Steve_C7 wrote:
Talrahir wrote:
Stefchook wrote:
Dominator_7 wrote:
Already 5 down... 6 if rumors that Clem has packed his bags and gone home already are true.
Unless we manage another package deal with GWS to bring in a group of players, that's probably about it for list changes this year. Unlikely to pick up more than 6-7 new players through draft and trading.
I'd expect most of the rookies to be gone as well.
Clearly our list needs another few years to clear out all the dead wood.
Great post! and couldn't agree more.
While we all realise that the list needs to be cut deep, we don't have the ability to replace them. We just won't have the picks or trade currency...unless SOS can weave some sort of crazy magic.
Our first 5 selections are pick 5, pick 23, pick 41, pick 49, and pick 77.
We will also have pick 16 from Geelong for last years Henderson deal.
Based on the supposed depth of talent this year we should get some decent players with picks 5, 16 and 23.
I would not be giving up any experienced quality players like Gibbs or Murphy as this is flawed logic to me.
Let's assume that we decent talent in next few years and are competitive in 4-5 years, then Gibbs would be Simmos (AA team) age now and should be considered cream on top of young talented team. Statistics will also show that there's only a 50% chance that the player we get for Gibbs will still be on the list by then and even less that they will be A grade and make no mistake Gibbs is A grade.
The lottery of the draft means that we need to carpet bomb the draft and I would rather look more to trading to get multiple top 20 picks rather than 1 top ten pick. Not sure how you could orchestrate this, but the more first round and early second round picks we have the more likely we are to find decent players.
I'd be happy to read how it is you think it's flawed logic. I understand that you value you him as a player and I do too. I'll trust that your statistics are accurate although I think there would be a much better chance than 50% that a high draft pick would not only be on our list at the ripe age of 22-23 (4-5 years later, as you projected), but also that he could potentially be a key midfielder. I know we've had our misses in the past, but we've got SOS now, who seems much more capable. The alternative, as you suggested, is that Gibbs will be a sound contributor at 31-32 y.o. I'm guessing that it's a much less likely (less than 50%) that he will still playing, let alone be consistently playing elite football. Of course it's possible but which ones more likely.
I think the other thing to consider, as well, is that teams that make the Finals don't tend to go all the way on the first tilt. So we might make 6th-8th in 4-5 years, but it might take a couple of years to go all the way. By then, my hypothetical players is 25, and Grandpa Gibbs will be 34.
While I acknowledge Gibbs is a classy player now, I don't think he'll be contributing when we're challenging for Top 4 and it seems logical to get value for him now. As you said, with the lottery of the draft you would carpet bomb the draft. To do that, you will need 'draft picks' and to get them, you will need to trade players who have currency. And contrary to your opinion, the statistics suggest that it is disproportionately more likely that a player will be a successful long term player at AFL level, the higher he is taken in the draft.
Whether they decide to trade Gibbs, or not, I think we'll both be excited at all the possibilities that will present themselves during the draft/trade period !!!!
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