17th Premiership wrote:
Agree a good ruckman is our most urgent need.
I’m even cooling on the idea of going hard for an established gun mid eg Coniglio.
I’m starting to think we’d be better off getting a moneyball player like the Hawks model from 10yrs ago... Burgoyne, Gunston etc... (Yes Burgoyne is a star but at the time he wasn’t thought to have long left and went for a reasonable price rather than the godfather offer we’d need to get Coniglio).
In early 2015, SOS and Trigg met with John Deeble - known as a bit of a coaching/scouting doyen in baseball circles. John is now the Asia-Pacific Director of scouting for the LA Dodgers, but for 15 years was Asia-Pacific talent scout for the Boston Red Sox. More importantly - Deeble and Brett Ward, an Aussie also with the Red Sox, invented the Aphex Software for List Management. They were trying to capitalize on the 'Moneyball' craze which was being taken so far out of context from what it originally was that it is now more a myth that anything else. But at a local level, Aphex started to gain some momentum - and that momentum coincided with Stephen Silvagni's arrival at Carlton.
Aphex was a similar model to the one Adelaide had used a few years earlier. Stephen Trigg was well aware of it. The Crows had used their own model to prioritize their interest in Eddie Betts (18 months before he left). Deeble launched the Aphex website at the end of 2013 and pitched it directly at the AFL industry. He already had David King speak to the analytics without actually mentioning Aphex by name at the end of 2013 and by January 2014, Callum Twomey had written an article for the AFL website about Aphex as the 'new moneyball'.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyballIn late 2014, SOS's contract comes with his own stipulations. Similar stipulations that he had in 2006
*In September 2006 - Pagan convinced SOS to come on board as a senior assistant. SOS agreed, on the proviso that he can control various elements of the football department. Bruce Mathieson told the board this was a good compromise and a good idea. Then a 3 day circus of indecisive board meetings and football reviews followed. The board agreed to sack Pagan. Barry Mitchell presented to the Board for the senior coaching position before the Board back-flipped on its decision to sack Pagan and reinstated him for a further 2 years. Mitchell stayed as an assistant. Silvagni doesn't have a job. He accepts a coaching offer from then new St.Kilda coach Ross Lyon. So - pre-season 2015. SOS is back at Carlton. He has the board wrapped around his finger. He has complete carte-blanche over list management. He's got sign off on using Aphex but he decides he wants to tinker with it. Trigg tells SOS to be mindful that the software is to give them a better understanding of trading - something they know they'll have to do if they're to rebuild in the coming years. SOS wants to use the analytics for drafting. The favorite son wins out. No one goes against SOS. It's a battle at board level that can't be won. LoGiudice has signed off on it. Adrian Gleeson and Craig Mathieson back SOS in. The club is compromised.
It doesn't go as planned. SOS is so invested in his own version of Aphex, that he overlooks fully understanding the new points system and has instead created a convoluted list management tool. Trigg was right. Aphex is designed as a very simplistic tool to analyse and target players already in the system. The goal of "Moneyball" (and Aphex) is simply to identify value that other teams might be overlooking. Michael Agresta joins as List Manager for the 2018 season. That's SOS's exit strategy right there - and at seasons end, he should use it.
Do we need a GM List Manager & Strategy when we have a competent List Manager and the Strategy is somewhat flawed?
The whole list rebuild 'going too young' has been known for a while. Cain Liddle has made mention of his understanding of Carlton's position while he was still at Richmond. He's being polite. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Something's brewing. I can feel it in me bones. Someone should book Festival Hall. Only three things are certain - LoGiudice won't fall on his sword, SOS is stubborn and Chris Judd is still trying to figure it all out.
Can't wait for the next AGM!
I had totally forgotten this farcical bit of history. Unbelievable LOL