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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 4:07 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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blueman wrote:
Chris Scott is Geelong's new young couch - following previous flags won by Mark Thompson.

Port Adelaide look foolish in this - The selection of Primus and rejection of Scott was his lucky break.

As for Carlton - we may follow a similar pattern to that of Geelong, Thompson and now Scott..

I read somewhere that there have been 13 premiership winning first year AFL / VFL coaches.

So premiership winning rookie Carlton coach has multiple precedents.


In fact, Brighton Diggins was a rookie coach at Carlton in 1938,

Alan Joyce at Hawthorn comes to mind here - But does anyone know the others ?


I think Chris Scott might object to being sat on.

However, my point was that Ratts is no longer the new young coach. In fact, I'm sure you said there would be a change from Ratts to a new young coach ...as well as a major war..at the time we win our next flag. almost certain you predicted it would not be Ratts coaching. (Almost, and too lazy to back check.)
Anyway, I hope Ratts will still be coaching when we win that flag.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 6:03 pm 
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Rod Ashman

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I said that we will win a flag with a new young coach.

But I have made it clear that while it might be - this will not necessarily be the next flag.

The fact that we have a group of players that are capable of winning more than one premiership with one or more of these with the current coach is something that has to be allowed for.

Which is why I was careful to do state things in this way.

The next oil war is likely to have a major destabilising effect on the middle east and possibly also Russia.

If Pakistan is invaded or attacked - the destabilisation will also include China.

Therefore the next conflict will only be the start of a series of new wars.

So the major war background to a and change of coach scenario is clearly a distinct possibility.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 6:25 pm 
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Stephen Silvagni
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bluegirl72 wrote:
blueman wrote:
Chris Scott is Geelong's new young couch - following previous flags won by Mark Thompson.

Port Adelaide look foolish in this - The selection of Primus and rejection of Scott was his lucky break.

As for Carlton - we may follow a similar pattern to that of Geelong, Thompson and now Scott..

I read somewhere that there have been 13 premiership winning first year AFL / VFL coaches.

So premiership winning rookie Carlton coach has multiple precedents.


In fact, Brighton Diggins was a rookie coach at Carlton in 1938,

Alan Joyce at Hawthorn comes to mind here - But does anyone know the others ?


I think Chris Scott might object to being sat on.

However, my point was that Ratts is no longer the new young coach. In fact, I'm sure you said there would be a change from Ratts to a new young coach ...as well as a major war..at the time we win our next flag. almost certain you predicted it would not be Ratts coaching. (Almost, and too lazy to back check.)
Anyway, I hope Ratts will still be coaching when we win that flag.


Yep....if Chris Scott's the new Couch....I wonder how Paul feels about that; after all; he did win a Brownlow at Geelong......... :razz:

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 6:49 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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We are certainly narrowing things down; I'll be getting excited when our coach is either new and young or not..

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:55 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Astounding! :grin:

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 4:14 pm 
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Rod Ashman

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It was probably a bit more astounding when I was saying these things in 2003.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:35 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Link?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:45 am 
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Rod Ashman

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Those comments were initially made on Talking Carlton's predecessor - The Blue View.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:40 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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The Rhino wrote:
Link?


Here's a link I found..re posting it here in case you missed it.

blueman wrote:
Thompson is as good as a done deal to the bombers - in a director of coaching kind of role.

All of this was pretty much pre determined football theatre

Carlton will be best served by thinking about a new, young untried coach - when the time comes.

Ratten still has some work to do.
He will contribute developing the list up to a certain point

Beyond which the new young coach will step onto the main stage.


Sure sounds like you don't think Ratts will be the coach when we win the flag.

Here's another quote taken from 'Ratts Future.'

blueman wrote:
Ratten is decent, honest and very good - but events conspire against him.

So the new young coach is the one that brings us the 17th.

He will appear to most as a rather uninspired choice.

But he will have special qualities that are at first, only known to a few.


and another taken from WB V Carlton

Quote:
Ratten will take us so far but no further

and, from the topic 'Greg Williams on Brett Ratten'.

Quote:
I would like to see Brett Ratten as the next premiership coach too.

But I think that there will be a sudden and unexpected turn of events that prevents this from occurring.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 7:36 am 
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Rod Ashman

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These events could still occur.

But if they were experienced - it would mean that season 2012 failed to meet expectations and this resulted in Ratten being terminated before the end of his contract.

I feel that a more optimistic view of our future is a more likely future at this point.

Dont you ?

There is more than one way in which a premiership winning new young coach could come.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 7:48 am 
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Craig Bradley
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Experienced coaches such as?

You wouldn't just be being deliberately vague given its highly likely that if Ratten were sacked, they'd be replaced by an experienced coach rather than an untried guy?

Been reading the John Edward playbook?

