I feel as though I should quote Donald Rumsfeld here...
"...because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know."Here are some known knowns. The club can control these things.
1. CultureWe seem to be improving - albeit slowly. But the playing list probably need to take a leaf out of Hawthorn's playing list and follow it to the enth degree. Here's Luke Hodge explaining this last year.
[youtube]KVt-XBNbkpk[/youtube]
LukeHodge wrote:
Every player must:
· Live an elite lifestyle
· Respect all
· Have a selfless attitude
· Leave their ego on the hook
· Have open and honest conversations - give and receive feedback when the time is right
· Fight to the death
2. List management PlanningThe club needs to have planning strategies for the next few years - and scenarios at the ready based on new changes that directly affect list management. Starting in 2015, the TPP banking mechanism now allows clubs to spend over 100% of the TPP and ASA limits (combined limit). We should plan for this...starting now.
As an example - if Carlton was $500k below the combined limit in 2015, they can spend up to $500k over the combined limits (TPP & ASA) across 2016 and 2017.
The Veterans list is abolished from 2017. We currently save $118k per player on Walker, Waite, Carrazzo and Simpson. Marc Murphy is added to that list in 2015 as a 10-year player. We save $118k on Bryce Gibbs' salary in 2016 before the phase-out.
So let's presume Waite stays... - in 2015 we save $590,000. In 2016 we're presuming Carrazzo goes so it'll be the same with Gibbs added and Waite retained. That's $1.18 million. Without Waite in the equation it's still a $944,000.
With an increase in the salary cap ( $10.07 million in 2015 and $10.37 million in 2016) - coupled with the aforementioned veterans salary excluded from the club’s total player payments - shouldn't Carlton be in the position to
a) fill a positional need with the signing of a free agent
AND b) save enough in TPP spend so that across 2016 and 2017 they are in a position to legally spend above the required TPP and ASA payments.
Culture & Planning. It's what Hawthorn have done better than anyone else. So there's lots of unknowns - but there's a lot the club can control as well. Get these two things right and they're well on their way.