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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:22 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
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Location: Bondi Beach
The Rhino wrote:
If we assume Essendon* are barred from the first two rounds of the draft, and I use a ladder order based on the AFL ladder predictor, this is what the first round of the draft will look like, bearing in mind GWS activated their compensation pick to come in at the end of the non-finalists' first round pick, and Gold Coast activated theirs at the end of the first round.

1> GWS
2> Melbourne
3> Bulldogs
4> St Kilda
5> Gold Coast
6> Carlton
7> Lions
8> West Coast
9> GWS
10> Port Adelaide
11> North Melbourne
12> Richmond
13> Collingwood
14> Fremantle
15> Geelong
16> Sydney
17> Hawthorn
18> Gold Coast

This would give clubs the following picks in the first 3 rounds:

Adelaide: 43
Brisbane: 7, 25, 41
Carlton: 6, 24, 40
Collingwood: 13, 30, 47
Essendon*: 48
Fremantle, 14, 31, 49
Geelong: 15, 32, 50
Gold Coast: 5, 18, 23, 39
GWS: 1, 9, 19, 35
Hawthorn: 17, 34, 52
Melbourne: 2, 20, 36
North Melbourne: 11, 28, 45
Port Adelaide: 10, 27, 44
Richmond: 12, 29, 46
St Kilda: 4, 22, 38
Sydney: 16, 33, 51
West Coast: 8, 26, 42
Western Bulldogs: 3, 21, 37

My targets in that draft are Gardiner, Hourigan and Salem. Going by that draft order, I think Gardiner could last till 12, depending on what happens with pick 9. I think Hourigan would go to Fremantle with their first pick, Salem could go anywhere from 11-22.

Ergo, I'd trade pick 6 and 24 to GWS for pick 9, 19 and a fringe player (lets say Golds). 9 takes care of Gardiner, 19 may not get Salem, but would still net us a quality mid (Cal Twomey and a few other phantom drafts have Dunstan being the slider).

Chris Yarran to Fremantle for pick 14 would be sufficient for me also, (hell, throw in pick 40 for pick 49 if need be).

Hampson or Warnock to whoever for something 35 onwards would net us Matt Honeychurch.

Looking at that, for the loss of Yarran and one of the back up rucks, we'd net 3 of the best talents in the draft (a key forward, key defender and a quality mid) as well as a very good speculative pick in Honeychurch.



Great effort there Rhino.
I'll be looking and referring to this list over and over for the remainder of the year.

You never cease to impress me....what was I thinking?

That's a great picture you create and not much loss for so many filled gaps in one swoop...plus there's a bit more we can do if we are rebuilding.

I hope the Carlton brains trust are thinking their way through this and make things happen, not just think about it.

We still have to build the class on this list and to lose one to gain 3 is a win imo....as long as they are class hard at it footballers who have a never say die character

:thumbsup:

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:23 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Why pick 1? Why sell the farm, when we can realistically pick up 3 good kids in the top 20 for even less?

Boyd isn't the be all and end all, and when depth is an issue, selling 2-3 players for one doesn't seem like the best piece of business.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:26 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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bondiblue wrote:
Great effort there Rhino.
I'll be looking and referring to this list over and over for the remainder of the year.

You never cease to impress me....what was I thinking?

That's a great picture you create and not much loss for so many filled gaps in one swoop...plus there's a bit more we can do if we are rebuilding.

I hope the Carlton brains trust are thinking their way through this and make things happen, not just think about it.

We still have to build the class on this list and to lose one to gain 3 is a win imo....as long as they are class hard at it footballers who have a never say die character

:thumbsup:


Thanks mate.

In no particular order, I'd be looking for the following attributes:

1) cauliflower.
2) Can come in straight away, and let Mick develop them through consistent game time cameos in the seniors, and being given roles to play.
3) Run and carry.
4) Consistency.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:27 pm 
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Ken Hunter

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..i think it's about talent, but also about G&D.. ..we're short on both.. ..we've had exposed form for years now, under two very different gameplans.. ..we have too many passengers.. ..we ought to ship off half..

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:28 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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FWIW, even if we did want Boyd, I'd be fairly certain we wouldn't come up with an offer that would not only trump the Bulldogs, but wouldn't be ridiculously one sided in favour of GWS.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:31 pm 
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Garry Crane
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The Rhino wrote:
Why pick 1? Why sell the farm, when we can realistically pick up 3 good kids in the top 20 for even less?

