I have been thinking over this for a day or two since the Chris Judd trade was finalised (and I am very happy we have got him) and the initial sadness in losing Josh Kennedy to West Coast.

I started to think... was losing Josh Kennedy really a bad thing to happen to our club? I do not mean to talk him down in any way, perhaps he may have been a star of the future - only time will tell on that one.

I headed over to footywire.com and did a few stats on other star forwards from other clubs who have recently been drafted and regarded as good players:

Nick Reiwoldt (St.Kilda), Jonathan Brown (Brisbane) and Lance Franklin (Hawthorn).

You could assume that all three mentioned above are in the same mould as Josh Kennedy when he first started in AFL. Granted that Carlton has not set the world on fire in terms of the amount of wins, still I went into this with an open mind and to see what the stats came up with.

I have only counted the first 22 games for each player, as this is the only amount of games that Josh Kennedy played for us during his time at Carlton. The main stats I focused on were Kicks, Handballs, Marks and Goals (the main three for a forward). Keep in mind the figures are as an average over the 22 rounds.

Here are the results:

Josh Kennedy - Carlton
Kicks - 4.2, Handballs - 2.5, Marks - 3.7, Goals - 0.5

Nick Reiwoldt - St.Kilda
Kicks - 9.0, Handballs - 3.2, Marks - 6.6, Goals - 0.6

Lance Franklin - Hawthorn
Kicks - 7.0, Handballs - 3.9, Marks - 3.9, Goals - 1.0

Jonathan Brown - Brisbane
Kicks - 7.4, Handballs - 4.2, Marks - 4.7, Goals - 0.8

From the results above, Josh has not set the football world on fire when compared to the first 22 games of the other players mentioned.

Now comes the interesting part - granted the other teams involved had a higher skill level of player (Each team has since played Finals since the appropriate forward was drafted) does this seem to account for the lower numbers associated with JK?

There are several questions, and other variables that come into equation when comparing players - but I thought it may be an idea to mention what I have... it was a shame to lose JK, but perhaps not a really big shame in the bigger scheme of things.

Sure it was sad to lose JK considering he did originally not want to leave, but I wish him all the best at West Coast and I will keep a keen eye on his AFL career to see how he will progress.

Feel free to reply - all of us have different views and opinions on TalkingCarlton, so would love to hear some!

Regards, Shaun (sticks1977)

stats can be misleading somewhat - this season JK probably spent more time in the ruck than up forward

also our game plan under pagan would make it more difficult for a young KP to accumulate stats (bomb it to Fev 80-90% of the time)

For 2007 JK had
4.4kicks, 3.1 handballs, 3.8marks, 0.5 goals, 0.4 behinds, 2.01 tackles, 3.1 hitouts

Under Ratten JK averaged
7.5kicks, 3.5handballs, 6 marks, 1 goal, 1behind, 3 tackles 0.5 hitouts

Whislt it is just 2 games and I think there is sufficient change in the stats to indicate that JK was
1. getting better opportunities to perform under ratten
2. being utilised differently (ie no longer in the ruck)

If we took JK's stats for the last 2 games its actually comparable to most of the key forwards that you list - of course, being just 2 games its not enough to make a statistically significant comparison between the players. It does indicate though that perhaps JK was better than what he was able to show under pagan.

imo, yes it is bad. not because i think kennedy is going to be a superstar of the ilk of the players you've mentioned but mainly for his presence. we do not have a single big man who likes to assert himself physically on to a game in our starting 22.

josh is someone who is pivtoal to a structure someone you can build a team around even if he's not taking 10 marks and kicking 5 goals a game. the will to contest everything as hard as you possibly can and then follow up with 2nd and 3rd efforts to keep the ball locked in is invaluable. not to mention how hard he trains, the example he sets and the raw leadership he had going for him.

if no one is giving a contest for us everything is just going to get rebounded. just ask bulldogs supporters how much they'd love someone with a body and work ethic like JK's.

i don't mean to sound all doom and gloom in one of the most exciting times in our club's recent history, i'm confident we can find a suitable replacement for JK but my point is players of his type are rare and valuable. i hope juddy can make my whole post irrelevant as only he can, i'm as excited as anybody about acquiring him but we had to give something good for something good. but at the end of the day, i think there's little argument that we were the clear winners out of this trade.

