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Can make the finals with 11 wins
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Author:  Ads [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Can make the finals with 11 wins
Power, Bombers and Dees all did us a massive favour this weekend beating teams around us on the ladder. Im just having a look at the fixtures ahead and believe we can make the finals with 11 wins, meaning we'd need to beat Richmond and Essendon* which is certainly a big chance.

Check out the run home for the clubs near us on the ladder. We have Pies, Bombers, Tigers, Cats, Dockers.

Swans:
Cats, Hawks, Dockers, Dogs, Lions

Kangaroos:
Dogs, Dockers, Swans, Eagles, Demons

Crows:
Tigers, Dogs, Lions, Pies, Saints

All three teams have extremely tough draws and you can almost rule out the Swans and Crows. Considering we are 2 games ahead of 9th position (4 pts + percentage) i think we are in a really great position. I think just 2 wins from our final 5 will be enough and if we can avoid floggings against Pies/Cats (or even win) then we'll be in good shape.

The Tigers/Bombers games are the crucial matches in our run home, we MUST win those two. Im confident we can make finals now though :smoking:
Author:  jim [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
We'd be a near-certainty with 11 wins. That would mean North would have to win 4 to pass us given percentage.
Author:  BigBlueWave [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
The main thing is ... if we make the finals it would be better if we don't play Hawthorn first. I feel that Hawthorn match us up better than any other team ... if we play them it will be a fast exit.

So ... if Hawthorn finish 5th which I believe they will, then we must finish either 6th or 7th. 8th would be very bad news.
Author:  Navy Blue Horse [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
BlueRob wrote:
The main thing is ... if we make the finals it would be better if we don't play Hawthorn first. I feel that Hawthorn match us up better than any other team ... if we play them it will be a fast exit.

So ... if Hawthorn finish 5th which I believe they will, then we must finish either 6th or 7th. 8th would be very bad news.


The thought of consecutive trips to Subiaco hardly fills me with joy either.
Author:  BigBlueWave [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
By the time the finals arrive Fremantle will be crap ....they are already starting to get weak in the knees. If we finish 6th and the Hawks are 5th ... that implies Fremantle will be 7th so we would be playing them here. I think Barlow was an incredible loss to them.

Hawthorn is our biggest danger in the first final. I would be extremely happy for us to play the Dockers.
Author:  lawrence_angwin [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
I'd just be happy to play finals, particularly after reading that biased crap in the Age on Wed that predicted we would finish 9th - already predicted like 4 games wrong...clowns
Author:  Taff [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 8:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
I think you are all being very optimistic. We couldn't beat any of the teams around us and only played a decent half to defeat the bottom side. I know form is an elusive beast but we have much to do to make the finals. Realistically, on current form, we will be lucky to make the finals and if we do, our time in that series will be brief. Normally I am glass half full but we don't have the form, skills or intensity to make a dent. I would however love to be proven wrong. Next week will be the litmus test.
Go Blues!
Author:  Just Judd [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
Ads wrote:
Power, Bombers and Dees all did us a massive favour this weekend beating teams around us on the ladder. Im just having a look at the fixtures ahead and believe we can make the finals with 11 wins, meaning we'd need to beat Richmond and Essendon* which is certainly a big chance.

Check out the run home for the clubs near us on the ladder. We have Pies, Bombers, Tigers, Cats, Dockers.

Swans:
Cats, Hawks, Dockers, Dogs, Lions

Kangaroos:
Dogs, Dockers, Swans, Eagles, Demons

Crows:
Tigers, Dogs, Lions, Pies, Saints

All three teams have extremely tough draws and you can almost rule out the Swans and Crows. Considering we are 2 games ahead of 9th position (4 pts + percentage) i think we are in a really great position. I think just 2 wins from our final 5 will be enough and if we can avoid floggings against Pies/Cats (or even win) then we'll be in good shape.

The Tigers/Bombers games are the crucial matches in our run home, we MUST win those two. Im confident we can make finals now though :smoking:


FYI -You have the Kangaroos playing the Swans in Rd 20 and the Swans playing the Dockers in Rd 20

As much as I want to beat the bombers I just cant see us beating them. We seem to make them look like world beaters. I can only see us winning one more game
Author:  Siegfried [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
I just posted this in the predictor thread. I just did my latest ladder predictor, and had Melbourne finishing 8th with 10 1/2 wins.

I think we will finish 7th, a long way off 6th. Means a first up final probably against Hawthorn, unless Freo really fall into a heap, in which case back-to-back Freo trips.
Author:  bluegirl72 [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
If Waitey isn't out, and we are good Carlton, then maybe we could beat Bombers and or Tiges....but if those teams are fiery and enthusiastic, then both can beat us...flog us actually.

sorry..it's the virus.
Author:  PD'sPC [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
For all those fearful of a future meeting with Hawthorn in the finals, I'm quietly confident we'll beat them. They have done exceedingly well to make up lost ground from their horrible start. However, I think, after Rd 22, they will be exhausted, particularly after a couple of tough games against the top 4 sides where they were intent on making a statement- and to launch their campaign from 5th, 6th or 7th place would be potentially deflating. Plus, the finals will go another notch- can the Hawks find another yard for this? I say I'm optimistic , only if our lead-up form is any bloody good!! :wink: :yikes:
Author:  Ads [ Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
I don't care who we play in the finals, whether its Hawthorn or Fremantle. I just want to play finals, end of story.