Boyd isn't the be all and end all, and when depth is an issue, selling 2-3 players for one doesn't seem like the best piece of business.


It is horses for courses, and our course at the moment does NOT have a Key Position Forward who looks like being a Coleman medal contender anytime in the next 5 years. People might throw out the example of Sydney being able to win a flag without a single dominant forward which is true, but guess who they picked up in the trade period last year? A single dominant forward! And they WON the bloody flag!

We desperately, desperately need to secure a big, 60 goal per year, contested marking and hard leading big bodied genuine forward. Not a fwd/ruck. Not a 28 year old WAFL bloke who did OK. The real deal.

I reckon we need to do it fast and if we don't sell the farm to get it, we will never make it to the level of a 'dominating team' in the next few years.

My in-laws sold their (fourth generation family) farm a few years back and bought a bed and breakfast. They turned their finances around big time and have been hugely successful. Don't be too afraid to pull the trigger on the farm when it is necessary!

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:35 pm 
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formerly cj69

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as much as I would love to get Boyd. It's about so much more.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:37 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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Best players last night: Judd (by a mile), McLean, Henderson

Says it all really.

None were drafted by Carlton.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:38 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Look at the options available in the draft beyond Boyd.

Yes, Boyd is the best available, but would say if Joe Daniher circa last year, for example were in this draft, he'd go ahead of Boyd.

Hourigan, Harvey, Marsh, McCarthy, Herbert, Fort are all fairly decent options. Hourigan, Marsh, McCarthy (depending on how clubs view his injury) should all go top 30.

I don't mind the idea of a key forward with an early pick, but geez, he's not THAT great.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:44 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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sstormin123 wrote:
Best players last night: Judd (by a mile), McLean, Henderson

Says it all really.

None were drafted by Carlton.


Lucas was our best.

Judd got it but wasted a lot.
McLean was pretty constant. Didn't look good with Swan running away from him, though.
Hendo did OK but he can't play both ends of the ground at once.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:48 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 6:11 pm
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sstormin123 wrote:
Best players last night: Judd (by a mile), McLean, Henderson

Says it all really.

None were drafted by Carlton.

You cant base that on one game's best players. I thought Lucas was in our best 3.
previous games our best have been Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, etc.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:48 pm 
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Garry Crane
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The Rhino wrote:

I don't mind the idea of a key forward with an early pick, but geez, he's not THAT great.


Mate I agree with you.

My view is that the position needs to be filled; if it isn't Boyd, it needs to be someone else and I think we are going to have to give up something significant to get it.

As you say, we need to be very astute with our draft selections to get some high potential players elsewhere around the ground too. In my opinion, the priority of effort needs to be that KPF spot first though. Hopefully, we don't lose too many high draft picks to do so.

Yarran, Warnock and second round pick to GWS for pick #1 maybe.

Maybe we pull the trigger on Andrew Walker as a trade to a club to gain another first round pick? He would be a big loss but isn't a key position player and might be worth the hurt. He has high value at the moment with his performance this year, and probably yesteryear when he was up forward. There would surely be a team out there that would give up a bit to have him. Just throwing ideas out for discussion here.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:49 pm 
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formerly cj69

Joined: Sun May 03, 2009 9:52 am
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Blue Sombrero wrote:
sstormin123 wrote:
Best players last night: Judd (by a mile), McLean, Henderson

Says it all really.

None were drafted by Carlton.


Lucas was our best.

Judd got it but wasted a lot.
McLean was pretty constant. Didn't look good with Swan running away from him, though.
Hendo did OK but he can't play both ends of the ground at once.


Lucas ran hard but made a lot of mistakes
McLean got thrashed defensively and was a liability. Slow with disposal
Hendo good early then poor
IMO Kruezer probably our best 4 qtr player and thats not saying a lot.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:56 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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ShanDog wrote:
The Rhino wrote:
Why pick 1? Why sell the farm, when we can realistically pick up 3 good kids in the top 20 for even less?

Boyd isn't the be all and end all, and when depth is an issue, selling 2-3 players for one doesn't seem like the best piece of business.


It is horses for courses, and our course at the moment does NOT have a Key Position Forward who looks like being a Coleman medal contender anytime in the next 5 years. People might throw out the example of Sydney being able to win a flag without a single dominant forward which is true, but guess who they picked up in the trade period last year? A single dominant forward! And they WON the bloody flag!

