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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 11:23 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24714
Location: Bondi Beach
FarmerBlue wrote:
SurreyBlue wrote:
IMO:
Cottrell isn’t a wingman. Walsh should be midfield.


Walsh is midfielder. We play a an extra mid pushing up from HF



Correct.

Cottrell has all the traits needed to be a wingman. What is he missing?

Cottrell played some fantastic games on the wing last year. In fact, he was the only bonafide wing we could rely on last year, and wasn't omitted once selected like LOB was.

Cottrell was also effective last year going to tag the Saints HBF, Sinclair, in the 2nd half and shut him out. He was able to also provide link on the wing whilst tagging Sinclair.

One amazing running athlete who has omproved his kicking, can mark and kick straight at goal.

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 11:32 am 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 2:10 pm
Posts: 2819
AGRO wrote:
I hope they buy us flowers and chocolates and take us out for a nice dinner before they roger us senseless this Sunday afternoon.


:lol:


Agree, I was thinking if you’re going to report someone for pulling players pants down then I’d expect the whole Collingwood side to be on report after this game


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 11:34 am 
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Craig Bradley
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I didn't watch the game on the weekend and probably don't need to by the sounds of it.
But it seems as though we still have the same problems, can't get the ball into the F50 to the advantage of a target, can't keep it in there, can't convert goals and we are too slow from defence.
And against a running team like the Dogs I was surprised we only lost by so little.

I just read this article and you can't really argue the stats or the point they are making. i.e.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/927553/a-trio-of-troubles-why-carlton-s-got-the-blues

Quote:
It has been like that for much of the season. Remarkably, Champion Data notes that Carlton has scored from 54.4 per cent of its forward-50 entries in its four victories this season but from only 37.1 per cent of its entries in its four defeats.


Quote:
According to Champion Data, Carlton has a kick rating of -2.7 per cent going inside-50 this season. It ranks No.14 in the competition and is ahead of only St Kilda (-2.8 per cent), Richmond (-3.6), North Melbourne (-3.9) and Hawthorn (-4.9).


Quote:
According to Champion Data, the Blues rank No.3 for disposals this season. However, despite possessing so much of the ball, they rank No.14 for inside-50s. Quite simply, they're not controlling the footy in the most dangerous areas.

To further illustrate that, Carlton ranks No.16 in the league for percentage of kicks going forward. For context, only Hawthorn and North Melbourne rate lower. The Blues also rank No.16 for percentage of kicks going long.


Quote:
Eight have a negative kick rating. They are Adam Cerra (-0.6 per cent), Adam Saad (-2.5), Patrick Cripps (-2.5), George Hewett (-6), Ollie Hollands (-7), Harry McKay (-8), Sam Walsh (-9.2) and Nic Newman (-12).


Our forward attack is too predictable with 59..4% going to Charlie or Harry, we need more targets like JSOS and McGovern up there to make us more dangerous like Brisbane. Our duo is ranked no. 1 ahead of West Coast and North.

So I think our best line up this weekend against a team that runs and is damaging looks like this.

B: Kemp Young Newman
HB: Docherty Weitering Saad

Foll: Pittonet Kennedy Cerra
C: Acres Cripps Cottrell

HF: Martin Charlie JSOS
F: Owies McKay McGovern

Int: Cincotta Hewett Durdin Walsh
Sub: LOB

And before I cop some vitriol of bringing in LOB just think of this.
We have a slow midfield and we have managed to make it even slower adding Acres and Hollands in order to have a more contested game style.
While that is great defensively we have lost run, long kicking and actually hitting targets. LOB ran 0-20m in 3.03s, he is quicker than Acres, Hollands and Binns and we need speed, plus unlike the mentioned he can kick a footy to hit a target and not just short kicks like we have been doing (the highlighted text).
The current contested game plan is not working because we fail to move the ball fast, with accuracy and forward as in the article.

Having 4 talls in the F50 will make us harder to defend against and should give us more targets and less predictability, like Brisbane.
We will sacrifice a bit of defensive marking presence with McLovin up forward but hopefully with Doc down there directing and Kemp with his intercept marking we can cope.

Acres had a shocker on the weekend kicking wise, so if he starts off like he did last week sub him out at half time with LOB and see what he can add or start with LOB and sub in Acres to finish off the game defensively as per below tactic.

We also need to not be so defensive, we are not accurate enough to play like that and we are too slow to break the lines.

