We'll be fifth, bring on the lowlifes!!!

Humpers · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 5:28 pm **Posts:** 4941

TheSwan wrote:

Also, the % between Sydney and Ess is too great. We will either play North or Ess in week one at the G.

Yep and no doubt we will be stuck with the Sunday match - so should we win there will only be a 6 day break before playing the West Coast at Subi.

Hotcox · **Posted:** Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:23 pm

Normally the top ranked team plays on the Sunday.

Here is how i would schedule the 1st week of the finals.

Fri night - Geelong vs Hawthorn (MCG)
Sat arvo - Carl vs Ess (MCG)
Sat night - St k vs Syd (Etihad)
Sun - Coll vs WC (MCG)

The Spornstar · **Posted:** Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:40 pm

I was just using the ladder predictor and if St Kilda win next week, it seems like our game will be literally a dead rubber for both sides. Am I correct in my calculations there?

nck · **Posted:** Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:59 pm

Hotcox wrote:

Normally the top ranked team plays on the Sunday.

Here is how i would schedule the 1st week of the finals.

Fri night - Geelong vs Hawthorn (MCG)
Sat arvo - Carl vs Ess (MCG)
Sat night - St k vs Syd (Etihad)
Sun - Coll vs WC (MCG)

The AFL made it clear last year that from now on the two Qualifying finals will be Friday and Saturday nights. 2 v 3 on Friday night, 1 v 4 on Sat night

The Spornstar · **Posted:** Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:44 pm

Looking at the draw, I would say this is the chance of playing each side in week 1 of the finals:

Essendon* 40%

Sydney 30%

North 22%

St Kilda 7%

Freo 1%

(I realise some of the following is already discussed in the thread) Us playing Sydney depends on percentage, but it's not an unlikely scenario. I have them losing by 60 to Geelong and winning by 30 against the Lions, and Essendon* winning by 100 against Port. That gives Essendon* a 0.6% advantage.

If St Kilda wins against North next week, as far as I can tell our game against the Saints is a dead rubber for both sides. Our opponent could change based on other results, but ours and St Kilda's positions won't.

So basically if St Kilda win against North, we will play Essendon* unless Essendon* make up enough percentage on Sydney, as per the description above.

It's a bit murkier if North beats St Kilda. If that happens, we will play Essendon* if St Kilda beat us, UNLESS Essendon* make up percentage on Sydney as per the description above, in which case we play Sydney. If we win though, we will play North (at the MCG), and St Kilda will miss out, assuming North beat Richmond. I think the only way we play St Kilda is if they lose to North, lose to us, but then North lose to Richmond on the last day of the home and away season.

Freo can still make it but I put their chances of making at at about 1%.

Navy Blue Horse · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 2:39 pm **Posts:** 15848

The Spornstar wrote:

I think the only way we play St Kilda is if they lose to North, lose to us, but then North lose to Richmond on the last day of the home and away season.

That sentence made my head spin :lol:

SurreyBlue · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 8:32 am **Posts:** 10575

The Spornstar wrote:

I think the only way we play St Kilda is if they lose to North, lose to us, but then North lose to Richmond on the last day of the home and away season.

Or if StKilda lose to North & us and Essendon* lose to Port, North beat StKilda/Richmond & Sydney beat Brisbane but lose to Geelong. :razz:

Donstuie · **Posted:** Sun Aug 21, 2011 9:10 pm

:Scanners gif:

missnaut · **Posted:** Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:42 am

Carlton deserves an MCG final

Quote:

At the pre-match dinner at Etihad _ or Carlton's house of horrors _ Carlton chief executive Greg Swann casually inquired to AFL boss Andrew Demetriou about the Blues playing their first final at the MCG.

Demetriou was non-committal, although other inquiries yesterday to the AFL revealed the Blues would not be favoured in the scheduling of the first week of finals, despite them finishing in the fifth spot.

The Blues believed they might be rewarded for leading the ''next'' bunch of teams - and a fair enough belief, too.
They have since learnt they won't be, but it won't matter.

In a nutshell:

North have to win both games to make the 8. Lose next week and they're going to be 9th.

The games to watch are Essendon* v Port and Sydney v Geelong. Sydney are 7% clear of Essendon* right now. The Swans will simply not want to get flogged.

The Spornstar · **Posted:** Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:47 am

Robbo clearly hasn't done his homework on that article. As mentioned in a few posts above, we could still very conceivably play at Etihad if Essendon* makes up the require percentage on Sydney.

dane · **Joined:** Tue Mar 08, 2005 10:14 am **Posts:** 22357

Essendon* first week is a lock IMO.
MCG - 95k

Navy Blue Horse · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 2:39 pm **Posts:** 15848

The Spornstar wrote:

Robbo clearly hasn't done his homework on that article. As mentioned in a few posts above, we could still very conceivably play at Etihad if Essendon* makes up the require percentage on Sydney.

Robbo the Drunk wrote:

If the Swans had lost yesterday and ended up eighth, Etihad would have been the likely venue for their first-week final against the Blues.

Hornet · **Joined:** Sat May 21, 2005 5:15 pm **Posts:** 7360

dane wrote:

Essendon* first week is a lock IMO.
MCG - 95k

Yep, is now.

No pressure...

SnickerS · **Joined:** Thu Dec 07, 2006 8:35 pm **Posts:** 1472

Hornet wrote:

dane wrote:

Essendon* first week is a lock IMO.
MCG - 95k

Yep, is now.

No pressure...

How do u figure it being a lock?

North win tonight and next week (tiges) and they finish 8th.

camel · **Posted:** Sat Aug 27, 2011 4:49 pm

Well, the Swans beat Geelong. Perhaps it's week (or two of upsets). If West Coast lose both games and we beat the Saints it'll be Coll v Carl and 100K+. :lol:

Hornet · **Joined:** Sat May 21, 2005 5:15 pm **Posts:** 7360

SnickerS wrote:

Hornet wrote:

dane wrote:

Essendon* first week is a lock IMO.
MCG - 95k

Yep, is now.

No pressure...

How do u figure it being a lock?

North win tonight and next week (tiges) and they finish 8th.

Swans won and puts them 10 pts ahead...

Essendon* win against Port and they maintain a 6 point lead going into rd 24

It's a lock...

Edit: you correct re. Norf - Will require us not tanking (resting players) the Aints game...

missnaut · **Posted:** Sat Aug 27, 2011 4:59 pm

C'mon Port!

:lol:

Navy Blue Horse · **Joined:** Mon Feb 28, 2005 2:39 pm **Posts:** 15848

Several possibilities still.

eg. Roos beat Saints, then lose to Tigers, we play Saints in week 1.

Blues Forever · **Posted:** Sat Aug 27, 2011 5:06 pm

Let's assume it's Coll v WC (MCG), Geel v Haw (MCG), Carl v Ess (MCG) and Syd v STK (ANZ). Would we be put on the Friday night??? I have been waiting 10 years for an MCG final and I work friday nights :sad:

Hornet · **Joined:** Sat May 21, 2005 5:15 pm **Posts:** 7360

Blues Forever wrote:

Let's assume it's Coll v WC (MCG), Geel v Haw (MCG), Carl v Ess (MCG) and Syd v STK (ANZ). Would we be put on the Friday night??? I have been waiting 10 years for an MCG final and I work friday nights :sad:

Sickie...

We'll be fifth, bring on the lowlifes!!!

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