Slow Monday of conference calls, so here's my 50 cents... Of the guaranteed core group of players, the age is probably just right for a tilt at the flag with many players coming into 'peak age' and a few on the cusp of exiting it (Judd included, but he might be an exception into his 30s ala Robert Harvey). You'd suggest there's probably a 3 year window from next season to take a flag (or 3) and be a dominant force in the league.
B: Joseph (22.5), Jamison (25.5), Laidler (22.5) HB: Duigan (27.5), Henderson (22), Yarran (21)
Thoughts - Still quite a young backline. Scotland (32.5) might be a good sub if the rule stays the same, how many years left in those legs? Armfield (25), Davies (21) is in the bottom 6 of the playing group and I wouldn't consider him in the starting 22 unless he improves in leaps and bounds.
C: Judd (28.5), Carrazzo (28), Gibbs (23), Murphy (24.5), Simpson (28), Ellard (23), Robinson (23)
These core group have a question in terms of support and as many have mentioned, a chop out for Judd. Scotland of course adds grunt but is getting older and seems to play better as a loose man. Armfield has shown he can be handy as link man and his disposal has improved heaps. Touhy (22) seems like he could be used in the stoppages than in defence and I love the way he goes about it. It has to be time for Lucas (20.5) to step up. McLean (26) has plenty of years in him and dominates VFL, but can't seem to be the Luke Ball type player that Carlton needs. Walker (26) has shown he can be handy in the middle, too. It's clear that one more player is needed ongoing. Curnow (23) had a good cameo, but his VFL form hasn't been elite. He's still young with limited AFL game time, and you'd give him benefit of the doubt that he is going to get better.
Rucks: Warnock (25), Kreuzer (23), Hampson (24)
Based off Warnock's late season form, he is a lock for number one ruck and 2012 might be his year of dominance. Kreuzer's return from injury year is behind him and with a full preseason (assuming his foot doesnt need amputation) should see him ready to go. So that leaves Hampson. Could he and Kruezer develop into power marking forwards? Hampson showed in a few games this year he could do it. The other situation is that he could be used as part of a trade, especially if they are looking for a stay at home forward. Hampson to Collingwood to replace an ageing Jolly in exchange for Dawes?
F: Betts (25), MISSING LINK, Walker (26) HF: Garlett (23), Waite (29), Thornton (28)
I've purposely left a big gap at FF as that's a clear issue. Kreuzer, Hampson are they the answer? Thornton seems to have revived his career up forward and especially given he has a great pair of mits, O'hAilpin (29) seems to have reached the top of his bell curve and may be surplus to requirements and is definitely not a premiership forward. His ground level work is non existent and he has lost a heap of pace (what little he may have had). Henderson and Jamison could potentially swing forward for spells but are a lock in the back line. Casboult (22) has played reasonable football in the VFL and should be reaching an age where he is ready. He looks to have lost a lot of the puppy fat. Is he capable? At this stage you'd have to say Mitchell (20) is still an unknown as he has to actually lace up his boots and get out on the park.
Fringe:
Austin (23) seems gone, but he looked alright in the VFL. There may just not be a spot for him in the team. Bower (24) seems on his way out. Possible trade? Bray (19.5) unsure of how he has progressed in development Cachia (21) doesn't look like getting a chance at Carlton. More astute observers will know more. Carter (20.5) does he have what it takes to push for a crowded midfield spot? Collins (23) had the most un-Carlton like debuts and then was out for the season. I'd expect him to be given another year (maybe he's already contracted) and shouldn't be written off yet, but is not a missing link solution. Dare (20) good attack on the ball, is he a Laidler type? Similar height and weight at the same age. Houlihan (30) had a great career and showed in the VFL that he can still play a development role in VFL list. Maybe he'll be retained in such a role if he's interested. Kerr (20) I like what I've seen of Kerr. What do the more astute observers think? McCarthy (20) another year on the list for development McInnes (20) another year on the list O'Keefe (21.5) Doesn't seem to be able to make the grade for AFL, but he's still pretty young and has a bit of bulk on him. Russell (25) Talk about a fall from grace. From being a key part of the resurgence last year to no-mans-land in 2011. What's happened to Jordan? Twomey (26) I may be alone but I liked the two games Twomey played. Maybe he's too old but he has a big frame and seems to be able to play a bustling type of player. Watson (19.5) He draws a bit of malign around these parts but he's still under 20 and he clearly has ability. Should develop nicely, hope he doesn't become one of those players that people pin all of our problems on. White (24) In watching the VFL finals I thought White looked good to be honest. He can punch the ball a mile in contests and while he lacks polish I think he's a decent bruiser of a defender. Is pushing for the 7th or 8th spot in the back line, but I wouldn't write him off yet.
I notice Jon Ralph puts Russell, Hampson, Lucas and Bower on the trade table. I wouldn't want to see Lucas go he should be about to mature in the next season or two and post the Judd era there will be a need for players like him.
Well there's my too-much-time analysis. I still think the Blues are one KPF and a Judd-chop out away from a Premiership, and that window is in 2012/13 with 14 dependent on who is around still.
Make it happen Ratten.
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