As far as a game day tactic goes, we need to try and score as much as we can by 3/4 time and get a good margin.
I'd expect long kicks in the F50 and change up the targets as much as possible and make sure Owies, Durdin and Martin are at the feet of as many contests with Kennedy and Walsh pushing forward also to assist.
They are 4th quarter specialist and we then can drop McLovin and JSOS if necessary back into defence to try and stop their scoring.


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 11:45 am 
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Robert Walls
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Sidefx wrote:
I didn't watch the game on the weekend and probably don't need to by the sounds of it.
But it seems as though we still have the same problems, can't get the ball into the F50 to the advantage of a target, can't keep it in there, can't convert goals and we are too slow from defence.
And against a running team like the Dogs I was surprised we only lost by so little.

I just read this article and you can't really argue the stats or the point they are making. i.e.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/927553/a-trio-of-troubles-why-carlton-s-got-the-blues

Quote:
It has been like that for much of the season. Remarkably, Champion Data notes that Carlton has scored from 54.4 per cent of its forward-50 entries in its four victories this season but from only 37.1 per cent of its entries in its four defeats.


Quote:
According to Champion Data, Carlton has a kick rating of -2.7 per cent going inside-50 this season. It ranks No.14 in the competition and is ahead of only St Kilda (-2.8 per cent), Richmond (-3.6), North Melbourne (-3.9) and Hawthorn (-4.9).


Quote:
According to Champion Data, the Blues rank No.3 for disposals this season. However, despite possessing so much of the ball, they rank No.14 for inside-50s. Quite simply, they're not controlling the footy in the most dangerous areas.

To further illustrate that, Carlton ranks No.16 in the league for percentage of kicks going forward. For context, only Hawthorn and North Melbourne rate lower. The Blues also rank No.16 for percentage of kicks going long.


Quote:
Eight have a negative kick rating. They are Adam Cerra (-0.6 per cent), Adam Saad (-2.5), Patrick Cripps (-2.5), George Hewett (-6), Ollie Hollands (-7), Harry McKay (-8), Sam Walsh (-9.2) and Nic Newman (-12).


Our forward attack is too predictable with 59..4% going to Charlie or Harry, we need more targets like JSOS and McGovern up there to make us more dangerous like Brisbane. Our duo is ranked no. 1 ahead of West Coast and North.

So I think our best line up this weekend against a team that runs and is damaging looks like this.

B: Kemp Young Newman
HB: Docherty Weitering Saad

Foll: Pittonet Kennedy Cerra
C: Acres Cripps Cottrell

HF: Martin Charlie JSOS
F: Owies McKay McGovern

Int: Cincotta Hewett Durdin Walsh
Sub: LOB

And before I cop some vitriol of bringing in LOB just think of this.
We have a slow midfield and we have managed to make it even slower adding Acres and Hollands in order to have a more contested game style.
While that is great defensively we have lost run, long kicking and actually hitting targets. LOB ran 0-20m in 3.03s, he is quicker than Acres, Hollands and Binns and we need speed, plus unlike the mentioned he can kick a footy to hit a target and not just short kicks like we have been doing (the highlighted text).
The current contested game plan is not working because we fail to move the ball fast, with accuracy and forward as in the article.

Having 4 talls in the F50 will make us harder to defend against and should give us more targets and less predictability, like Brisbane.
We will sacrifice a bit of defensive marking presence with McLovin up forward but hopefully with Doc down there directing and Kemp with his intercept marking we can cope.

Acres had a shocker on the weekend kicking wise, so if he starts off like he did last week sub him out at half time with LOB and see what he can add or start with LOB and sub in Acres to finish off the game defensively as per below tactic.

We also need to not be so defensive, we are not accurate enough to play like that and we are too slow to break the lines.

As far as a game day tactic goes, we need to try and score as much as we can by 3/4 time and get a good margin.
I'd expect long kicks in the F50 and change up the targets as much as possible and make sure Owies, Durdin and Martin are at the feet of as many contests with Kennedy and Walsh pushing forward also to assist.
They are 4th quarter specialist and we then can drop McLovin and JSOS if necessary back into defence to try and stop their scoring.


Far too sensible - will not happen.

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 12:53 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
What's a negative kick rating? More handballs than kicks? Negative metres gained cos they're kicking backwards?


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 1:09 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:55 pm
Posts: 6363
rhino27 wrote:
What's a negative kick rating? More handballs than kicks? Negative metres gained cos they're kicking backwards?


