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One way or another, our season ends on Friday night from my point of view. It's either our last respectable contribution to the AFL season by ensuring these cauliflower don't make the finals, and essentially booking our spot in making up the numbers.
I reckon we'll win this one, albeit in ugly fashion. Where I think we'll succeed where St Kilda didn't, is that we have the players to tag Essendon*'s midfielders en masse. St Kilda didn't pay Essendon* that respect, instead preferring to play the likes of Hayes and Dal Santo head to head with Watson and Stanton, and paid the price for it. In fairness to the Saints, the loss of Jones and Baker would not have made that an easy task.
For mine, it's shut down Jobe Watson, beat Essendon*. Jobe's performances are somewhat lower against Carlton than compared to his career averages, last time around, we were prepared to have Kade Simpson run head to head against him, and whilst Simmo was probably our best on the night, and kicked two going the other way, I reckon Watson got the three Brownlow votes on the night. In recent years, we've tried Gibbs on him without much luck, and Grigg did a serviceable job last year before Watson went off injured, and I'd like to see Grigga get the lockdown job here too.
Stanton is another one I'd like to apply a hard tag to. He runs hard and has a massive tank, he sets up a lot of their scoring chains, and is a smart player. On the other hand, he's shown he struggles to break a tag, and is quite inconsistent. I don't think Carrazzo has the motor to go with him, and got absolutely pantsed by him last year. I'd give the job to Walker. There's no obvious matchup for him in the Essendon* forward line as such, he's got the mongrel in him to frustrate Stanton at the stoppages and also run with him.
A real probing question at the moment will also be how do we stop Michael Hurley's run out of the back half? Hurley managed to rack up 30 touches and 13 marks, running off Koschitzke on Friday night, and I get the feeling that this could quite easily be another Brian Lake scenario. It's also the first time he's ever played against the Blues ("gee, you don't see that very often, do you?"). Waite has to play forward here, and play deep. No excuses. As I've said a few times this year, rewatch the tape of the Saints match and see how well he managed to keep Gilbert accountable. This has to happen again, and we didn't have that luxury against Lake.
Heath Hocking is another bloke who consistently lifts against us. Will take either Murph or Judd, and has done alright this year on the opposition's best midfielder. Am hoping it's Murph, as I think the West Coast game showed, with LeCras tearing him a new one, he can struggle one out with a smaller quicker opponent in the forward 50, as he can be found to over-rely on his teammates to give him a chop out. If he goes to Murph, we need to be willing to send him forward, and try and create the necessary space to isolate them.
Houli was probably BOG for the Bombers on Friday night, but the flaws in his game are still fairly obvious, he doesn't man up, and his disposal by foot is questionable. Put Ryan Houlihan on him, as arguably our most damaging player in terms of, ahem, "scoreboard pressure", and test this out. HOULIhan on Houli you say? What an enticing prospect.......
The Ryder/Hille conundrum is one that will, if anything, highlight how big a hole Kreuzer leaves more than any other challenge this season. While I think Warnock will certainly hold his own around the ground, I simply can't see who mans them up when one goes forward, with Waite needed up forward. Bower presents the best option for Ryder at this point, and would keep his spot based on this alone, despite his absolute shocker of a game against the Pies. Thornton is well undersized, Austin doesn't quite look right to me playing deep in defense, and would probably give Jamo first crack at Gumbleton. Simon White would be very handy right about now. I reckon play the third ruck, and hope we can tire them.
Monfries is another that keeps me awake at night. The diving for free kicks, the junk time goals last year and so forth. Regardless, did a hell of a job on Sam Fisher as a defensive forward on Friday night, and I expect him to go to Russell (or perhaps vice-a-versa). Should be a decent battle between the two '04 draftees.
I expect Fisher to stay in, to reprise his role as a defensive forward on Fletcher from last year. Ratten still raves about that performance, which really wasn't THAT great, but seems to have kept him in a job, along with the convenience of having a one year deal that others did not at the time. Oh well, regardless, ton up for Fish.
Joseph did a decent enough job on Zaharakis last time around to probably replicate it this time around, did a respectable job on Davis yesterday, whilst Zaharakis copped a hiding from Goddard. Otherwise, perhaps a run with role with Davey?
Will be a decent challenge for Eddie to go up against McVeigh after he towelled up Milne last week. Betts does have one thing going for him in that McVeigh is a cauliflower of a bloke, I suppose.
So my ins and outs? Not exactly set in concrete pending the VFL game today, butttttttt........
In: Thornton, Armfield, Robinson, Jacobs, Houlihan
Out: Carrazzo, Garlett, Henderson, Johnson, Ellard
B: Thornton (Neagle) Jamison (Gumbleton) Russell (Monfries)
HB: Joseph (Zaharakis) Bower (Ryder) Scotland (unaccountable)
C: Walker (Stanton) Judd (Prismall) Grigg (Watson)
HF: Houlihan (Houli) Waite (Hurley) Yarran (Reimers)
F: Betts (McVeigh) Hampson (Hooker) Fisher (Fletcher)
R: Warnock (Hille) Murphy (Hocking) Simpson (Lonergan)
INT: Armfield, Robinson, Jacobs, Gibbs (definitely 22nd man)
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