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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:21 pm 
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Ken Hunter
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thryleon wrote:
dannyboy wrote:
except if it happens time and time and time again, then it is an issue because of an underlying issue.

If Dogs (to use your example) experienced 5 (or more) run on of goals in almost every game I doubt they would have played in the GF - but I am happy to be proved wrong. How many run-ons did Melbourne and Dogs experience compared to Carlton in 2021? The same, less or more?


Its literally a scoring trend but the closer to the top of the ladder you finish, the less frequently it occurs (as typified by the spread of teams on the ladder). Why? the more games you win, the less likely you conceded 5 goals or more in a row.


It's not really any different to scoring 2 then copping 8, or copping 3, scoring 1, copping another 3, scoring 1 again, and then copping another 2.

It might make people feel better or worse about things, but the alarming part of the 5 goal run ons, is more to do with momentum swings.

There were multiple times, that this played out, even though we executed a forward press, and didnt hit the scoreboard which meant when we didnt have the momentum we conceded, but when we did, we failed to score. To make the statistic go away (read the grand final) its more important to score when you have the momentum. Scoring when you dont can sometimes be attributed to scoring efficiency.

It literally happens in matches all the time.


If you wanted to point to a statistic, I would say the one that shows the inside 50 count is way more useful to analyse, because it shows the variance between momentum swings better. teams that have momentum wont convert all the time, but they will enter forward 50. Likewise, teams conceding momentum often will see many inside 50's against, which will tell a much better story of what is occurring in game.

Scoring is scoring. Ive seen teams win, by scoring efficiently, and their opposition failing to hit the scoreboard, and that doesnt make the win any better or worse, because all that has to change is scoring efficiency and the result changes. THATS why the 5 goal run ons are in varying degrees, useless. Its not even a statistic if you saw it play out in every final you watched, and the only tight final I saw where this didnt occur to at least one finalist, was the GWS vs Sydney match.


The stats over 50 games would dictate your reasoning is wrong. Teague couldn’t or wouldn’t fix the issue. Simple really. Regardless, greater minds than you and I, that are closer to the coal face, said Teague was not up to it.

It’s history. Done, dusted.

Regards Cazzesman

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:06 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan

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thryleon wrote:
the more games you win, the less likely you conceded 5 goals or more in a row.


thryleon wrote:
5 goal run ons is a useless statistical anomaly.


:lol:
It's a useless statistical anomaly but it's less likely to occur, the more you win.
Sounds like a reasonably important statistic to me.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:32 pm 
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Robert Walls

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Cazzesman wrote:
thryleon wrote:
dannyboy wrote:
except if it happens time and time and time again, then it is an issue because of an underlying issue.

If Dogs (to use your example) experienced 5 (or more) run on of goals in almost every game I doubt they would have played in the GF - but I am happy to be proved wrong. How many run-ons did Melbourne and Dogs experience compared to Carlton in 2021? The same, less or more?


Its literally a scoring trend but the closer to the top of the ladder you finish, the less frequently it occurs (as typified by the spread of teams on the ladder). Why? the more games you win, the less likely you conceded 5 goals or more in a row.


It's not really any different to scoring 2 then copping 8, or copping 3, scoring 1, copping another 3, scoring 1 again, and then copping another 2.

It might make people feel better or worse about things, but the alarming part of the 5 goal run ons, is more to do with momentum swings.

There were multiple times, that this played out, even though we executed a forward press, and didnt hit the scoreboard which meant when we didnt have the momentum we conceded, but when we did, we failed to score. To make the statistic go away (read the grand final) its more important to score when you have the momentum. Scoring when you dont can sometimes be attributed to scoring efficiency.

It literally happens in matches all the time.


If you wanted to point to a statistic, I would say the one that shows the inside 50 count is way more useful to analyse, because it shows the variance between momentum swings better. teams that have momentum wont convert all the time, but they will enter forward 50. Likewise, teams conceding momentum often will see many inside 50's against, which will tell a much better story of what is occurring in game.