Quote:
According to Champion Data, Carlton has a kick rating of -2.7 per cent going inside-50 this season. It ranks No.14 in the competition and is ahead of only St Kilda (-2.8 per cent), Richmond (-3.6), North Melbourne (-3.9) and Hawthorn (-4.9).

'Kick rating' is a Champion Data tool that measures the difference between a player's expected hit rate and actual hit rate. A negative kick rate, in this instance, indicates a player not executing kicks as well as the competition average.

Furthermore, of the 13 Blues players to have had at least 15 kicks going inside-50 this season, only five have a positive kick rating. They are Ed Curnow (+18.7 per cent), Charlie Curnow (+7.5), Jack Silvagni (+6.5), Matt Kennedy (+4.9) and Blake Acres (+4).

Eight have a negative kick rating. They are Adam Cerra (-0.6 per cent), Adam Saad (-2.5), Patrick Cripps (-2.5), George Hewett (-6), Ollie Hollands (-7), Harry McKay (-8), Sam Walsh (-9.2) and Nic Newman (-12).


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 1:23 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:22 am
Posts: 2742
I think McGovern must play back this week and will be important when Collingwood burst forward and kick to space for their forward to run into.
He must intercept these and he must quickly distribute well (good decisions, good execution).
If he can do this, obviously a big if, we will have a good opportunity to hurt them on the counter because so many of them run forward. And we will also need to use forward handballs to get through their half back wall but if we do, the opportunities should open up.
Of course, we will need to capitalise on our opportunities.
Lots of ‘if’s’ but just maybe….

We will also need to stop De Goey, and then Pendlebury, and then, Sidebum, and also limit the influence of Daicos and Moore.

If we can do all of that, plus all of what I wrote in the paragraph above, we should have an even money chance of breaking even :-D.

Last year, the roles were reversed going into this match and then the roles reversed coming out of it for the remainder of the season. Just imagine….


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 1:36 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:58 pm
Posts: 4299
Sidefx wrote:
rhino27 wrote:
What's a negative kick rating? More handballs than kicks? Negative metres gained cos they're kicking backwards?


Quote:
According to Champion Data, Carlton has a kick rating of -2.7 per cent going inside-50 this season. It ranks No.14 in the competition and is ahead of only St Kilda (-2.8 per cent), Richmond (-3.6), North Melbourne (-3.9) and Hawthorn (-4.9).

'Kick rating' is a Champion Data tool that measures the difference between a player's expected hit rate and actual hit rate. A negative kick rate, in this instance, indicates a player not executing kicks as well as the competition average.

Furthermore, of the 13 Blues players to have had at least 15 kicks going inside-50 this season, only five have a positive kick rating. They are Ed Curnow (+18.7 per cent), Charlie Curnow (+7.5), Jack Silvagni (+6.5), Matt Kennedy (+4.9) and Blake Acres (+4).

Eight have a negative kick rating. They are Adam Cerra (-0.6 per cent), Adam Saad (-2.5), Patrick Cripps (-2.5), George Hewett (-6), Ollie Hollands (-7), Harry McKay (-8), Sam Walsh (-9.2) and Nic Newman (-12).


Thanks :thumbsup:


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 1:39 pm 
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formerly BlueRob
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I like what SOS does (playing the link man and never giving up) but I think he will be omitted for this game.

I would like to see Dow and Boyd get their chance. I doubt very much they will even consider Dow.

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 2:20 pm 
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Robert Walls

Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 1:40 pm
Posts: 3441
I biggest problem, as far as I can see, is that we're a decent side in bad form.

Who in our side is actually in better form this year than last?
Our relative success last year was built on the back of players having best or near career-best years:

Cripps - Brownlow form
Saad - AA form
C. Curnow - Coleman medallist, first full season in years
Docherty - near AA, first full season in years
Weitering - near AA until injury
Hewitt - Career best form
Kennedy - Career best form
Young - Career best form
Newman - Career best form

Heck, even players like Plowman, when he was required in the seniors, played near career-best footy. Marchbank played seniors and played well when he did. McGovern was good before injury. Same with Pittonet. Walsh had another consistently good year until he too was injured. And so it goes.

They were backed up by a bunch of players playing solid footy.

This year...

Newman is in good form
C. Curnow is in good form
Cerra is in good form (better than last year - arguably the only player who is)
Saad is in good form

Then there are a whole pile of blokes who are going *just* okay without being great, including the skipper.

And then there are the players in the seniors who are actively in average form but are getting a game because they're too good to drop: Weitering and McKay.

