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Out: Watson, Joseph, Ellard
In: Austin, Armfield, Tuohy
Sub: Scotland or Yarran
Watson was a fair bit off the pace in my view and that will only be exacerbated against the Dons, who will use their smalls and counter-attack football to expose this as much as possible. Foot skills won't help him if he can't double back, or position himself to respond. Austin is the ideal replacement as he has a better read, more speed and a solid kick on him.
Joseph has improved overhead, runs and competes well but his disposal still lets him down, as does his game sense with and without the ball. You can see the strides he is still making but he needs to tidy up how he moves the ball otherwise he'll need to take more intercepting marks to make up for it. Armfield does all of this and sporadically shows ability with the ball, as well as a much better approach without (although he seemingly cannot combine the two in one game of football).
Ellard has been off the boil for a month now IMO, and other people are starting to come around. I don't see much of the blocking people are banging on about, I just see him getting in the way of things and now unable to work hard enough to provide an option through the middle and provide a kick to or a target for the forward line. Tuohy comes in for him to ensure we have plenty for Austin, Bower & Armfield to run and share with coming out of defence, as well as the athletic attributes to have more of an impact.
For the sub role, I thought it better to have a look at the existing team structure and see who needs a rest and if we can compensate for that. My first port of call was Judd - for obvious reasons - but on further thought it occurs to me that he has been moving very well for the last fortnight. Ditto Murphy, Simpson, Garlett, Betts, Gibbs & Robinson. Curnow should be better for the run, and Walker really should be ok this week. Sticking with the theme of midfielders and quick smalls, I came up with two names that while important players, could be afforded 2-2.5 quarters of rest for the sake of later on in the season: Scotland and Yarran.
This selection further pushes the case for Tuohy, and gives us a big impact should Walker look set for another down week after losing 8 kilos through food poisoning (think fat stores, muscle weakness, hydration levels). Personally I think this is a much better use of the sub, as we can either get a massive impact or add run as the game wears on, the team has minutes without relying on one of its prime movers as a good test within the game, and the player in question gets a much deserved spell. Food for thought.
As for the rest, Setanta needs time in the VFL to work on his touch (and needed it pre-injury IMO); Houlihan has simply not played enough football given the week off and the amount of sub roles he's had; McLean, Carrazzo & Russell are under injury clouds and the cautious approach should still be taken at this point in the season.
Away from that, O'Keeffe hasn't been sighted on a footy field for 3 games running, and Lucas is probably just shy of a recall, assuming that all other names mentioned as possibles are still on the real injury list.
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