Scoring is scoring. Ive seen teams win, by scoring efficiently, and their opposition failing to hit the scoreboard, and that doesnt make the win any better or worse, because all that has to change is scoring efficiency and the result changes. THATS why the 5 goal run ons are in varying degrees, useless. Its not even a statistic if you saw it play out in every final you watched, and the only tight final I saw where this didnt occur to at least one finalist, was the GWS vs Sydney match.


The stats over 50 games would dictate your reasoning is wrong. Teague couldn’t or wouldn’t fix the issue. Simple really. Regardless, greater minds than you and I, that are closer to the coal face, said Teague was not up to it.

It’s history. Done, dusted.

Regards Cazzesman


:thumbsup:

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2021 11:37 pm 
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Horrie Clover
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Cazzesman wrote:
thryleon wrote:
dannyboy wrote:
except if it happens time and time and time again, then it is an issue because of an underlying issue.

If Dogs (to use your example) experienced 5 (or more) run on of goals in almost every game I doubt they would have played in the GF - but I am happy to be proved wrong. How many run-ons did Melbourne and Dogs experience compared to Carlton in 2021? The same, less or more?


Its literally a scoring trend but the closer to the top of the ladder you finish, the less frequently it occurs (as typified by the spread of teams on the ladder). Why? the more games you win, the less likely you conceded 5 goals or more in a row.


It's not really any different to scoring 2 then copping 8, or copping 3, scoring 1, copping another 3, scoring 1 again, and then copping another 2.

It might make people feel better or worse about things, but the alarming part of the 5 goal run ons, is more to do with momentum swings.

There were multiple times, that this played out, even though we executed a forward press, and didnt hit the scoreboard which meant when we didnt have the momentum we conceded, but when we did, we failed to score. To make the statistic go away (read the grand final) its more important to score when you have the momentum. Scoring when you dont can sometimes be attributed to scoring efficiency.

It literally happens in matches all the time.


If you wanted to point to a statistic, I would say the one that shows the inside 50 count is way more useful to analyse, because it shows the variance between momentum swings better. teams that have momentum wont convert all the time, but they will enter forward 50. Likewise, teams conceding momentum often will see many inside 50's against, which will tell a much better story of what is occurring in game.

Scoring is scoring. Ive seen teams win, by scoring efficiently, and their opposition failing to hit the scoreboard, and that doesnt make the win any better or worse, because all that has to change is scoring efficiency and the result changes. THATS why the 5 goal run ons are in varying degrees, useless. Its not even a statistic if you saw it play out in every final you watched, and the only tight final I saw where this didnt occur to at least one finalist, was the GWS vs Sydney match.


The stats over 50 games would dictate your reasoning is wrong. Teague couldn’t or wouldn’t fix the issue. Simple really. Regardless, greater minds than you and I, that are closer to the coal face, said Teague was not up to it.

It’s history. Done, dusted.

Regards Cazzesman


North Melbourne’s stats prove its not, and fixing that issue isn't worth attempting because its not the problem its a symptom.

Last and second last over 2 seasons, and were sitting middle of the road last 50 games for run ons. What would you rather, their 5 goal run on record, or our ladder finishes over 2 seasons?

Blue Vain wrote:
thryleon wrote:
the more games you win, the less likely you conceded 5 goals or more in a row.


thryleon wrote:
5 goal run ons is a useless statistical anomaly.


:lol:
It's a useless statistical anomaly but it's less likely to occur, the more you win.
Sounds like a reasonably important statistic to me.


Its a trend not a statistic.

See answer to Cazzesman above for reasoning.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 8:38 am 
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Ken Hunter
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so you do think that those run-ons probably indicate something is wrong?

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 8:41 am 
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John Nicholls
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Time to brush up on correlation vs causation.

Useful in many threads here on TC :lol:

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 8:58 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
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Blue Vain wrote:
The club has been sourcing assistant coaches since mid year and Hamill held discussion with Brad Lloyd in June. So it's not a huge surprise.
I was hugely disappointed when he left as I loved the way he played the game but I didn't buy into the vitriol and hate. He regretted it as soon as he left so IMHO, he was hurt by the decision as much as anyone. He was a young kid who allowed himself to be manipulated by a money hungry, scumbag manager.