The problem we have is that there are three guys in the seconds consistenly named in the best: Dow, Fogarty & Plowman. And none of us truly expect these three to improve us in the seniors. So we just have to battle through until the team finds form, tinkering at the edges until we can get some something going.


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 2:24 pm 
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Bert Deacon

Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 4:44 am
Posts: 539
bondiblue wrote:
Is the media correct today stating Cripps only won one centre clearance?

One more than Doc.

Would be interesting to find the stat of how many centre Bounces (CB's) the Carlton mids had.


We had the same amount of centre bounces as the Doggies. :grin:

We kicked 8 goals, Dogs kicked 11, plus one centre bounce for the start of each quarter. That's 23. We won 6, they won eight. Does that help or do we need to hire a statistician?

I guess all of that means Doc is an accumulator...


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 2:45 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:58 pm
Posts: 1946
16 and rain forecast for Sunday, gonna be an ugly slog.


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 2:51 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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I don't mind that

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 2:54 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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Yep, bring them down to our level somewhat :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 3:08 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Lol,
The club sent out a text to supporters with tickets to next Sunday's game encouraging them to attend the game. If they don't want to attend,,supporters are requested to give their tickets to someone who will show up. :smoking:

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 3:34 pm 
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Ken Hunter

Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 6:11 pm
Posts: 14938
CFC8795 wrote:
Lol,
The club sent out a text to supporters with tickets to next Sunday's game encouraging them to attend the game. If they don't want to attend,,supporters are requested to give their tickets to someone who will show up. :smoking:

I have a reserved seat membership. Last week lots of people around me said they are not going this week.
I will be going.
Hoping for a miracle.


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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 3:40 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Location: Kaloyasena
CFC8795 wrote:
Lol,
The club sent out a text to supporters with tickets to next Sunday's game encouraging them to attend the game. If they don't want to attend,,supporters are requested to give their tickets to someone who will show up. :smoking:



Did they also send the same text to the players?

:wink: :lol:

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 3:46 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 24714
Location: Bondi Beach
billy_bongo wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
Is the media correct today stating Cripps only won one centre clearance?

One more than Doc.

Would be interesting to find the stat of how many centre Bounces (CB's) the Carlton mids had.


We had the same amount of centre bounces as the Doggies. :grin:

We kicked 8 goals, Dogs kicked 11, plus one centre bounce for the start of each quarter. That's 23. We won 6, they won eight. Does that help or do we need to hire a statistician?

I guess all of that means Doc is an accumulator...


First question bb was the Cripps one...take it from there.

I know, you know where I'm coming from.

You've obviously ready the above posts, so you know where this analysis is going, and what it is proving.

Don't worry about the statistician. I just needed someone with access to that information.

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 3:47 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
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Location: Bondi Beach
Traveller86 wrote:
16 and rain forecast for Sunday, gonna be an ugly slog.



That's awful

I wonder who that will suit?

If we come out breathing fire and hitting hard in a tight contest, I expect it to favour us.

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PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2023 3:49 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:10 am
Posts: 1495
Sidefx wrote:
Our forward attack is too predictable with 59..4% going to Charlie or Harry, we need more targets like JSOS and McGovern up there to make us more dangerous like Brisbane. Our duo is ranked no. 1 ahead of West Coast and North.

So I think our best line up this weekend against a team that runs and is damaging looks like this.

B: Kemp Young Newman
HB: Docherty Weitering Saad

Foll: Pittonet Kennedy Cerra
C: Acres Cripps Cottrell

HF: Martin Charlie JSOS
F: Owies McKay McGovern

Int: Cincotta Hewett Durdin Walsh
Sub: LOB



I have said our biggest issue is getting it inside 50 quickly and to the advantage of our players. In the second half on the weekend we opened up the forward line and got it in quickly to the best option. The small forwards then got involved. Intersting that Charlie was involved in three goals in the 3rd quarter outside 50

I agree about McGovern forward. Allows Charlie to push up and is another genuine marking option. Martin then becomes another option.

Our ball use and speed is improving we just need to convert better. I have said it before but McKay should be second ruck like Daniher. Allows more involvement and will help with confidence.

We then have a mix inside 50 of Charlie McKay McGovern Martin Owies Motlop & Durdin. That is a great mix if we use them properly. We can also push Cripps/Kenedy forward at times

I also wouldn't bring in Kemp. I rate him but the Collingwood forward line is smaller and mobile. Boyd in with Docherty Saad Newman Cincotta is our best match up


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