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- I work hard, because millions on welfare depend on me -

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/s ... 6110940877

If you have already backed Chris Judd, just collect it now and back Murph each way.

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“Before you criticise someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticise them, you're a mile a way and you have their shoes."

This is a great example of the value of the comments section under Hun articles.... One of the smartest comments I have ever seen by a Filth supporter followed directly by one of the most rediculous.

Are people seriously that biased to think that Judd doesn't deserve a Brownlow for his performances over the course of this year? (Or any other year for that matter?)

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"If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself" - Henry Ford

Not spontaneous, he'd have tissues and hand lotion ready in his suit pocket.

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"One of my favorite philosophical tenets is that people will agree with you only if they already agree with you. You do not change people's minds." - Frank Zappa

The betting houses surely do it for publicity also

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"I had to eat"

I reckon there'll be a "correction" this year, Juddy will miss a few votes he should get.

Pendlebury at $7 while Judd's odds on - silly.

Well thats the other reason they do it, so people will reinvest their winnings in other markets. There's obviously a formula they run depending on the size of the winnings to decide.

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"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent." Qui-Gon Jinn 15-05-2005

"there’s more chance of me becoming the full forward for the [Western Bulldogs] than there is of any change in the Labor Party." Julia Gillard 18-05-2010

Yep, despite being massive favourite don't reckon Judd will win again - too much uproar from his win last year will be in the umpires minds.

Dont read anything in regards to Judd online. You'd think he wasn't fit to lace Shane Woewodin's boots, going by the still festering outrage.

The other thing against him is whilst Judd's best is better than pretty much anyone elses, it's still only worth '3 votes' regardless of the fact he might have had 36 touches, 20 contested, 10 tackles, 11 clearences, 7 goal assists etc.

Guys like Cox, Goodes, Mitchell, DalSanto, etc will be racking up votes without anyone taking any notice.

Pendlebury polled well last year, and is having a much better year with Swan on the other hand well down. Collingwood are such a good side, but not an eye catching side, in the fact that you'd miss a lot of their good work 100 metres at ground level + the fact there are no weak links across the 22. Johnson, Sidebottom, Blair, Reid, Toovey types wont poll too many. Didak and Jolly nothing, Shaw missed plenty, Can see Cloke pinching a few, put not much else. The fact they'll get the '3' and '2' in just about every game will hurt as well.

Having said all of that, just give him the medal now.

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"They're [REDACTED]'

Already did during pre-season. Murphy each way at $61!! Only $10 on it though

Whether this counts or not, I am using a Brownlow Tracker app on the iPhone. What I have done, based on Supercoach scores (pretty close to Champion Data rankings), I have entered the best 3 supercoach scores in every game this season in order of 3, 2, 1 votes up to Round 20.
From the Carlton players our Top 4 is:
Murphy = 21 votes
Judd = 17 votes
Gibbs = 11 votes
Scotland = 10 votes

Overall (including other teams) the Top 5 is:
Dal Santo = 22 votes
Pendlebury = 21 votes
Murphy = 21 votes
Cox = 18 votes
Judd = 17 votes

Whether the umpires vote this way is another thing, as Dal Santo has scored high in supercoach in games the Saints have lost, compared to the others mentioned that have been involved in more wins than losses.

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Go Blueboys

The problem with using Champion Data or SuperCoach rankings are that they only give you points based on a Statistic and how that Statistic eventuated.

They don't take into account the impact the player had on the game, whether a percentage of their statistics were with 2 guys hanging off them and them still winning a clearance that resulted in a scoring attempt.

This is why Judd won the Brownlow last year.

I saw the article in the HUN this morning which bleated the bleeding obvious, and how awesome it was that it predicted a Bartel win, an Ablett win and a Cooney Top 3.

In those seasons, even blind Freddy could see that those three players had a massive impact on the games they polled well in. Bartel was the "Judd" of Geelong in his year, Cooney was a hard running, hard ball winning machine in his year (what happened to him since??), and everyone called Ablett the winner from Round 12, because he was absolutely dominant in all aspects of his game.

I think Sam Mitchell is going to be desperately unlucky this year. If there was a market to bet on the highest polling player regardless of winner, you'd put some on this guy. He has been the equal of Judd for the Hawks, and consistently dominated in almost all of their games.

Pendlebury's Round 20 hurts his chances. A surprise if he scrapes into the votes. Swan, Beams, Thomas and Blair are probably ahead of him.

Judd's 3 vs Melbourne I think almost locks it up but only because Mitchell is ineligible. You'd expect Judd to go well back in the West this week. He will probably have a tough time against Hawthorn and St Kilda but you never know.

So... does Judd get to hand the medal to himself if he wins?

Actually a good point to note is that in the year Bartel won, it was actually a bit of a shock to some. A lot of people punted on Ablett because it was the start of his dominance of the competition.

I think Judd is going to be up against it this year - as dont forget you have umpires now not wanting to look like they are favouring Judd (umpires pet etc) - and already this year we have seen Judd cop holdiing the ball decisions that he would not have copped last year.

There are certain umpires who have a "set" against Carlton - Vozzo in particular so you can almost rule out votes for Judd in games that Vozzo has umpired.

And if you dont believe it happens - just look at Round 10, 1993 Greg "Moral Triple Brownlow Medallist" Williams, 44 possessions and no votes thanks to the vindictive Umpire John Russo.

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

Diesel was hardly a gentleman though.

The umpires may ignore Judd after the uproar last year. Or they may act like the stubborn, winey little prats they are,thumb their noses at everyone, and write C Judd next to the 3 week after week.

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"I had to eat"

Neither was John Russo.

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"Hence you will not say that Greeks fight like heroes but that heroes fight like Greeks"?

Winston Churchill

Sarcasm?

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"our electorate seeks less to be informed and more to be validated." Sad times.

FOO should poll well again this year. Murphy and Scotland to a lesser extent will poll votes away.

NB: FOO = Father of Oscar.

Was reading about this recently. Sportsbet often pay out on markets early and quite often they get it wrong with the thing they are paying out on eventually winning or not winning etc. Alot of their punters will reinvest their money like you said TBB and alot of the time give their profit back and they will often finish ahead out of it.

Sportsbet also get a heap of publicity out of it. Pretty much the whole footy world would of heard about it and people would of been scratching their heads. It generates them free publicity, new customers and plenty of traffic.

Its actually pretty genius marketing if you ask me.

OK so the round is nearly done, Judd has been given BOG by most of the media (I would say he was in a group of 4/5 players that had similar claim to votes). I had Gibbs Betts and Murphy up there. Relative inability to clear the ball and free kick count might see him miss or get only 1 vote.

None of the other contenders had 3 vote games (Boyd and Pendles or Swan may get 1).

One less game to play, so you'd think one more classic Juddy game required to make it "safe". But then, the Brownlow is never safe.