We desperately, desperately need to secure a big, 60 goal per year, contested marking and hard leading big bodied genuine forward. Not a fwd/ruck. Not a 28 year old WAFL bloke who did OK. The real deal.

I reckon we need to do it fast and if we don't sell the farm to get it, we will never make it to the level of a 'dominating team' in the next few years.

My in-laws sold their (fourth generation family) farm a few years back and bought a bed and breakfast. They turned their finances around big time and have been hugely successful. Don't be too afraid to pull the trigger on the farm when it is necessary!


Depending what it means by 'selling the farm', use the right rhetoric so it goes down the easiest. :wink:

It is horses for courses, I'm far from sold on the 'draft a backman, send Henderson forward' idea. And the 'wait till next year' scenario keeps getting put back until we break. It could be a win if we could trade for the number 1 pick and keep our first rounder.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:01 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni
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bondiblue wrote:
ThePsychologist wrote:
Rexy wrote:
Yarran and Warnock for Patton.


Sold


I'm sold too....don't think it'll work though.


happy to add sugar as a sweetener


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:02 pm 
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formerly cj69

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Rexy wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
ThePsychologist wrote:
Rexy wrote:
Yarran and Warnock for Patton.


Sold


I'm sold too....don't think it'll work though.


happy to add sugar as a sweetener


:grin:

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:05 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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Rexy wrote:
bondiblue wrote:
ThePsychologist wrote:
Rexy wrote:
Yarran and Warnock for Patton.


Sold


I'm sold too....don't think it'll work though.


happy to add sugar as a sweetener


Selling the farm!

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:07 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:17 pm
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King Kenny wrote:
kezza wrote:
After a restless night sleep this is what i would do;
Delist;
Collins, Rowe, O'Keefe, McCarthy, Davies, Duigan, Joseph
Retired; Scotland
Trade;
Warnock, Laidler, Yarran (only for a good offer).
I would keep Watson (if he wants to stay) and Mitchell as we have very little KPP depth

This would free up 8 spots.
Go after a free agent and not concentrate just on a player like Daisy but a lesser known who wont cost as much in terms of salary cap space.
We dont have a good group of kids coming through, we havent had a Rising Star nomination for years.
This is a pretty good draft from all accounts so stock up on kids, especialy mid fielders.

There is no quick fix, it will take years to clean up the mess.




Add Curnow, Bell to delist. Both aren't good enough to play in a top 4 side. To many flaws.

Add Hampson to trade list. Pick some mature ruck as a backup to Kreuzer.

Add Betts to free agent lost. My gut feeling.

Keep McCarthy as we lack KP depth and need some cover. The kid also hasn't been given a chance at senior level yet to see if he can handle it. By chance I mean at least 4-5 games. Same applies to Mitchell.


Unfortunately, Hampson has no trade value.

Needs to be Kreuzer or Warnock.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:11 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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ShanDog wrote:
Mate I agree with you.

My view is that the position needs to be filled; if it isn't Boyd, it needs to be someone else and I think we are going to have to give up something significant to get it.

As you say, we need to be very astute with our draft selections to get some high potential players elsewhere around the ground too. In my opinion, the priority of effort needs to be that KPF spot first though. Hopefully, we don't lose too many high draft picks to do so.


Check out Hourigan's game for SA from Wednesday. Should be still on the AFL website. Takes a great grab, can kick, smart footballer, and most of all, seems like a right shit of a kid. Loved giving it to his opponent and getting in their face.

Probably isn't a 60 goal a year forward, but 40 a year is certainly a reasonable expectation. I reckon we could get him for about pick 12-14 (as I mentioned, Freo would take him with their first pick). We could get that for Yarran, or Warnock and an upgrade of our first pick. Not all 3 as we would for Boyd. And we'd still have our first pick to spend on Gardiner or a half decent midfielder.

Quote:
Yarran, Warnock and second round pick to GWS for pick #1 maybe.


It's still 3 players for one. Which do you think is the bigger issue? The lack of good forward, or that our list tends to die in the arse after about player 24?

Quote:
Maybe we pull the trigger on Andrew Walker as a trade to a club to gain another first round pick? He would be a big loss but isn't a key position player and might be worth the hurt. He has high value at the moment with his performance this year, and probably yesteryear when he was up forward. There would surely be a team out there that would give up a bit to have him. Just throwing ideas out for discussion here.


Like it, if the offer is good enough. Pick 9 for Walker would be a good deal.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:21 pm 
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formerly Virgin Blue

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Anyone 26+ should be tradable


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