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| Our Odds for the Top Four http://www.talkingcarlton.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=24606 |
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| Author: | Jarusa [ Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Our Odds for the Top Four |
Seeing as we are in the top four after five rounds I thought I would have a look at how many teams manage to hang on to a top four place to the and of the season after being there in round 5. Based on the last ten years our odds at the moment are: To make the Eight: 73% To make the top Four: 40% To make the Grand Final: 17%* more details here: http://www.navyblueblog.com  I like those odds.* If we stay top four till the end of the year. |
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| Author: | Kaptain Kouta [ Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
What are the odds of making the GF if we aren't top 4? |
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| Author: | Jarusa [ Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Kaptain Kouta wrote: What are the odds of making the GF if we aren't top 4? 7% |
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| Author: | grrofunger [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
what are the odds of us finishing 9th? |
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| Author: | Jarusa [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
grrofunger wrote: what are the odds of us finishing 9th? Richmond% |
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| Author: | grrofunger [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
you are good at this it was a trick question |
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| Author: | klakker [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 5:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
If we don't beat Hawthorn this week , the odds won't mean a **** ! |
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| Author: | The Normal One [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
klakker wrote: If we don't beat Hawthorn this week , the odds won't mean a **** ! Negative nellies invading another thread. You do know we can still make top 4 even if we lose against Hawthorn? 16 more games to go you realise? Yep that's 16, only 2 of which I'm confident of not winning. Jars figures are more than achievable if we win the games we are meant to win. |
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| Author: | tommi [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
TEN PREMIERSHIPS IN A ROW...............! kindest regards tommi |
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| Author: | verbs [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 8:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Good thread! Made me have a look at the ladder over the past 10 years. Only once has the team in third spot after Round 5 not made the eight, Geelong finished 9th in 2002. We'll have to fall over to miss the finals this year. |
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| Author: | Virgin Blue [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Call me if we beat the dawks. |
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| Author: | Mrs Caz [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Call you what? |
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| Author: | Jarusa [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Mrs Caz wrote: Call you what? *cough* Mrs Caz wrote: THread cleaned up...now please stick to the discussion. If you are not interested in the discussion, please move on. viewtopic.php?p=886250#p886250 
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| Author: | Mrs Caz [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
 I'm not ready to focus on odds yet...still have my fingers, toes and eyes crossed before a game. 
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| Author: | Virgin Blue [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Mrs Caz wrote: :clap: I'm not ready to focus on odds yet...still have my fingers, toes and eyes crossed before a game. I'm with you. It was only 1 week ago some of us were diving for the razor blades. (includes me). If we get over the Hawks, or if we're still in the top 4 by R12, then I will start to BELIEVE. |
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| Author: | darknavy [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 2:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
verbs wrote: Good thread! Made me have a look at the ladder over the past 10 years. Only once has the team in third spot after Round 5 not made the eight, Geelong finished 9th in 2002. We'll have to fall over to miss the finals this year. This is why I love stats -when you dig deeper Of those 10 seasons only 3 of the Round 5 3rd placers had a 3-2 start ( Sydney '07 - finished 7th, WCE '03 - finished 7th, Geelong '02 - finished 9th) There were only 4 Top 4 finishes. All had a 4-1 start Dogs had a 4.5-0.5 start (Bulldogs '08 - finished 3rd , Brisbane '04 -finished 2nd, Port '01 -finished 3rd , Ess '99 -finished 1st) The other 4-1 starts were (Collingwood '06 - finished 5th, Melbourne '05 - finished 7th, Geelong '00 - finished 5th) More importantly total number of Flags won by the team in 3rd at R5 = 0 |
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| Author: | verbs [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 3:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
True. However, where we are on the ladder after Round 13 will be a better indicator. |
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| Author: | Megaman [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 3:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
we're doomed |
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| Author: | Blueboy_Dan [ Tue Apr 28, 2009 6:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Top 8 this year Top 4 next year |
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| Author: | BlueMark [ Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Our Odds for the Top Four |
Mrs Caz wrote: :clap: I'm not ready to focus on odds yet...still have my fingers, toes and eyes crossed before a game. And wires too IIRC Just making the finals will make me a happy chappy |
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