As for the Saints having 5 goal runs against them, we should know as well as anyone that it has little to do with your backline. It's more about midfield and forward pressure and having an overly offensive game style. Ratts has always coached a game that rewards downhill skiers. Not a lot different to Teague.



So true Ratten and Teague had an ultra offensive game plans.

Sure injuries curtailed potential success, but their teams couldn't defend well with either coach.
They had their weaknesses, and Ratten still has this problem .... imo

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:00 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Blue Vain wrote:
Lambert would be fantastic in player welfare and development. The GWS players and their families love him.
There was a lot more behind the Whitfield saga than met the eye. Lambert was the fall guy.

"I could make things out of clay or lay by the bay, I just may"


Correct.

Whitfield should have been in big big trouble. Nothing to do with his claimed girlfriend issues. She just ifted the lid.

Whitfield got away with it.

Lambert...would a guy!!

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:03 am 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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rhino27 wrote:
We all have different opinions and recollections of what happened here over 20 years ago.

I'm no longer concerned about that. All I want to know is what does he bring to the table as an assistant that complements Voss and Power?
What will he do to implement defensive structures that we haven't had and how will help with the development of players?
No use getting them "angry" or getting them to play "powerful" football if he can't implement proper structures and assist with bringing in a game plan to ensure success.



Hamill played a vital role as a leader in a team coached by Lyon. They had a fantastic team defence ethic, and had targets up forward they also wanted to take advantage.

Hamnill's last 20 years have been filled with a lot of footy learnings and his IQ will be a brilliant assett if he can communicate it as well as they say he can. Plus he was tough and I'm sure our kids will look at the Hamill footage, or remember how uncompromising he was with his attack at the man and ball. Fits in well with Vossy's mantra playing a "Powerful Brand".

Rubbing hands...its ALL coming together.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:25 am 
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Geoff Southby
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bondiblue wrote:
rhino27 wrote:
We all have different opinions and recollections of what happened here over 20 years ago.

I'm no longer concerned about that. All I want to know is what does he bring to the table as an assistant that complements Voss and Power?
What will he do to implement defensive structures that we haven't had and how will help with the development of players?
No use getting them "angry" or getting them to play "powerful" football if he can't implement proper structures and assist with bringing in a game plan to ensure success.



Hamill played a vital role as a leader in a team coached by Lyon. They had a fantastic team defence ethic, and had targets up forward they also wanted to take advantage.

Hamnill's last 20 years have been filled with a lot of footy learnings and his IQ will be a brilliant assett if he can communicate it as well as they say he can. Plus he was tough and I'm sure our kids will look at the Hamill footage, or remember how uncompromising he was with his attack at the man and ball. Fits in well with Vossy's mantra playing a "Powerful Brand".

Rubbing hands...its ALL coming together.


Fair question's there " Rhines " ..............reckon these blokes have gotta get there heads right before they do anything else . First and foremost Voss and Hamill will bring ferocity back . Get that instilled and i reckon all the other stuff will fall into place . Not overnight , but eventually it will filter through .

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:30 am 
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Craig Bradley

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Happy so far but I do think we also need some more tactical nous in the group -but that’s obviously just me looking from afar


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:26 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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Talking to Solomon and McCartney according to Cleary on ch7.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:32 am 
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Bruce Doull
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Solomon, yes.

McCartney, lolwut?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:43 am 
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Mike Fitzpatrick

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What exactly would Solomon add? Another hard nut who won't complement Voss and Hammil or does he have some tactical nous?
Well and good to have our players hit harder, go in harder and be more aggressive, but without any real tactical nous we aren't going to win many more games.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:11 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Clarke returns to Carlton as assistant coach

Tim Clarke has returned to Carlton as midfield coach.
By Carlton Media - Just now

The Carlton Football Club is pleased to welcome experienced coach Tim Clarke back to the Blues as midfield coach.

Clarke returns to IKON Park with 11 years of coaching experience, most recently as forwards coach with the Gold Coast Suns, having also implemented a new development program during his three seasons at the Queensland club.

The 39-year-old’s journey at the elite level began with Hawthorn, where he played 96 games between 2001 and 2008 before starting his coaching career at Richmond, initially as a development coach in 2010.

