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I think Rhino has a bit of a point here. Sharp statistical readouts are never going to provide a clear picture on such a broad question. In essence Brizzy, you have answered this question by saying "with a little more luck, we could have already won one!"
While that's a nice thing to hear, I doubt any of the people down at CFC being paid wads of cash for on-field results really want to be settling for an arm swing and an 'aww shucks' to describe their season. So why don't we look at factors that reduce the probability of poor match day preparations in the event of hiccups that inevitably occur throughout the season.
The idea here is to look at how comfortably we can call on players outside our 'best 22'.
Let's start with physical attributes:
Players significantly above average speed for their position: Judd, Walker, Betts, Yarran, Bower, Hampson, Garlett, Waite, Jamison, Lucas, Armfield, Joseph, Buckley, Carter, McInnes, McCarthy, Bell, Davies, Tuohy, Kreuzer
Total - 20
Players significantly below average speed for their position: O'Keeffe, McLean, White, Collins, Ellard, Watson
Total - 6
At this point it's important to note that while speed isn't everything, it is a factor, and something whereby we can regard our list as being positively skewed, with a number of players possessing exciting pace, and a limited number possessing concrete boots. I'm going to ignore agility and tackle breaking rankings as they are much more difficult to quantify and put down to a singular attribute as athleticism is not the sole determinant of evasive ability.
Players significantly above average endurance for their position: Simpson, Henderson, Kreuzer, Lucas, Collins, Bower, Judd, Murphy, McInnes, Armfield, Bell, Scotland, Waite, Davies, Thornton, Curnow, Joseph, Ellard, Carter, Carrazzo, Walker, Jamison, Garlett
Total - 23
Players significantly below average endurance for their position: O'Keeffe, Buckley, Watson, Kerr, Casboult, Bray, Lodge
Total - 7
Again, positively skewed, and little to worry about in the below average category due to the tender age of many listed.
Players significantly above average height for their position: Warnock, Lucas, Gibbs, Judd, Watson, McCarthy, Walker, Davies, Rowe, Mitchell, Casboult, Robinson, Carrazzo, Russell, McInnes, Bell, Bray, Henderson
Total - 18
Players significantly below average height for their position: Betts
Total - 1
Again, we are positively skewed.
Players significantly above average strength for their position: Carrazzo, McLean, Yarran, Betts, Laidler, Jamison, Duigan, Murphy, Judd, Kreuzer, Hampson, Curnow, Waite, Russell, Robinson, Davies, Joseph, Tuohy, Scotland, Rowe, Casboult, Bell, White, Watson
Total - 24
Players significantly below average strength for their position: Collins, Buckley, Bootsma, McCarthy, Carter, Bray, Dale, Garlett
Total - 8
Not a lot in the normal band, which helps offset the slightly high number of 'weak' players.
Players with significantly above average foot skills for their position: Laidler, Jamison, Gibbs, Yarran, Lucas, Simpson, Murphy, Henderson, Scotland, Garlett, Walker, Tuohy, Warnock, Kerr, Kreuzer, Bootsma, Buckley, Collins, O'Keeffe, Lodge, Watson, Betts, Robinson
Total - 23
Players with significantly below average foot skills for their position: Joseph, Duigan, Davies, Carrazzo, Casboult
Total - 5
Again, positively skewed.
Now let's collate that information into a few categories so that we get a sense of the quality of players on our list. Top shelf players will obviously have experience under their belt (I've set 40+ games as the criterion) and meet one of the following sets of criteria:
- Above average in 3 of the above 5 categories with no below average results
- 4 above average and maximum 1 below average
- The perfect 5
The next rung down that we'll want in the team contributing will have:
- Any who qualify for the top tier, save for meeting the minimum games experience
- 3 above average with one being foot skills, maximum 1 below average
- 2 above average with one being foot skills, none below average
Experience is also valued in the second rung, but less important.
If we can have more than 14 players in these categories, then we know on an average day we can beat just about any team with all 14 running around. If we have 20 or more, then we can beat just about anyone on any given day because we'll generally be able to cover for all but the worst-case scenarios. Within that 14 minimum, we'd probably want upwards of 6 in the top category I've made.
Again, note that my ranks have been about those in the exceptional category within AFL standards. I have done this purely through the use of my own judgement, and accept that there may be bias, but we can certainly discuss that and shift the numbers around in discussion.
Without further ado (denotes above average footskills for position):
First tier:
Perfect 5:
None
4 above average, 0 below average:
Jamison ('knock' is height)
Walker ('knock' is strength)
Judd ('knock' is kicking)
Kreuzer ('knock' is height)
Waite ('knock' is height)
3 above average, 0 below average:
Murphy
Hampson
Robinson
Yarran
Scotland
Henderson
4 above average, 1 below average:
None
Total - 11
Off to a great start, minimum met just in the top category and all bar one possess elite/near-elite foot skills for their position. For those who question my selection of Hampson, he's quick, he's strong and he's an above average field kick for a ruckman, as is Kreuzer.
It's important to note at this point that I have not properly graded football IQ, which would possibly have some of these players drop down and others rise up in terms of importance. It also shows how the strength of some attributes can paper over the poor or mediocre others that can sometimes prevent players from becoming elite despite flashes of brilliance.
Second tier:
4 above average, none below average, not enough experience:
Lucas ('knock' is strength)
Bell ('knock' is foot skills)
3 above average, none below average, not enough experience:
McInnes
Tuohy
4 above average, 1 below average, not enough experience:
None
2 above average, 1 of these being kicking skills:
Gibbs
Simpson
Warnock
Laidler
3 above average, 1 of these being kicking skills, 1 below average:
Betts
Garlett
Total - 10
So we exceed the magic number of 20, with an even split of first and second tier types. I think this helps reflect the increasing quality in our list, but obviously doesn't touch on the depth and potential we feel exists in the second half of it. This also highlights the potential of Lucas, Bell, Tuohy & McInnes. Perhaps another category to be included could be vertical leap, which would move Simpson & Gibbs into the top tier. There are plenty of names who are a shade or two off making this list, but the following are the notables:
Carrazzo, Davies & Joseph miss out as they miss out on the same category as Betts & Garlett due to a lack of foot skills despite 3 positive attributes to outweigh this flaw. This obviously fits neatly as a category for good AFL-level utilities. Armfield misses out for similar reasons, as while he has no knocks, he lacks the necessary combination of elite kicking, height or strength.
Ellard obviously has a knock for being noticeably slow for his regular position, but he also lacks a lot of stand-out attributes, something I have mentioned with dulling regularity on this forum. This is similar to Duigan, who is strong for his size, and actually has decent straight line speed, but despite his composure and intelligence in his play, can get caught looking silly given the narrow band of players he can compete with athletically.
This leaves Bower, Thornton & Russell. Bower & Thornton possess elite endurance for their size, Bower also having elite speed, and both have elite decision making skills in certain areas that push them into AFL ranks, but both lack that elite kick that could put them into another category. Neither have a knock against them, which holds them in good stead for regular football (more so Bower who could kick on in a couple of categories). Finally, Russell lacks elite level speed or skills to set him apart from the middle band of the AFL talent pool.
So what has this long chunk of text shown us? From a basic analytical stand point, 50% of the players on the list are expected to win their position on game day. Fill a team with those names and you have something special.
_________________
29 different attributes,
And only 7 that you like;
20 ways to see the world,
Or 20 ways to start a fight.
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