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Last edited by true_blue3 on Mon Sep 26, 1981 5:07 pm; edited 92 times in total

I think his progress might be better compared to Roughead, who was a high draft pick and also failed to deliver great things in his first 2 years.

I suspect the only thing that will stop JK being a top AFL player is the fact that he tends to keep getting niggling injuries - not a good thing for a player who looks to be developing as a crash and bash type of player.

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Hey Rocky; there are too many rabbits ... in China.

You mean we traded JK to West Coast? For what?

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"I had to eat"

I wouldn't read too much into the stats, but he had a few weaknesses really holding him back IMO... being such a big guy, he was very slow and immobile, and wasn't very capable at ground level. He's still going to be a good player, but probably not the star some people thought he'd be - a workhorse really. Great endurance.

Pick 46.

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You're question ...... really all that bad?!?


My answer is......... only time will tell!!


Judd wanting to come home changed everything, In a perfect world we didnt want to give Josh up, but we had to give something blah blah etc etc.


Could've .. should've... would've.


It's done and dusted, let's move forward and get back into the business of winning games of footy.


All the best Josh, Welcome Juddy.

will hartlett now step up - seems to me he has all these attributes??

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one you knock back is one you never have

Hear hear, let's move on. No doubt JK is already being acquainted with his new teammates and already thinking about next year...

Unless of course he's been hanging out with Cousins, in which case he's probably thinking about the year 2050 or something.

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WADA medical director Dr Alan Vernec describes Essendon* FC drug case as biggest scandal in team sport the world of sport has seen. #WC2WB

#GUILTY

Finding a CHF wont be easy, JK will be missed from our future structure and there is no obvious replacement. Hard working honest player who will be a good player for WC . Wont be a highlight reel player but one of those consistent players who you can build a team around and depend on.

I was dissapointed to lose him and I hope him, pick 3 and 20 dont come back to haunt us down the track....

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"When you have the attitude of a champion, you see adversity as your
training partner."
- Conor Gillen

I’ve been of the opinion that the club erred in its draft choices over 2004-05 in that we selected too many tall forwards and not enough midfielders and this may have held back our revival to some extent. I was particularly critical that we had recruited Hartlett as a key forward hoping he would cement a defensive KP role. Then with the addition of Kennedy, if Hartlett could not deliver in this role, he would always remain surplus to our needs if JK stepped up as Josh was always going to get first crack having the greater credentials.

From what I have seen of Adam I am pretty confident that he can play CHF if given time and if he can avoid injury (the BIG if with Adam). In terms of dimensions they are fairly similar (source: club website)
Adam: 195cm, 88 kg – could be 1-2cm taller now and is definitely heavier than that now
Josh: 195cm, 93 kg – apparently had grown to close to 199cm and was around 97kg

The only ? is his durability and doubt on whether he can hold down a tough role like CHF at AFL level. He is aggressive, a pretty good mark and a thumping kick so he can be given a go. I’m hoping he can stake a claim

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C'mon Blueboys!

we won't feel it immediately but I dare say we will regret losing him down the track

We will regret losing Josh, and we would regret not getting Judd

go figure....

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Supporting the Blues No Matter What

we do a trent croad.

keep talkign to him, keep being interested in him

then get him back here in a few years for nothing

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Got to love the stare Down by Setanta on Llyod

I like the sound of that!

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And so while others miserably pledge themselves to the pursuit of ambition and brief power, I will be stretched out in the shade, singing.

I doubt the kid will be back.

Only the future will tell if JK is a loss to Carlton, depending on his career with the Weagles.

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Blue is the colour, Blue is our colourful conversation, football is the game, talking carlton is our aim, we're all together, we're all together, winning is our aim, arguing is a pain, let's debate for gain. .. .!

I just gotta compliment you on this post. You are spot on. I would have preferred to trade Hartlett than Kennedy. This post is one of the best ever on this forum. Really adds insight.

You have to also remember that JK spent a lot of his game time on the bench!

He will be a good player for the future of WC!

On a selfish point of view, I hope he doesn’t settle in WC so we can trade for him in the near future!

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"Dont count the games, make the games count"