Good, if we put pressure on their midfield and force them to overusing the ball and playing wide...an eventual turnover will find the ball in Fev's throat...

Fev has to kick 6+ with even contributions from Longumuir (2-3), Betts (2), Waite (3), Lance (4) and hopefully a few goals from our midfielders...

As we proved in the wizard cup series...we are a better team when we put intense pressure on the opposition...
Personally Freo are "soft" but they can be good when given a bit of confidence...I know Subiacco is a different ball game but one thing I like about the Blues this year is there ability to make themselves competitive when things are not really going there way...Last week I thought after the first 10 minutes of the 1st quarter that we will have our asses kicked...instead if 3 out of our 6 posters sailed in for 6 points the game would have definitely swung in our favour...

Tackling-clearances-contest is our weapon...Oh yes...Houla should be given more responsibility...he proved last week he is ready to take the next step..

I reckon we're better than even money, but make no mistake, this will be a tough gig. Freo will be a different team at home after a week in the spotlight.

Games like this where we need the Fraser Brown, Peter Dean, Greg Williams, Adrian Hickmott mongrel types. Let those Freo show ponies know there's a game of footy to be won.

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AT least there will be room for our forwards to move and our midfielders to burn.

Subi is one big ground, and suited to our style of play.

If Thornton is as fit as Pagan expects - which I have no doubt he should be - Then that 4 goal win to Freo - based on us having no Thornton and no Livingston needs a revision our way.

How many Freo goals would a fit Thornton have a hand in stopping?

At least 4?

Get ready for a close match...

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My Blue Heaven

It's not just that, it's the fact we can play Kouta and Lance where they should be, instead of dragging them back. It's a domino effect and it's an exciting thought. I hope he's fit and plays and plays well

Perfactly correct, a multiplier affect at work. I just want a win when few or no one rates us.

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My Blue Heaven

Perfactly correct, a multiplier affect at work. I just want a win when few or no one rates us.

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My Blue Heaven

This multiplying effect seems to work with double posts as well - good signs indeed!

but yes - our defence certainly looks alot stronger with him in the team

the thing is with this game, and the ground itself, if our midfield can get on top i reckon our forward line with Whitnall, Fevola and now Longmuir as presenting forwards we will kick a bag.

quietly confident.

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Got to love the stare Down by Setanta on Llyod

Intertesting to note that Fremantle haven't kicked over 100 points in the past 8 games [figures from Hun or Age and not guaranteed correct due to subtle effects of raging hangover]

yep and our continued improvment sees us kicking 100+ points regularly now

im pretty positive about this game

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Got to love the stare Down by Setanta on Llyod

i'm just praying for a win tomorrow.

ohh and no injuries

A fine day is expected (today) with some showers forecast to develop tonight (Friday). A front should move through Perth on Saturday bringing further showers. Fine though cool weather should return for Sunday.

TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 15 Maximum: 23

well atleast it wont be too hot for the guys

Damn good if the stats so far in 2005 are anything to go by.......

Carlton
rd 1 12.13
rd 2 16.10
rd 3 16.12
rd 4 16.13 (Interstate)

Ave 15.12 per game

Total of 412 for and 448 against
Averaging 102 points for a game and 112 points against

Freo
rd 1 13.10 (Home)
rd 2 8.10
rd 3 12.8 (Home)
rd 4 7.10

Ave 10.10 per game

Total of 278 for and 300 against
Averaging 70 points a game for and 75 points against.

With T-bird back and Karl running into some decent form I really think the backline will toughen up substancially.

Lance can again play forward and......there you go.......a comfortable 30 point win, going away

Regards Cazzesman

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Ricky Gervais - “Everyone has the right to hold whatever beliefs they want. And everyone else has the right to find those beliefs f***ing ridiculous.”

According to Centrebet, our chances at Subi are 2.2 to 1 ($3.20).

I'll take those odds thank you!

Got a nice surprise when I checked my account, I got paid half the dividend (=$1.75) for my wager on the Blues against Port. I just assumed it would be money back only for the draw.

GO BLUES!

There are 2 possible results, depending on the Bookie.

Some Bookies maintain that they offer odds on a draw in AFL games, so that there are 3 events. Those Bookies only pay out if the punter took the odds on the draw. Those that bet on a win for either side lose. Soccer and Test Cricket bets are almost always of this type.

Most Bookies take the view that a draw in AFL results in the punter being paid half of the face value of the ticket. If you take the odds of a win of 1.50 and bet $100, the face value of the (winning) ticket is $150. Half the face value of the ticket is therefore $75. In other words, you lose $25. You will end up in front if you bet on a side at over evens, behind if you bet on a side under evens, and break even if you take an even bet.

Getting your money back only really happens if the event is cancelled. One sport in which this happens a bit is Tennis. Bookies were being burnt by insiders who knew when good players were unlikely to win a match because of injury. As long as that player played at least one point, a retirement would result in a winning bet on the opponent. Most if not all Bookies changed their rules so that only completed matches count, and a retirement results in bets being cancelled and bets returned.