In 2013, Clarke was appointed Senior Coach of the Tigers’ VFL affiliate Coburg and a year later took the reins of the standalone side at Punt Road before commencing his first stint at the Blues at the end of 2015.

Clarke was midfield coach during his initial three seasons in the Navy Blue, working closely with a young group that included future co-captain Patrick Cripps, before moving north to join the Suns.

Now back at IKON Park, Clarke said he could not wait to get to work to take the Club to the next level.
Tim Clarke spent three seasons at IKON Park as an assistant coach. (Credit: AFL Photos)

“In my discussions with the Club about coming back, what was really clear was the direction this group wants to go and the total buy-in that is there to achieve it,” Clarke said.

“That is an incredibly exciting environment to be a part of. I know first-hand, having worked with some of these players during the early stages of their career, what this list is capable of and I cannot wait to get stuck in and begin the hard work with them.”

Blues Head of Football Brad Lloyd said Clarke’s ability to get the best out of players set him apart as an ideal addition to the Club’s AFL coaching staff under new Senior Coach Michael Voss.

“Tim has established himself as a quality coach at the elite level for over a decade now, we are delighted to add someone of his experience and quality to our coaching group,” Lloyd said.

“Tim has developed young talent, worked with established players and has overall experience coaching his own side – he ticks every box in regard to the specific skillsets we are looking to add to our coaching group.”

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/10235 ... tant-coach

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:35 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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Impressive CV :grin:

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:40 pm 
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Rod Ashman

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Effes wrote:
Clarke returns to Carlton as assistant coach

Tim Clarke has returned to Carlton as midfield coach.
By Carlton Media - Just now

The Carlton Football Club is pleased to welcome experienced coach Tim Clarke back to the Blues as midfield coach.

Clarke returns to IKON Park with 11 years of coaching experience, most recently as forwards coach with the Gold Coast Suns, having also implemented a new development program during his three seasons at the Queensland club.

The 39-year-old’s journey at the elite level began with Hawthorn, where he played 96 games between 2001 and 2008 before starting his coaching career at Richmond, initially as a development coach in 2010.

In 2013, Clarke was appointed Senior Coach of the Tigers’ VFL affiliate Coburg and a year later took the reins of the standalone side at Punt Road before commencing his first stint at the Blues at the end of 2015.

Clarke was midfield coach during his initial three seasons in the Navy Blue, working closely with a young group that included future co-captain Patrick Cripps, before moving north to join the Suns.

Now back at IKON Park, Clarke said he could not wait to get to work to take the Club to the next level.
Tim Clarke spent three seasons at IKON Park as an assistant coach. (Credit: AFL Photos)

“In my discussions with the Club about coming back, what was really clear was the direction this group wants to go and the total buy-in that is there to achieve it,” Clarke said.

“That is an incredibly exciting environment to be a part of. I know first-hand, having worked with some of these players during the early stages of their career, what this list is capable of and I cannot wait to get stuck in and begin the hard work with them.”

Blues Head of Football Brad Lloyd said Clarke’s ability to get the best out of players set him apart as an ideal addition to the Club’s AFL coaching staff under new Senior Coach Michael Voss.

“Tim has established himself as a quality coach at the elite level for over a decade now, we are delighted to add someone of his experience and quality to our coaching group,” Lloyd said.

“Tim has developed young talent, worked with established players and has overall experience coaching his own side – he ticks every box in regard to the specific skillsets we are looking to add to our coaching group.”

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/10235 ... tant-coach


Not sure I remember much about Tim Clarke - probably shows how much attention I've been paying to assistant coaches up until recently...
Is this a good appointment or bad or meh?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:56 pm 
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Craig Bradley

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Jake Niall reporting that Ash Hansen is coming to Carlton as The right hand man for Voss
Good get I reckon hopefully has learnt a lot from Bevo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:59 pm 
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Ken Hunter

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frank dardew wrote:
Jake Niall reporting that Ash Hansen is coming to Carlton as The right hand man for Voss
Good get I reckon hopefully has learnt a lot from Bevo

Is he the one who played for the WCE?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:06 pm 
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Craig Bradley

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Yep


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