keeping the twos playing is important in allowing the returning & fringe players to get some match fitness. Hopefully we can stay in the VFL finals for a good run. Get the double :)

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Mickstar
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:42 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Shanghai Blues wrote:
Keeping the twos playing is important in allowing the returning & fringe players to get some match fitness. Hopefully we can stay in the VFL finals for a good run. Get the double :)


Super important Shang . A big training squad going into finals is a big morale booster . Creates an exciting vibe around the place . Of course match practice and fitness levels for the backups is invaluable .

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Paddycripps
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:55 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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Shanghai Blues wrote:
Paddycripps wrote:
Any maths geniuses out there?
What is the % Carton make finals and then the flipside % we miss?


I saw we were paying $1.04 to make the finals so I guess that means we have a 96% chance of making it according to the bookies.


So that is how it works !!
I am not a gambler.
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CK95
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 5:16 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Shanghai Blues wrote:
Keeping the twos playing is important in allowing the returning & fringe players to get some match fitness. Hopefully we can stay in the VFL finals for a good run. Get the double :)



Exactly, if our 2s are playing on that weekend off pre finals that will be a big bonus.

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bondiblue
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 5:36 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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CK95 wrote:
Shanghai Blues wrote:
Keeping the twos playing is important in allowing the returning & fringe players to get some match fitness. Hopefully we can stay in the VFL finals for a good run. Get the double :)



Exactly, if our 2s are playing on that weekend off pre finals that will be a big bonus.


Sounds like its all coming together at the right time of the year, and lucky the Top 10 Finals campaign serves our needs too

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jezzarules
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 5:54 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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Traveller86 wrote:
kingkerna wrote:
Traveller86 wrote:
Sydney would need to beat Adelaide away and/or Melbourne at home and make up 4.7% percentage against us.

This is the only way we can miss the 8 now if we fail to beat the suns and giants.

For the love of god let's just get it done next week.

Thanks for clarifying


Also saints would need to win one of their last two.

They have Geelong and Brisbane at the GABBA. Not unrealistic that they could lose both, which means it won't matter what Sydney does.

Anyway, we should get the job done ourselves, lol.

Further to this if Geelong win another game we are in regardless of what St Kilda and Sydney do

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grrofunger
PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 10:59 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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It's not impossible that Hawks beat Melbourne this weekend and then with Sydney at home playing for a finals spot also knocking off the Demons at the SCG

We win both our games and finish 4th

Beat Collingwood in week 1 of finals , straight into a prelim and beat Port at the MCG

Highly possible to then end up against Brisbane in the Grand Final

BANG !

GIVE US THE CUP !!

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bondiblue
PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:49 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
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grrofunger wrote:
It's not impossible that Hawks beat Melbourne this weekend and then with Sydney at home playing for a finals spot also knocking off the Demons at the SCG

We win both our games and finish 4th

Beat Collingwood in week 1 of finals , straight into a prelim and beat Port at the MCG

Highly possible to then end up against Brisbane in the Grand Final

BANG !

GIVE US THE CUP !!



I love this version of events. The last line sends shivers in my backbone

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CK95
PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2023 6:21 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Mitch Lewis out for Hawks, grrrrr

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Ghost of PrincesPark
PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2023 7:14 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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bondiblue wrote:
grrofunger wrote:
It's not impossible that Hawks beat Melbourne this weekend and then with Sydney at home playing for a finals spot also knocking off the Demons at the SCG

We win both our games and finish 4th

Beat Collingwood in week 1 of finals , straight into a prelim and beat Port at the MCG

Highly possible to then end up against Brisbane in the Grand Final

BANG !

GIVE US THE CUP !!



I love this version of events. The last line sends shivers in my backbone


Where can I sign up?

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Paddycripps
PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 8:28 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:55 pm
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I've refused to not get my head deep into the detail of who could kick us out of the 8, all the ramifications etc. There are smarter people with higher thresholds for migraines who can do this . But that said I just had a quick glance at the ladder and the games this weekend and seems there are 3 teams that could kick us out and GWS vs Ess is good in that it means after this weekend only 2 teams can kick us out.
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Paddycripps
PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 8:28 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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Hawks won't beat Dees.

I think it is a waste of time dreaming of 4th.
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bondiblue
PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 8:35 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Paddycripps wrote:
Hawks won't beat Dees.

I think it is a waste of time dreaming of 4th.


5th is perfect. Home Final vs Dogs or Saints or Swans or who cares

As long at Melb end up 4th its all good for us.

4th gives us the chance to win and go straight into a Prelim, but we have players coming back from injury and we will get better by the week as Finals progress, and we should peak by the 30th of September

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