I think we can roll this mob comfortably simply coz we are a better side.And to a fair degree a better side.Reckon if you are relying on Sandilands,Medhurst and Farmer to get you over the line you are in trouble.Ruckmen playing out of the goalsquare are notoriously unreliable.Sure,they will kick a big bag every so often,but not week in and week out.Medhurst and Farmer are dynamite on there day,but those days seem to be few and far between.What im getting at is the Dockers are a very fluky side,with a lot of brittle characters who cant be relied on.


The task is pretty simple really.The two dangermen in Medhurst and Farmer have got to be tagged heavily.Then there is the mercurial Pavlich who is capable of anything on his day.I reckon Pavlich is that dangerous that i would have two on him if that is what it takes.And then that leaves Hazleby,who to my mind is almost in the Diesel class.An absolute champion who wracks up stats with nonchalant ease.And he makes everyone count.An absolute lethal player.Talk about who you would like to see in our jumper.Love Hazleby..........Its simple folks,contain these four,and the rest will collapse like a deck of cards.

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All my dangerous friends

I wrote this piece following our previous game at Subi against the dockers.
The midfield smashed us. Stevens and Kouta were missing and Bell and Haselby were burning.
The statistics may give us a guide to whats required.

"Should we be happy with Saturdays result?
Where did we lose the game and were we tactically sound?

Statistics dont always paint the picture but they do for our round 1 result.

Did the forwards do their job?
Contrary to the view of some, the forward line won on the day.
The Pagan game plan requires a forward line to better a 50% inside 50/scoring shot ratio.
In other words, the forwards must win 50%+ of the forward thrusts and score from them.
20+ shots at goal from 33 inside 50s indicate an efficient forward structure.

Did the backline do their job?
No doubt the tall defenders were effective.
Waterhouse, Longmuir and Simmonds were largely inneffective with a combined 26 possessions and zero goals..
Fremantle had 32 scoring shots from 52 entries.
Not a result considering the input from the Freo on ballers.

Where did it go wrong?
The inability to shut down Haselby and Bell was the reason we couldnt win.
Pagan went into the game with a tactic based on segregating our prime movers from Freo's.
Clarke was to negate Bell, Bannister was to negate Pavlich and Johnson was assigned Haselby. Sporn was also assigned Headland.
Pagan was happy with the peripheral match ups of Camporeale/Carr, Scotland/McManus and Lappin/Walker.

Haselby/Bell v Carlton statistically.
In the first quarter Haselby and Bell had a combined 20 possessions to Clarke and Johnsons 8.
Darren Hulme was assigned Bell and fared no better.
In the second term Bell and Haselby had 16 possessions.
To show the damage inflicted by these 2 players, in the second quarter Freo had 10 scoring shots.
Haselby and Bell either kicked those scores or gave the ball to the scorers 8 out of the 10 times!
In other words they scored or directly assisted 80% of Freos second quarter score!

Was the tactic sound?

With Kouta and Stevens unavailable I believe the tactic was worthwhile. It didnt prove successful due the the inability of Carlton to shut down 2 players. Bannister was very good and Scotland, Campo and Lappin were creative.
The fact remains Carlton were unable to get the ball inside 50. We won the clearances but lost the centre bounce clearances.
Our game plan requires an average of 50 inside 50s to give us a good chance at victory. we had 33.
Freo had 67 more possessions on the day. 55 of those were in the midfield.
As we know Bell and Haselby had over 70 possession between them.

outcomes of the match.
As I stated earlier, statistically our forward line was efficient.
Our backmen toiled hard and our tall backs were very good which is a huge bonus for Denis.
Our inability to apply defensive pressure to the opposition midfielders is where the game was lost.
Those who believe we kick long too often in the midfield will be interested to know Fremantle actually kicked 57% of their midfield possessions long compared to Carltons 51%.

I suspect Denis will be not unhappy after looking at the numbers.
To compete against Freo, the 5 most important players to our set up would include Kouta, Stevens and Angwin.
To be missing those players plus Waite, put us at a great disadvantage.
If we can tread water until they return, we will improve markedly.
I suspect Denis hoped for a win but budgeted for damage minimalisation on Saturday.
For a good percentage of our players to beat or break even with their opponents will give him great heart."

As you can see, Carlton managed a poor 33 inside 50s.
Our midfield is up and running and Kouta and Stevo are huge inclusions.
Johnson had a poor game and his spot in the side concerns me at Subiaco.
Carlton can win this game. The form of Barney is a huge bonus.
We just need to take our opportunities and convert well.

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Looking forward to seeing our potential realised.

How times have changed ey?

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Writer for SuperCoach Paige www.scpaige.com.au
Twitter - @johnfeeney24