These posts saying "its a waste of time making it, we'll be out the first week" are a bit annoying. We may lose first week, so be it, but losing first week of the finals is better than playing no finals at all.

There is nothing worse than watching the first week of the finals without the Blues involved and last year made me remember how good the feeling was. The top 4-5 are miles above the rest of the comp and i dont think anyone here expects us to win the GF, so lets just enjoy it and if we do progress to the second week then hell yeah!

Who knows, stranger things can happen, remember 1999..?
Author:  jt [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 2:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
If by round 22 its a certainty that we'll be playing Freo in the first week of the finals at Subi we should just send a total second string team to save energy...back to back trips would be seriously tough on the players bodies...
Author:  Stone Free [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 8:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
jt wrote:
If by round 22 its a certainty that we'll be playing Freo in the first week of the finals at Subi we should just send a total second string team to save energy...back to back trips would be seriously tough on the players bodies...


Maybe they should just stay over there for the whole week then.
Author:  Lurker Blue [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
We can make the finals with 11 wins, but I'm concerned about the Scum match.

They always seem to lift when they play us, and have had the wood on us for a while now.
Author:  17th Premiership [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
So, PD'sPC, your theory is basically that the Hawks are playing great footy so they have no improvement left in them but we are playing like crap and have much improvement in us??? :wink:

I think anything can happen in finals but i think the hawks will be so fired up after making it, given their start, that they will play their first finals match full of adrenalin and intensity. and they have the players to do it, even after a tough year - the hardness of Hodge, Brown, Sewell, Mitchell witht he class of Hodge (again), Burgopyne, Franklin & Cyril (freak). They may be vulnerable in the ruck but that's about it. They may fall back after week one (doubt it). they are also a class above us, swans, freo.

Having said that, we STILL have the opportunity to get our own sh*t together and make a strong run into the finals, thanks to the general softness of the standard of teams around us. IF that happens, we get on a roll at the right time of year and anything can go from there.

Re Freo, if it looks like we could play them in 1st week of finals, I'd definitely take a strong team and work on tactics to beat them. I'd also think about keeping the team over there on a week long 'finals focus training camp' to reduce th double trip but this sould be measured against keeping a consistent routine...
Author:  JohnM [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
Not that concerned about whether or not we limp into the finals in eighth place. I tend to agree with Robert Walls, who maintains that the club's focus should solely be on developing a team capable of winning the Premiership, and that no-one at the club should feel that the 'job's done' for the year by making finals.

By very definition, a team can settle for mediocrity for years, finishing 7th and 8th, but not really be going anywhere. When half the team makes the finals, you need a new definition for how you see a successful (non Premiership) year... and I reckon that's top 4.

The only question we should be asking ourselves is: are we heading down a Premiership path or not?

If we are, I don't really care if we just miss the finals this year. If we're not, I wouldn't take a lot of solace from squeaking in.

Sure, a little extra finals experience would be nice, but it's the bigger picture that I hope occupies the minds of those at the club.

But if we do, it's looking increasingly likely we'd play Freo two weeks running over there. Always a weird scenario, especially if we have to win R22 to make it: doesn't let us keep any powder dry tactically for the first final.
Author:  Big Kahuna Boot [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 11:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
..why would the hawks falter in the finals..?.. ..i don't subscribe to them being tired/exhausted at all.. ..their crappy early season form was due to needed players being out.. ..their 'best 22' this year hasn't played the full season, and honestly, don't discount the boost finals adrenalin will give teams [all teams].. ..i actually think the finals race is about as wide open as it has been in years..
Author:  BigBlueWave [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 1:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
To me, Its looking more obvious that the Hawks will finish 5th. They are a better side than Fremantle. Hawks are currently 1.5 games behind and 4%.

Fremantle have to play

Eagles - win
North - possible win
Swans - win
Hawthorn - loss
Carlton - possible win (but I have a feeling we will win this one)

Hawthorn have to play

Port - win
Swans - win
Melbourne - win
Fremantle - win
Collingwood - possible win

I reckon we will have to play back to back Fremantle. Very confident we will make the 8. Both Sydney and North have just as tough a run home as us.
Author:  The Normal One [ Mon Jul 26, 2010 8:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can make the finals with 11 wins
Well we haven't beaten anyone from the list of sides we would face in the elimination final, so let's get our 11th win quickly and spend 3-4 weeks developing alternate game plans. Maybe we can confuse the opposition to sneak a won in the first week, then flog a team, we know we can beat in the weeks after. End result Premiership 17!
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