I'm getting a feeling the new coach....will have probably played senior AFL before...or will have come close to it......and it will be a shocking appointment....I'm feeling there's a vowel in his name....or it at least sounds like there is? Does this sound familiar to anyone in the audience? He says he left his club in rather....acrimonious circumstances?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:51 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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I think we all have a go at predicting, and a lot of the time we are wrong.
We are, after all, only human.
Sometimes, when an intuitve flash or hunch is bang on, that's a great feeling. It's also good to be able to have a laugh at ourselves when we miss the mark. (so to speak.)

As I remembered you Blueman, definitely predicting that Ratts would not be the 17th flag coach, it irked me when you suddenly said we'd get that flag this year, and then tried to make Ratts fit in to your old predictions. I think the old quotes I found, pretty much show you that is true.

Like you, I hope we win this year. I am a big fan of Ratts as he loves our club so much, and I hope it is him. :smile:

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:15 am 
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Rod Ashman

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There was certainly no joy on my part in suggesting that Ratten departs unexpectedly - I want him to be successful..

However this could still occur.

This would mean that we would have a bad 2012 season, Ratten is judged as the scapegoat for this outcome and is sacked.

This is something for which there is no indication at the moment. But stranger things have happened.

The other factor is that I have thought for a long time that the 17th was won during a war - and with the current Iranian situation as it is - this is in my view more likely than our 2012 season turning sour and Ratten being shafted..

This is why on balance I said what I did

The other obvious scenario that allows for all factors is that Ratts wins a flag or two and is then replaced by the new young coach in the same way as has occurred at Geelong. In this way, he still leaves, is replaced and wins a flag in the meantime.

It is rather the same situation but on a different level with Setanta O'Hailpin - I said that he would depart unexpectedly on this forum - and I happily thought that I was wrong on that right up to the end of the 2011 season.

Sadly, I was correct.

I did not want him to leave, but I felt that he somehow would.

Sometimes the issue is one of timing.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:26 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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Blueman,

I am a believer and a follower of your prophecy's. Keep up your good work.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:34 am 
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Rod Ashman

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If you think of a bunch of outcomes that you believe will come to pass, but these outcomes have no dates attached to them, so you cannot accurately place them in time, then this is the situation I which I sense.

You have to carefully look at the pieces that you have and then logically construct a scenario based on the clues that you can see.

Sometimes this might mean building a couple of possible scenarios.

None of us know the future, but some have a few bits and pieces on the table to work with.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:57 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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Correct again. It is like one big jigsaw puzzle.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 7:41 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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So sometime in the future we will win no.17 and it will be with a new or an old coach

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:21 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Setanta left unexpectedly? I think we all thought it quite possible.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:51 am 
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Bruce Doull
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Quite PLAUSIBLE even.........!


kindest regards tommi

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:04 am 
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Stephen Kernahan
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I think Setanta was in the gun for all of last year and his thread reflects that. No marks for claiming that was any more than probable.

You should watch 'the Mentalist'. 'Predicting the future' is not possible. Putting together a possible scenario based on known facts and probabilities may lead to an acceptable strike rate. Anyone who has done a formal decision-making course or taught one, knows how to minimise probable risks and maximise probable outcomes by studyng the present situation.

We have been in a constant state of war since 1990 in the middle east, Timor, the Soloman Islands and some African countries. If you don't think so, ask the soldiers who have fought there or 'kept the peace'. The 'situation with Iran', backed by Russia is no different from 'the situation' with North Korea's nuclear ambitions, backed by China, which, by the way is still at war with South Korea (they signed a truce, never rescinding the declaration of war from 1952ish). So one might say that we have won almost ALL our premierships during time of war. Certainly the last half of them.
1945 WWII
1968, 70, 72 Vietnam
79, 81-82 the Cold War in Europe
87 Iran/Iraq but that might have been 1988 we certainly sent UN observers to watch the shells flying about that time.
95 the Gulf Wars.

The world is in an unstable state, especially with the Arab nations looking for a change to their systems of government or rule by decree. They are traditionally fiefdoms but in this age of western democracy and electronic information, trying to keep people under the thumb bu preventing them from getting educated and having access to the country's wealth is getting more difficult. The rich African countries where the president gets the oil royalties are similar, which is why we have so many refugees from there. The people as we say, 'are revolting'. So I am going to take out my crystal ball and predict the future too.

There will be no meaningful peace in the Middle East or North Africa in my lifetime.
Carlton will have the opportunity to win a premiership in my lifetime.
Brett Rattan will not be the coach of Carlton forever.

How am I going so far?

Therefore, It is possible Carlton will win a premiership during a time of war during the next ten years without Brett Rattan as coach.

Call me the new Nostradamus. Or Blueman. Or Patrick Jane for that matter.

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